The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

.string.

Talking of master plans, the SNP version which it is trying to sell to the Scottish electorate, is for Scotland to join the EU. They cynically use the words "remain in the EU" despite having been told in no uncertain terms that is not an option. It's tosh if course but a rather typical approach.

One Archilles heel of the SNP is that they have fallen head over heels in love with their own machinations. They think they alone can do canny diplomatic things; well the surprises are starting.

The UK now has its own Dragon Lady in charge, in the form of Teresa May and she is now going on the offensive.

Brexit will 'enhance' Scotland's global standing

On the one side - the SNP with its readily discredited claim that joining the EU is going to be easy and instantaneous and the alternative of leaving the UK, outside both trading partners without a paddle (or subsidies come to that) for an indefinite time until Scottish Fortunes match the new level of living standards foisted on it by the SNP.

--- and on the other the optimistic, exciting prospect of the whole world as trading partner as the future which the UK is working towards with all its strength as a great trading nation.

Does the SNP keep blathering on about joining the EU of milk and honey where subsidies continue to roll in and Scotland toes the line with roughly 1% of MEP representation.

I can't say that either of these sides is completely realistic, but that's not the point in a battle for the hearts and minds and whereas the SNP (and Scotland) is on it's own with the EU option, with the outward looking Team GB it is not alone and can piggy back on the broader shoulders of the UK.

It will be interesting to see how these two visions play out. There's more than one game in town

A few sleepless nights for the SNP Dragon Lady methinks.

Hintza

EX-SNP MP Natalie McGarry charged!

(she had the party whip withdrawn)

Following an interview she was charged with several offences, including embezzlement of funds, breach of trust and an offence under the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37487841

That's two down 54 to go.

CLAPTON

Hintza wrote: »

EX-SNP MP Natalie McGarry charged!

(she had the party whip withdrawn)

Following an interview she was charged with several offences, including embezzlement of funds, breach of trust and an offence under the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37487841

That's two down 51 to go.

innocent until proved guilty or the scottish equivalent.

.string.

Give us clarity on what Brexit means to avoid economic problems

Who does she think she's kidding (except for myopic acolytes).

The nature of Brexit will not be known until it is done, but if she really wants to know how negotiations will be approached she will need to actually take up the offer by May of being fully involved rather than sitting on the sidelines with nothing in mind except the Indy agenda and whining about not knowing anything.

David Davis has explained the process well enough in a meeting which afaik the SNP did not bother to attend (HoC committee of something or other). He said that different options were being costed to know which potential negotiation points had merit, which were difficult and how much (money wise) agreement on them was worth to the UK economy. That is extremely sensitive information because it would guide the UK on which issues it would need to insist on, or barter away or even bluff about. That is not information that can be made public because it would give away a large chunk of the UK negotiation strategy.

In the absence of trustworthy involvement by Sturgeon, I, personally, would not divulge anything at all about that detail to Sturgeon. I wouldn't trust her to keep her mouth shut.

It is one more area where the obsession which the SNP has about independence is failing the Scots by not being constructively involved.

I would not be surprised, however, if some key issues are released during the Tory Party Conference.

Rolandtheroadie

CLAPTON wrote: »

innocent until proved guilty or the scottish equivalent.

Yep, there's always what's known as that !!!!!!! verdict. Not proven.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The latest polling analysis is interesting - (from memory, and to summarise) there's been about a 12% swing from No to Yes following the Brexit vote.

The problem for the SNP/Yes campaign is there's also been about a 12% swing from Yes to No.

So if Yes had managed to retain their previous support base for indy they'd now be at close to 60% or so in the polls.

But because the churn in support beneath the surface has gone both ways the top line numbers have only moved a point or two.

It'll be interesting to see which way the numbers move once the Brexit deal is clearer, single market or not, etc.

The polls are unlikely to stay the static either way. Some of them aren't including Eu nationals or 16/17 year olds either ( weighting by EU ref vote ). A rough guide, yes. An indicator to the result of a second independence ref maybe 18 months or two years from now. Nope.

Those that have gone from Yes to No are particularly open to changing their minds, having voted Yes before. Level of undecideds has also swung back up significantly.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Give us clarity on what Brexit means to avoid economic problems

Who does she think she's kidding (except for myopic acolytes).

The nature of Brexit will not be known until it is done, but if she really wants to know how negotiations will be approached she will need to actually take up the offer by May of being fully involved rather than sitting on the sidelines with nothing in mind except the Indy agenda and whining about not knowing anything.

David Davis has explained the process well enough in a meeting which afaik the SNP did not bother to attend (HoC committee of something or other). He said that different options were being costed to know which potential negotiation points had merit, which were difficult and how much (money wise) agreement on them was worth to the UK economy. That is extremely sensitive information because it would guide the UK on which issues it would need to insist on, or barter away or even bluff about. That is not information that can be made public because it would give away a large chunk of the UK negotiation strategy.

In the absence of trustworthy involvement by Sturgeon, I, personally, would not divulge anything at all about that detail to Sturgeon. I wouldn't trust her to keep her mouth shut.

It is one more area where the obsession which the SNP has about independence is failing the Scots by not being constructively involved.

I would not be surprised, however, if some key issues are released during the Tory Party Conference.

You know what. They way some folks go on in this thread is as if Nicola Sturgeon personally engineered a Leave vote in the EU ref solely in order to call a second independence referendum. Take some deep breaths.

A little reality now and again would be much welcome. This was elsewhere's call. Scotland, NI, London and Gibraltar will have to deal with the fallout as best they can. But at the same time absolutely must take into account the majority of votes for the geographic area they are in power in. I don't think it's acceptable on any level that Sturgeon could simply discount 62% of the Scottish vote. And am not really sure why anyone would think otherwise since Theresa May won't be discounting the 52% that voted Leave.

My prediction is that Sturgeon and the SNP will call another referendum whatever before the UK exit's the EU. There is unlikely to be another constitutional change on this magnitude for the next 30 years. And there's no way they'll wait to be taken out of the EU, only to have to go through years of hassles re-applying. OR being stuck with right wing Tory governments obsessed with isolating the UK off and borderline racial hysterics over migrant numbers for the next decade.

Sure they might lose another referendum ( who knows ). But not calling one also risks Scottish independence being decades away anyway due to all the Brexit changes. Imo the SNP/Greens and other independence groups will go for broke when Article 50 is invoked. Will attempt to remain in the EU with little change in that direction rather than go through years of out/then in processes.

Also there are a lot of leavers who keep pointing out that there are area's which might default to Scotland/Holyrood rather than Westminster ( fishing/ agriculture control ).. they'll probably go for those too. It's not either or which keeps being presented in the media in Scotland. The Scottish Govt can pursue independence/staying in the EU at the same time as making legal approaches to challenge where current powers go in the event Scotland does leave.

Holyrood would be handed a raft of new powers if the UK votes to leave the EU, a leading academic has said. Prof Drew Scott said powers over areas such as fishing and farming that are currently wielded by Brussels would automatically default back to Holyrood.
He said this would create a "significant constitutional debate" about how these new powers should be exercised and paid for.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35601764

Michael Gove, Tom Harris and a raft of other prominent leavers spent the EU referendum campaign telling Scots the above. They shouldn't be surprised if the Scottish Govt are looking in to it ( at the same time as timing a referendum vote ). Sillars has lost the plot as should retire asap. He seems at odds with the SNP nowadays simply for the sake of it, getting headlines and backed ultra left wing RISE during recent Holyrood elections.

Also there's this for NI and Scotland.

Philip Sim Zero punches pulled by Institute for Government during Brexit questioning... "Will there be a constitutional crisis?" "Probably, yes."

<--- was in terms of the UK govt having not the foggiest idea of the pandora's box they've opened a la devolved Brexit v's UK Brexit and what to do about it.

Theresa May has some pretty huge problems ahead.

Hintza

Shakethedisease wrote: »

My prediction is that Sturgeon and the SNP will call another referendum whatever before the UK exit's the EU.

As you well know she has no authority to call another referendum. (Another may be called but it won't be by Sturgeon)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Sillars has lost the plot as should retire asap.

Not towing the party line eh?

Shakethedisease

Hintza wrote: »

As you well know she has no authority to call another referendum. (Another may be called but it won't be by Sturgeon)

If you're desperately clinging onto the vain hope that the only way you can prevent independence is to try and stop another independence referendum. Then you're in very deep trouble already.

Sturgeon will ask Westminster if the Scottish Govt can hold a legally binding one. Will wish with all her might that the request be refused since it will boost independence support up by several points. She will get her wish as 'permission' will be denied. Then the Scottish Govt will simply call an advisory one anyway like the EU one was.

Salmond, who led the independence referendum in 2014, took the opportunity of the anniversary to say he thought Brexit meant there could be a second referendum in 2018. Asked whether he thought Westminster might block such a move he said: “That’s the least of my concerns. I had David Cameron tell me for a long time that he wouldn’t ‘grant’, as he put it, a referendum.
“A referendum isn’t for Westminster to grant. What’s even to grant, it’s an instrument?
“A referendum is for the Scottish parliament to agree and to legislate on. If the parliament does, then Westminster will have no alternative, no more than David Cameron had four years ago.”

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9376/exclusive-alex-salmond-says-westminster-will-have-no-alternative-allow-second-indyref

Note :- Scottish parliament to legislate on. Westminster calling any bluffs isn't going to happen.

Not towing the party line eh?

Sillars never has.

mayonnaise

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Then the Scottish Govt will simply call an advisory one anyway like the EU one was.

Brilliant!