The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Those that have gone from Yes to No are particularly open to changing their minds, having voted Yes before. .

And you could argue vice versa as well.

However the interesting part for me is that 10%-ish of the electorate - or a fifth of previous Yes voters - have switched to No. I genuinely thought they were on average more devoted to 'Indy no matter what and damn the consequences' than No voters were to the Union so I'm surprised.

I'm guessing the fishing crowd are a big part of that - and doubtless there will be some who understand the economic impact of the oil revenue drop - who else is in there do you think?

Leanne1812

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And you could argue vice versa as well.

However the interesting part for me is that 10%-ish of the electorate - or a fifth of previous Yes voters - have switched to No. I genuinely thought they were on average more devoted to 'Indy no matter what and damn the consequences' than No voters were to the Union so I'm surprised.

I'm guessing the fishing crowd are a big part of that - and doubtless there will be some who understand the economic impact of the oil revenue drop - who else is in there do you think?

I'd imagine, though I've no idea of any stats, those who feel being independent of the EU trumps an independent Scotland.

What would be your criteria to consider a Yes vote if you don't mind sharing?

Leanne1812

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Please inform us then. We'd all be interested to know.

I'd hazard a guess no one has a bl**dy clue where to start. There's probably no one I'd like to be less than Theresa May right now. I'll give her credit for stepping up to the top job with this mammoth task ahead.

Thrugelmir

Leanne1812 wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess no one has a bl**dy clue where to start. There's probably no one I'd like to be less than Theresa May right now. I'll give her credit for stepping up to the top job with this mammoth task ahead.

I'm interested in Shake's view.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Leanne1812 wrote: »

I'd imagine, though I've no idea of any stats, those who feel being independent of the EU trumps an independent Scotland.

Well yes, but other than fishermen can't think of many obvious segments of the Yes voters that come to mind?

What would be your criteria to consider a Yes vote if you don't mind sharing?

I've already made that clear.

Retaining EU membership or at worst full EEA/Single Market membership if and only if the UK does not.

To that extent I'd be in the 10% of No that would switch to Yes if the circumstances were right.

Leanne1812

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well yes, but other than fishermen can't think of many obvious segments of the Yes voters that come to mind?



I've already made that clear.

Retaining EU membership or at worst full EEA/Single Market membership if and only if the UK does not.

To that extent I'd be in the 10% of No that would switch to Yes if the circumstances were right.

Thanks for clarity.

Do you share the view of some that it will be incredibly difficult if not impossible for Scotland to retain membership?

I can't think of any other group who have changed from Yes to No. I've read a few comments regarding EU/ independent Scotland from people who want both but would ultimately prefer leaving the EU.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Do you share the view of some that it will be incredibly difficult if not impossible for Scotland to retain membership?

No.

If the UK was staying in the EU it would have been virtually impossible for Scotland to retain membership if we separated - we'd have needed to apply again from scratch.

But with the UK leaving it's a different story as the political imperative to not offend a member state no longer applies - and the legals change as well - if Scotland triggers a dissolution of the Union we should be able to retain membership via being a residual part of the Union that wishes to maintain the status quo re EU membership - and the EU would secretly welcome the chance to stick one to the Brexiteers I suspect.

kay0601

The_Last_Username wrote: »

Ah well you see ........... despite what some very shakey debaters may suggest, deep down Nicola knows that the SNP stand a slightly-better-than-evens chance of losing.
If they lose (twice in relatively short succession) it really would set indepenence back by decades.

We can but hope! Sturgeon and her ilk should get on with running the country instead of twittering on with the independence stuff imo.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No.

If the UK was staying in the EU it would have been virtually impossible for Scotland to retain membership if we separated - we'd have needed to apply again from scratch.

But with the UK leaving it's a different story as the political imperative to not offend a member state no longer applies - and the legals change as well - if Scotland triggers a dissolution of the Union we should be able to retain membership via being a residual part of the Union that wishes to maintain the status quo re EU membership - and the EU would secretly welcome the chance to stick one to the Brexiteers I suspect.

why would you want to do so much harm to scotland?
are you thinking of moving south?

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And you could argue vice versa as well.

However the interesting part for me is that 10%-ish of the electorate - or a fifth of previous Yes voters - have switched to No. I genuinely thought they were on average more devoted to 'Indy no matter what and damn the consequences' than No voters were to the Union so I'm surprised.

I'm guessing the fishing crowd are a big part of that - and doubtless there will be some who understand the economic impact of the oil revenue drop - who else is in there do you think?

There's enormous churn in the middle 10-15% of previous Yes and No voters. Undecideds are up also.

However, the three polls taken by different companies when it looked like Article 50 would be invoked immediately all show independence support +50% ( 6, 7 and 3% leads ). They fall again when Theresa May ( a remainer ) takes over from Cameron instead of the expected Boris Johnson who's keen to get out of the EU asap. Everyone's a bit meh at the moment. Including myself to be honest, I don't think Article 50 will be invoked anytime soon if May has anything to do with it. Seems like it will never happen.

Phoney war, calm before the storm and all that.