The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

So Labour, the SNP, the Greens plus assorted basket cases are all going to chase the votes of the 45% while leaving the 55% to the Tories.

As a Tory that suits me just fine. I can think of little better in fact except for the SNP voting in that nice Mr Corbyn as leader perhaps once he's done trashing the Labour Party.

A fair proportion of the 55% are Labour voters, who voted No expecting Labour to be in power. There's a lot of discussion about now about how they don't want to simply become enablers for the Conservative party. A lot of them thought the ref campaign was Salmond v's Milliband and voted No fully expecting a Labour govt. The mood is now definitely shifting very quickly among those particular No voters.

I went along with the Labour position in 2014 after a lot of humming and hawing, thinking we would get a Miliband Government and then some sort of federalism. But then look what happened. I’ve had enough of it.

You are nearly there in your analysis when you say “Do we ALWAYS have to sacrifice Scotland before the interests of the UK labour party ?” That is exactly what Scottish Labour did in 2014. They thought that the union had to saved for no other reason than the long term interests of The Party.

Scottish independence won’t get rid of Tories, but it will get rid of Tory governments. Scotland is not *full of* Tories, but it does *contain some* Tories. Let’s take this opportunity to remove the nationalists versus socialists nonsense from intelligent political debate.

Despite all the partisan politics, traditional Scottish Labour supporters have more in common with the SNP than we do with the Tories. Maybe it is best to combine our forces and move on. I just don’t see things ever going back to how they were, and it is at the point where we have become enablers of Tory rule from Westminster, and they are laughing at us behind our backs

There is no point to Labour in Scotland any more. The SNP and Greens outflank them on the left and on independence, while the Tories outflank them on the right and on unionism.
Those who still cling to Labour for whatever reason have a choice to make. Either back ALL the progressive parties in their support of independence as Scotland’s best chance of a prosperous future, or back the Tories.

Continuing to ask Scottish Labour voters to keep on voting in and for an arrangement where our bigger neighbour can
return the Tory party to power time and time again to govern Scotland is becoming increasingly nonsensical.

The above are all from the same Scottish Labour website that has run two Home Rule supporting articles in two days.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

A fair proportion of the 55% are Labour voters, who voted No expecting Labour to be in power. There's a lot of discussion about now about how they don't want to simply become enablers for the Conservative party. A lot of them thought the ref campaign was Salmond v's Milliband and voted No fully expecting a Labour govt. The mood is now definitely shifting very quickly among those particular No voters.

Any quotes from the traditional dyed-in-the-wool SNP voters from 'oop North' who voted NO much to Salmond`s chagrin in the indyref?
There`s more to this than the central belt`s alleged visceral dislike of the Tories.There`s a whole Scotland out there.

kabayiri

Can somebody clarify?

If there were a vote for Brexit, would the SNP demand another independence referendum regardless?

Or would it depend on the IN/OUT percentage split up in Scotland?

elantan

There wouldn't really be any point in a second referendum if Scotland voted alongside the rest of the UK to leave the EU ... I imagine it would depend on %

CLAPTON

elantan wrote: »

There wouldn't really be any point in a second referendum if Scotland voted alongside the rest of the UK to leave the EU ... I imagine it would depend on %

the sole and only criteria the SNP have for 'demanding' a new referendum is whether they think there is an excellent probability of winning

all the rubbish about brexit and other things is false

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

Any quotes from the traditional dyed-in-the-wool SNP voters from 'oop North' who voted NO much to Salmond`s chagrin in the indyref?
There`s more to this than the central belt`s alleged visceral dislike of the Tories.There`s a whole Scotland out there.

The Labour party were well ahead in the UK polls at the time of the referendum campaign. They'd been leading in the UK polls since 2012. Many Scottish Labour voters absolutely did vote No thinking Labour would be in office.

They won't do so again with the prospect of another five or ten years of UK Conservative government in front of them. And you can take that to the bank 100%. A whole Scotland there may be, but there's no where near enough in the way of Tories to stop a Yes vote next time if Labour voters and the entirety of the Scottish media jump ship.

And it's looking like they're thinking about it.

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

the sole and only criteria the SNP have for 'demanding' a new referendum is whether they think there is an excellent probability of winning

all the rubbish about brexit and other things is false

The wouldn't have an excellent probability of winning unless a majority of Scots wanted it won. Is just democracy, the SNP will have to wait and see what happens re public opinion if there is a Brexit.

Cameron is learning all about calling referendums when not sure of winning right now. Never a good idea.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

A fair proportion of the 55% are Labour voters, who voted No expecting Labour to be in power. There's a lot of discussion about now about how they don't want to simply become enablers for the Conservative party. A lot of them thought the ref campaign was Salmond v's Milliband and voted No fully expecting a Labour govt. The mood is now definitely shifting very quickly among those particular No voters.















The above are all from the same Scottish Labour website that has run two Home Rule supporting articles in two days.

The only problem with your prmemise is that voters tell pollseters that they don't want independence to avoid a Tory Government.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The wouldn't have an excellent probability of winning unless a majority of Scots wanted it won. Is just democracy, the SNP will have to wait and see what happens re public opinion if there is a Brexit.

Cameron is learning all about calling referendums when not sure of winning right now. Never a good idea.

The SNP will only demand a new referendum if they think they can win easily
Brexit is only relevant if and only if, the result leads to a very significant surge in the wish to vote for independence.

Better if there was a fairer and more equal society in the UK, but Cameron wishes to bribe the scots and the scots wish to receive the bribes, for the detriment of all.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

The only problem with your prmemise is that voters tell pollseters that they don't want independence to avoid a Tory Government.

Scotland has voted to 'keep the Tories out' for decades. Ruth Davidson's campaign was run on constitutional lines ( stopping another referendum ) and deleting all references to the fact she was a Conservative. Not party political lines.

Labour voters in Sept 2014 thought they were voting No against Salmond, and that Miliband would be in office May 2015. They were very wrong. In any future referendum all they have to do is stay home and 'abstain'. The hardcore unionist vote won't be enough.

This election was encouraging for the 'Ruth Davidson party' I'll admit. But its not a Tory revival. It's a unionist one that only even then garnered only 23% of the vote. Labour votes in the FPTP section were in front of the Conservatives. The list system simply worked in the Tories favour this time round. The SNP far and away took the majority of votes to be had. There will be no 'list' option in a future referendum and a lot of Labour voters, activists and even former First Minsters, and Deputy leaders. Are now leaning towards autonomy. The tide is turning there.




I'd say that any future ref is still years away. Only it feels like the Brexit camp have ramped up a few gears since the local elections/Mayor elections are over. Battle buses, and Johnson in all the newspapers pulling no punches in a Trump kind of way. Everything the Remain camp have thrown is being laughed at a bit for being far too OTT. Cameron is dodging face to face debates once again.

I hope Nicola is preparing just in case.