The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

zagubov wrote: »

Hence EFTA beckons more alluringly.;)

I think as time goes on you're right. Not least because it will be hard for the Yes side to lose a referendum if they present it as the preferred short/medium term option. Those that have swung from Yes to No off the back of still being in the EU would happily vote Yes again. Those from No to Yes happy enough with it too.

Also would completely negate all the 'hard border' stuff doing the rounds so forcefully. Sturgeon has already introduced the notion of doing whatever the rUK does regarding the customs union.

I guess we'll see in the coming months. If May ever gets round to leaving the EU first.

zagubov

I don’t know any better than the next person what’t the best outcome for the UK in the coming years. Thought we were doing well benefiting from the EU with very limited problems arising from it. But the rest of the UK decided that wasn’t good enough.

I still feel the best outcome would be:
-the UK in the political whatever-it-is that the EU is, where it’s too big to be digested whole.
-the UK in the original trade pact it invented: EFTA
-a UK where its constituent parts are loosely connected so that parts can be in EU/EEA. Which may mean that the UK has an internal border like Denmark has.
-a UK where its constituent parts are loosely connected so that parts can be in EFTA/EEA. Which may mean that the UK has constituent parts which are in a sovereignty association like the Cook Islands have with New Zealand.
I would note that the latter two outcomes would involve parliaments for England, and perhaps more devolution inside England, should referenda suggest they be suitable outcomes.
Whatever it takes, needs to be done.

Shakethedisease

Scottish Labour in particular are going to have an extremely difficult time with that. Personally I'm looking forward to seeing them trying it lol.

Spoke too soon. Some aren't even going to try..

I joined Labour 29 years ago to fight the Tories, not to share platforms and campaign rooms with them. During the 1980s and 1990s, John Smith and Donald Dewar couldn’t always stop the Conservatives but Scots knew where they stood. Those same folk were first confused, and then angry, when they saw Labour teaming up with the Tories against independence...

..Kezia Dugdale’s call for a “new Act of Union” is not a rediscovery of the brave and radical spirit that delivered devolution. When we have an immediate crisis, with Downing Street chaotically lurching towards a hard Brexit, it is a distracting and hollow sales pitch. Her job is to stand up for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to stay in the European Union.

This means having the courage to work constructively with the Scottish Government to build the widest possible coalition to put pressure on Theresa May. The former leader of Edinburgh City Council, Mark Lazarowicz, has urged Labour to look seriously at the First Minister’s Norway-style Brexit deal for Scotland. He joins a growing list of senior figures in the party who have become much more open-minded about Scotland’s constitutional future.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14993758.How_the_sinking_ship_of_Scottish_Labour__my_party__can_be_salvaged/

Changing times. Dugdale is probably for the chop after May council elections. After which Home Rule and fully supporting Sturgeon in her EU/Single Market efforts will be the order of the day for Scottish Labour. As support for the Union crumbles still further in Scotland.

Shakethedisease

zagubov wrote: »

I don’t know any better than the next person what’t the best outcome for the UK in the coming years. Thought we were doing well benefiting from the EU with very limited problems arising from it. But the rest of the UK decided that wasn’t good enough.

I still feel the best outcome would be:
-the UK in the political whatever-it-is that the EU is, where it’s too big to be digested whole.
-the UK in the original trade pact it invented: EFTA
-a UK where its constituent parts are loosely connected so that parts can be in EU/EEA. Which may mean that the UK has an internal border like Denmark has.
-a UK where its constituent parts are loosely connected so that parts can be in EFTA/EEA. Which may mean that the UK has constituent parts which are in a sovereignty association like the Cook Islands have with New Zealand.
I would note that the latter two outcomes would involve parliaments for England, and perhaps more devolution inside England, should referenda suggest they be suitable outcomes.
Whatever it takes, needs to be done.

Is all so uncertain right now. May needs to outline at least the basics soon, but she must know that whatever she does she'll lose support from one Brexit 'faction', for want of a better word, or another.

Sturgeon and the SNP have played it well so far politically ( viewed from Scotland at least ). Exploring all options and putting them on the table for Westminster just as they said they would. Scottish Labour are going to blow any minute. Someone is leaking confidential internal polls among other things to newspapers in an effort to fatally undermine Dugdale. The party is trailing well behind the Tories now. Whoever replaces her will want Home Rule and Scotland in the Single Market as well ( Dugdale has gone all 'access to' rather than 'membership of' recently which hasn't gone unnoticed).

The SNP would also be the biggest fools going to ignore those on their own side who don't want to be in the EU either. Personally, I think it's a separate issue. You either want independence and the ability to make your own choices on these things or not. Each to their own.

Politically though, EFTA is the most appealing option right across the board in Scotland at the present time. So am glad Sturgeon has kept all options open. All just waiting for May and her plans now I suppose. Maybe she'll kick Article 50 down the road a bit again.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Changing times. Dugdale is probably for the chop after May council elections. After which Home Rule and fully supporting Sturgeon in her EU/Single Market efforts will be the order of the day for Scottish Labour. As support for the Union crumbles still further in Scotland.

You mean support for multi-party politics in Scotland crumbles surely?
As some of us predicted and you pooh-poohed at the time, politics in Scotland is becoming a binary choice. You honestly didn't think Unionist Scots would conveniently split their votes amongst the Unionist parties ad infinitum did you?
Nationalism in Scotland has prompted the re-birth of the Scottish Tory party, who'd have thought it?
You didn't see that coming did you?😀

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Is all so uncertain right now. May needs to outline at least the basics soon, but she must know that whatever she does she'll lose support from one Brexit 'faction', for want of a better word, or another.

No she doesn't. You've obviously have lived a very settled life. Negotiations simply aren't conducted in such an open fashion. That's the reality. Bark as much as you want. But the people that really matter won't take any notice. Nor will ordinary people either. As they've enough good sense to know better.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

You mean support for multi-party politics in Scotland crumbles surely?
As some of us predicted and you pooh-poohed at the time, politics in Scotland is becoming a binary choice. You honestly didn't think Unionist Scots would conveniently split their votes amongst the Unionist parties ad infinitum did you?
Nationalism in Scotland has prompted the re-birth of the Scottish Tory party, who'd have thought it?
You didn't see that coming did you?😀

It's not coming. It's was a straight swap between Labour to SNP of younger voters in the aftermath of the referendum, and a more recent limited swap between what's left of Labour to the Tories. However, this swap is primarily concentrated in the older demographics of Scottish voters between those for whom the Union means more than anything else ( George Square 15th Sept 2014 ) and Blairites deeply unimpressed by Corbyn.

Scottish Labour's core vote of older traditional voters has gone. And what's gone to the Conservatives A) won't last due to demographics and Isn't even close to SNP vote shares currently.

And in my own personal view. Rather than concentrating on independence polling showing who will vote. What's going to do for any second Better Together-esque campaign next time round... is the sheer number out of those half a million older traditional Labour voters still left.. who won't vote at all, severely reducing any No vote from 2014.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No she doesn't. You've obviously have lived a very settled life. Negotiations simply aren't conducted in such an open fashion. That's the reality. Bark as much as you want. But the people that really matter won't take any notice. Nor will ordinary people either. As they've enough good sense to know better.

You're living in a fools paradise if you expect Westminster MP's and the rest of the country to sit back for two years while negotiations are conducted in complete secrecy. In fact it's doubtful they'll start at all until MP's know what May and Co are at least aiming for before talks start.

May will have to let MP's know what her starting point is. She knows when she does though, that there are going to be a lot of Brexit voters left unhappy. Her popularity ratings are already falling fast over the last few polls and they'll no doubt fall further.

This is discounting EU officials singing like canaries as soon as talks start anyway.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're living in a fools paradise if you expect Westminster MP's and the rest of the country to sit back for two years while negotiations are conducted in complete secrecy. In fact it's doubtful they'll start at all until MP's know what May and Co are at least aiming for before talks start.

May will have to let MP's know what her starting point is. She knows when she does though, that there are going to be a lot of Brexit voters left unhappy. Her popularity ratings are already falling fast over the last few polls and they'll no doubt fall further.

This is discounting EU officials singing like canaries as soon as talks start anyway.

two years doesn't seem so long, when scotland still hasn't been told what currency it will use when Iscotland occurs;
one would think that was a fairly simply issue, compared with the complexity of brexit.

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

two years doesn't seem so long, when scotland still hasn't been told what currency it will use when Iscotland occurs;
one would think that was a fairly simply issue, compared with the complexity of brexit.

Brexit isn't complicated. No FOM - out you go 100%, no Single Market, no deal. See ya.