The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

So you're basing your facts on unknowns?

Trade could also go up.

If there is no free trade deal between the EU and the UK (minus Scotland), in your world, trade could go up?

Are you seriously suggesting the above as a possible outcome?

I'll refer you back to the academic analysis (by Scottish academics) on the consequences of implementing a border with the rest of the UK.

Simply adding a border, even soft, will result in a GDP drop for both Scotland and the rest of the UK. It's been proven the world over, Scotland and the rest of the UK would need to be unique to buck that trend.

So if adding a border generally results in a GDP drop, what do you think that means in terms of trade? Has it gone up? Has it gone down?

Then factor in that the EU will be in control of your trade arrangements (way to go independence!). If the EU do a deal with the UK that is bad for Scotland and you're going to have to join the EU regardless, especially if you kick off the referendum before the negotiations are complete, do you think that this EU deal in conjunction with the addition of a border is going to increase Scottish trade with the rest of the UK?

I mean, has it even occurred to any of you that the EU will be negotiating with the UK in the coming years, and the SNP are telling you that there will be a choice between the Union or the EU if that deal is not to their liking.

And so, if the deal is not to their (SNP) liking it means that it harms Scottish trade (11% of it).

If the deal harms Scottish trade, what does joining the EU and harming Scottish > rUK trade (64%) achieve? The EU will have been negotiating a deal with your LARGEST TRADING PARTNER, without Scotland at the negotiating table on the side of the EU.

The idea that Scotland will be independent and can do what is best for Scotland in this scenario is incredibly stupid. Honestly incredible.

The idiocy is immense.

sss555s

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

If there is no free trade deal between the EU and the UK (minus Scotland), in your world, trade could go up?

Are you seriously suggesting the above as a possible outcome?


The idea that Scotland will be independent and can do what is best for Scotland in this scenario is incredibly stupid. Honestly incredible.

The idiocy is immense.

It is most certainly possible, I never said it was probable but you have no idea what the figure will be long term. Currency may play a part.

You seem to like to imply everyone is stupid that disagrees with you while you're championing UK independence and demonising Scottish independence all seems a bit hypocritical.

It doesn't take much research to realise that the general consensus outside the UK is that the Brexiteers are, in your words "incredibly stupid"

Maybe we should be called Dumb and Dumber

.string.

sss555s wrote: »

Trade could also go up.

I can think of a way the trade between a separated Scotland and rUK could go up.

Going away from the implausible idea that Scotland would "stay" in the EU and needs to prove its financial health including manageable debts, before it is let into the EU, including recognition by the UN and the rest of it;

In any case, Scotland will need its own central bank and its own currency, a currency which will plummet, of that I am sure, and with it value of the capital and wages of Scottish people (including you Hamish!).

I, as a consumer, am interested in where things I buy come from and their price. I have a general rule of buying British whenever I can unless the alternative is significantly cheaper. I put a nominal difference of 10% on that to define the barrier when I think about it.

So with a reduced Scottish pound/groat or whatever, it could be that Scottish Products, although they are no longer, to me, home products, are cheap enough for me to be tempted.
But of course not buying things like Scottish Jam (which I do now) is hardly an economic thunderbolt and other trade would count more I suppose.

I already changed my house insurance a year or so back from a Scottish-based company to one registered in England. This was not directly because of nationalistic reasons but indirectly because when the insurance price went up, as an exercise I wondered what would happen if, at that time, the YES campaign won the day. To my surprise I found that I could save around £150/year, so I swapped. I would not have occurred to me to look without that referendum being somewhat sluggish in that type of thing (swapping contracts).

I have to admit that the above dilemma on whether I should buy Scottish Jam is hardly a sound case for claiming that trade will stay the same, but I can't think of a better example.

sss555s

.string. wrote: »

I can think of a way the trade between a separated Scotland and rUK could go up.

I, as a consumer, am interested in where things I buy come from and their price. I have a general rule of buying British whenever I can unless the alternative is significantly cheaper. I put a nominal difference of 10% on that to define the barrier when I think about it.

So with a reduced Scottish pound/groat or whatever, it could be that Scottish Products, although they are no longer, to me, home products, are cheap enough for me to be tempted.
But of course not buying things like Scottish Jam (which I do now) is hardly an economic thunderbolt and other trade would count more I suppose.

I already changed my house insurance a year or so back from a Scottish-based company to one registered in England. This was not directly because of nationalistic reasons but indirectly because when the insurance price went up, as an exercise I wondered what would happen if, at that time, the YES campaign won the day. To my surprise I found that I could save around £150/year, so I swapped. I would not have occurred to me to look without that referendum being somewhat sluggish in that type of thing (swapping contracts).

I have to admit that the above dilemma on whether I should buy Scottish Jam is hardly a sound case for claiming that trade will stay the same, but I can't think of a better example.

You're on the right lines. It's all possible and if you're not buying our jam then we will just market it elsewhere.

I think your insurance isn't related. The best thing is to check every year as they all use loyalty or laziness as a good excuse to increase the premium annually.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

It is most certainly possible, I never said it was probable but you have no idea what the figure will be long term. Currency may play a part.

You seem to like to imply everyone is stupid that disagrees with you while you're championing UK independence and demonising Scottish independence all seems a bit hypocritical.

It doesn't take much research to realise that the general consensus outside the UK is that the Brexiteers are, in your words "incredibly stupid"

Maybe we should be called Dumb and Dumber

It's also possible that tomorrow I'll be crowned king of the universe, it's unlikely, but possible.

I'm not championing anything apart from the economic numbers with regards to whether or not Scottish people should choose independence or not. It's as simple as that.

Right now you benefit from an integrated market. That is a fact.

It looks like you're going to be asked to choose between the two, the UK integrated market, or the EU and the single market.

So naturally, a rational individual would assess which market best helps them and the people they share their country with.

What amount of trade is easier to replace should it all disappear? 11% or 64%?

What amount of trade is easier to replace should a proportion of it disappear? 11% or 64%?

What amount of trade would be easier to increase? EU or rUK trade?

Now if you've looked at the Scottish government trade statistics you'll note that Scottish trade with rUK has grown faster than trade with the EU. Should the UK as a whole get a 'bad deal' from the EU that will present opportunity to Scottish business to steal some UK business from the EU. Increasing your trade within a market you're fully integrated in - far easier than the EU single market.

Does none of this make sense?

.string.

sss555s wrote: »

I think your insurance isn't related. The best thing is to check every year as they all use loyalty or laziness as a good excuse to increase the premium annually.

No I don't think the cost was related to the Referendum, not directly, but my change was a consequence of it - a matter of curiosity.

As a general rule you are right about insurance costs jumping up although the Insurance I mentioned has stayed the same apart from a very minor rise.

kabayiri

.string. wrote: »

..
So with a reduced Scottish pound/groat or whatever, it could be that Scottish Products, although they are no longer, to me, home products, are cheap enough for me to be tempted.
But of course not buying things like Scottish Jam (which I do now) is hardly an economic thunderbolt and other trade would count more I suppose.
...

Some pragmatic points and things to chew on. :T

My extension to what you describe is how could the Scottish government position itself now to take advantage of the kind of price disruptor you describe.

It's not just financially beneficial, but it would calm nerves in the transition period.

My biggest worry for both UK outside the EU and iScotland is how fragile the economy seems to be. Even a potential loss of business confidence causes panic in financial markets.

The loss of rUK customers from Scottish retail banks would be a worry though. I'd be adopting a defensive stance and switching to an English bank. In fact, I should be doing this because I have too much in the one bank anyway.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Some pragmatic points and things to chew on. :T

My extension to what you describe is how could the Scottish government position itself now to take advantage of the kind of price disruptor you describe.

It's not just financially beneficial, but it would calm nerves in the transition period.

My biggest worry for both UK outside the EU and iScotland is how fragile the economy seems to be. Even a potential loss of business confidence causes panic in financial markets.

The loss of rUK customers from Scottish retail banks would be a worry though. I'd be adopting a defensive stance and switching to an English bank. In fact, I should be doing this because I have too much in the one bank anyway.

We heard all this before in the last ref, people saying they were switching en masse to English based companies for financial products etc.

However again Brexit adds significant uncertainty even to that now.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's also possible that tomorrow I'll be crowned king of the universe, it's unlikely, but possible.

I'm not championing anything apart from the economic numbers with regards to whether or not Scottish people should choose independence or not. It's as simple as that.

Right now you benefit from an integrated market. That is a fact.

It looks like you're going to be asked to choose between the two, the UK integrated market, or the EU and the single market.

So naturally, a rational individual would assess which market best helps them and the people they share their country with.

What amount of trade is easier to replace should it all disappear? 11% or 64%?

What amount of trade is easier to replace should a proportion of it disappear? 11% or 64%?

What amount of trade would be easier to increase? EU or rUK trade?

Now if you've looked at the Scottish government trade statistics you'll note that Scottish trade with rUK has grown faster than trade with the EU. Should the UK as a whole get a 'bad deal' from the EU that will present opportunity to Scottish business to steal some UK business from the EU. Increasing your trade within a market you're fully integrated in - far easier than the EU single market.

Does none of this make sense?

But from your own whytepaper clips, doesn't Whisky account for a full quarter of ALL UK food and drink exports ?

And land 60% of the UK fish catch ? I don't think things are quite as simple as string deciding not to buy Scottish jam. Or a straight boycott of 64% of Scottish goods and products.

There's also the political situation on top of all that. Whereby while trade is currently an unknown and might be damaged by Scotland leaving the UK. There's still the 100% certainty of a Conservative Govt in charge perhaps for a long time. I do not say this just to annoy you, but it does have to be taken into account. Not only a Brexit Scots didn't vote for, but a Tory Govt which currently has only 1 sitting MP in Scotland implementing that, and lots of other unpopular policies in the near future in what could be an increasingly closed off UK in the next few decades. It's a huge factor whether you want to recognise it or not.

mayonnaise

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

What amount of trade is easier to replace should it all disappear? 11% or 64%?

What amount of trade is easier to replace should a proportion of it disappear? 11% or 64%?

During the brexit debate, when it was pointed out that nearly half the UK's exports go to the EU, it was always swiftly dismissed with a 'we won't stop trading with them, you fool!'.
And here you waffle on about replacing and disappearing trade. :rotfl: