The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

So in short. The polls are wrong if they're not supporting the 'correct' answer, the politics is in favour of independence, so are the people who 'can be bothered' and everyone hates the Tories.

There's nothing to stand in the way of independence then? If all of the above were true the polls would reflect this unless the polls are lying.

Right?

Edit: it's been helpful to step back while I'm in Ukraine to think about it. When you do take a step back everything is seemingly against the idea of independence, the logistical aspects, the wider political aspects, the economic aspects.

It's just a dumb idea. There's no benefit to it at all. You'd get to make a few different choices with regards to politicians, they'll still screw people over, someone always loses out, and you'll be in a much more precarious position in the world. I understand that those advocating independence and arguing for it will not be able to take this step back and take stock of the reality of the proposed situation the pro independence gang in Holyrood want to put you in. They just want more power for themselves it seems.

Being in a country that only recently won it's own independence, but still experiences the spasms of new 'democracy' it's so easy to see how it can go very wrong in Scotland if you give the kids in Holyrood the purse and access to the matches to burn it's contents on vanity projects and misguided policies that they promised just to get elected. In this context we really are better together, the UK would be worse without Scotland and Scotland would be worse without the UK.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shakethedisease wrote: »

David Mundell is unlikely to ever say anything else if you're being honest.
Read like it could've been written in 2014 including the border stuff.
Brian Wilson, like Mundell is also unlikely ever to say anything else. One of the few Labour MP's in the late 1990's dead set against devolution and has continued in the same vein ever since with the carping.

Careful with the complacency is what unionist commentators are advising lately. Kenny Farquharson in the Times with dire warnings against having Ruth Davidson lead any No camp. And Euan McColm getting more than a little twitchy in the Scotsman. All seem to have accepted that a second referendum will take place.

Full article at link.

Hmm, strange how a few days can make such a difference eh?
From "twitchy" McColm in Thursday's Scotsman to "A second referendum on Scottish independence is likely to be called by Nicola Sturgeon in a year’s time" from Blair Jenkins in today's Scotsman:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/second-indyref-could-take-place-in-may-2018-1-4239143
Meaning (he says) "as early as" May 2018 for another indyref.

So despite the twitches, not enough clear signs of a swing yet then.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So in short. The polls are wrong if they're not supporting the 'correct' answer, the politics is in favour of independence, so are the people who 'can be bothered' and everyone hates the Tories.

There's nothing to stand in the way of independence then? If all of the above were true the polls would reflect this unless the polls are lying.

Right?

Edit: it's been helpful to step back while I'm in Ukraine to think about it. When you do take a step back everything is seemingly against the idea of independence, the logistical aspects, the wider political aspects, the economic aspects.

It's just a dumb idea. There's no benefit to it at all. You'd get to make a few different choices with regards to politicians, they'll still screw people over, someone always loses out, and you'll be in a much more precarious position in the world. I understand that those advocating independence and arguing for it will not be able to take this step back and take stock of the reality of the proposed situation the pro independence gang in Holyrood want to put you in. They just want more power for themselves it seems.

Being in a country that only recently won it's own independence, but still experiences the spasms of new 'democracy' it's so easy to see how it can go very wrong in Scotland if you give the kids in Holyrood the purse and access to the matches to burn it's contents on vanity projects and misguided policies that they promised just to get elected. In this context we really are better together, the UK would be worse without Scotland and Scotland would be worse without the UK.

No, in short polling now is subject to change once any campaign gets going, as Euan McColm points out below ,the 2011 election and the EU referendum proved.

A year before the last referendum, polls showed that fewer than 30 per cent of Scots were in favour of independence. This had been the case for years and not even two consecutive Holyrood election victories for the SNP had made much difference to the numbers.

By referendum day, not a kick in the bahookey off 45 per cent of Scots were committed to ending the Union with England. Sure, a 10 point victory for the Better Together campaign was decisive but the Yes 
Scotland campaign outran expectations by some considerable distance.

In March 2011, two months before the election, Labour held a double-digit lead over the SNP in the opinion polls,[23] 44% to 29%.[24] The SNP's support subsequently rallied, with the two parties level in April polling. In the final poll on the eve of the election, the SNP were eleven points clear of Labour.[23][25]

One should never underestimate the SNP or the Yes movements campaigning skills. I think that's the point unionist commentators are trying to make in recent twitchy articles. Those 47% polls at the moment are very unlikely to stay static and will move. Possibly in entirely the wrong direction for those that wish Scotland to stay in the UK.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Hmm, strange how a few days can make such a difference eh?
From "twitchy" McColm in Thursday's Scotsman to "A second referendum on Scottish independence is likely to be called by Nicola Sturgeon in a year’s time" from Blair Jenkins in today's Scotsman:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/second-indyref-could-take-place-in-may-2018-1-4239143
Meaning (he says) "as early as" May 2018 for another indyref.

So despite the twitches, not enough clear signs of a swing yet then.

Autumn 2018 is the vague date doing the rounds at the moment. It'll have to be within the two year window after May invokes Article 50. Jenkins is talking about one being called in 2017 with a ref the year afterwards. That's in line with the hints many others have been dropping recently, most notably Salmond.

Yes McColm is definitely twitchy.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, in short polling now is subject to change once any campaign gets going, as Euan McColm points out below ,the 2011 election and the EU referendum proved.

One should never underestimate the SNP or the Yes movements campaigning skills. I think that's the point unionist commentators are trying to make in recent twitchy articles. Those 47% polls at the moment are very unlikely to stay static and will move. Possibly in entirely the wrong direction for those that wish Scotland to stay in the UK.

You say probably in the wrong direction for those wishing to stay in the UK. Why? Because you believe that? There's plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise.

The whole thing would be far more credible if there was admission of minority, rudderless ideas, acceptance of current reality rather than the promise of never-never-land. Instead it just sounds like what the USSR used to tell my in-laws. Hollow promises, ideas and efforts.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You say probably in the wrong direction for those wishing to stay in the UK. Why? Because you believe that? There's plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise.

Do feel free to provide it then. Independence support going down. History dictates otherwise.

The whole thing would be far more credible if there was admission of minority, rudderless ideas, acceptance of current reality rather than the promise of never-never-land. Instead it just sounds like what the USSR used to tell my in-laws. Hollow promises, ideas and efforts.

That's Article 50 being invoked mate. Enjoy !

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The latest polling analysis is interesting - (from memory, and to summarise) there's been about a 12% swing from No to Yes following the Brexit vote.

The problem for the SNP/Yes campaign is there's also been about a 12% swing from Yes to No.

So if Yes had managed to retain their previous support base for indy they'd now be at close to 60% or so in the polls.

But because the churn in support beneath the surface has gone both ways the top line numbers have only moved a point or two.

It'll be interesting to see which way the numbers move once the Brexit deal is clearer, single market or not, etc.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Jim Sillars in The Herald:

"We cannot win by telling people who have suffered years of low wages, high levels of poverty, and sanctions, that independence offers more of the same. "To win the next referendum the Yes movement has to inspire our people to believe that once free from a debt-ridden UK, independent power exercised over our material and human resources will free them from austerity, and provide a better standard of living."

So now we wait for this master plan?
For how long, I wonder?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14762999.Scottish_independence_campaigners_should_focus_on_economy__says_ex_SNP_deputy/

CLAPTON

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Jim Sillars in The Herald:
So now we wait for this master plan?
For how long, I wonder?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14762999.Scottish_independence_campaigners_should_focus_on_economy__says_ex_SNP_deputy/

He means that the SNP should continue to lie to the people of Scotland just like they used to do.
after all, borrowing for 'investment' isn't really debt and of course never needs to be paid back.

TrickyTree83

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Jim Sillars in The Herald:
So now we wait for this master plan?
For how long, I wonder?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14762999.Scottish_independence_campaigners_should_focus_on_economy__says_ex_SNP_deputy/

It'll either never happen or be a load of rubbish like the last one.

Interesting how they say it should focus on the economy, that's the one area in particular where the argument for independence gets shot down in spectacular flames each and every time. Someone better think of a new 'whiskey export duty' meme to convince the gullible once again.