The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

And in other news Kezia Dugdale fully backs the union. But just not for her own party from whom she wants to gain far more Scottish centric independence and be able to have completely different policies than from Labour in England and Wales.

Speaking as she left the NEC meeting in London on Tuesday evening, Ms Dugdale said: "This is huge change for Scotland, I'm really pleased. "This is a substantial change, this is going to be an autonomous Scottish Labour party - we'll have our own say over policy, but we are crucially still part of the wider UK family, so it's good news for Scottish Labour."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37417697

This will be about the fifth or sixth time Scottish Labour has announced it's autonomy. But I don't think they've really thought this one through. At all.

elantan

I know .. Kez wanting independence for her party but stating the country should remain in the UK ... irony alert :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: some things you just cannae make up

elantan

Just no Kezia's day the day

Shakethedisease

Good article summing up how things may pan out with timing. ( Full article at link ).

As soon as negotiations to leave the EU start, Sturgeon can announce that further consultations with the UK government have failed to protect Scotland’s interests, and that a second independence referendum is justified. A referendum bill will quickly be enacted by the Edinburgh Parliament and Westminster will lack grounds to oppose it, given its acceptance before the 2014 vote of Scotland’s right to withdraw from the United Kingdom.
Besides, the Prime Minister will have bigger problems to deal with on both sides of a very English Channel.

If Downing Street delays triggering Brexit until autumn 2017, Sturgeon will have an additional six months to mobilise support for the SNP’s cause. This would allow more time for the Conservative government to hit a mid-term slump. It would also allow more time for the fissiparous Labour Party, the historic bulwark of support for Scotland to be governed from Westminster, to show Scots that the only alternative to having a Tory government supported by one-fifth of Scots is to have an SNP government in an independent Scotland.

The second referendum act is likely to leave the date of the referendum open. The official justification will be that time is needed to clarify the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU. The unstated reason will be that time is needed to make sure that the SNP can secure a majority for independence.

By the time a Scottish independence referendum is held, the economic costs of Brexit may be visible and Theresa May’s honeymoon with the electorate will be over. Moreover, the problems of immigration and by-election risks may be around. The growing awareness of the compromises required to achieve any agreement with Brussels will reveal cracks in the facade of Cabinet unity.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/09/23/brexit-snp-scotland-independence/

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Good article summing up how things may pan out with timing. ( Full article at link ).

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/09/23/brexit-snp-scotland-independence/

that's irrelevant

what is important is whether the polls show support for iscotland at round 60%

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

that's irrelevant

what is important is whether the polls show support for iscotland at round 60%

No poll will ever show that and polls aren't the only thing that are important.

Paul Robertson Sep 21 Strong support for #Scotland in Germany as #SPD parliamentarians queue for photos with @AngusRobertson

A_Medium_Size_Jock

"The arguments in support of Scotland’s place in the UK have got stronger, not weaker, since September 2014. And I do not think that the UK’s vote to leave the European Union does anything substantial to weaken the argument for the UK. It certainly does not make Scottish independence any more attractive, viable or beneficial a prospect than it was in 2014. Indeed quite the reverse.”

Says David Mundell, Secretary of State for Scotland.
http://www.cumnockchronicle.com/news/14759839.Mundell_____39_Case_for_Scotland_remaining_in_the_UK_is_stronger_than_ever__39_/

Re: independence

never in the modern era has it seemed less viable; as well as declining oil revenues there is the problem of the hard/soft border with its neighbour and biggest market, England, should Scotland rejoin the EU after the UK leaves.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/24/scotland-oil-money-nationalist-dream-nicola-sturgeon-independence

And regarding Nicola Sturgeon herself:

Faced with questions about the deeply concerning Audit Scotland report on Social Work provision this week, she responded with a shallow petulance that did no credit to herself or her office.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-glibness-ill-becomes-the-first-minister-1-4238949

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Says David Mundell, Secretary of State for Scotland.
http://www.cumnockchronicle.com/news/14759839.Mundell_____39_Case_for_Scotland_remaining_in_the_UK_is_stronger_than_ever__39_/

David Mundell is unlikely to ever say anything else if you're being honest.

Re: independence
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/24/scotland-oil-money-nationalist-dream-nicola-sturgeon-independence

Read like it could've been written in 2014 including the border stuff.

And regarding Nicola Sturgeon herself:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/brian-wilson-glibness-ill-becomes-the-first-minister-1-4238949

Brian Wilson, like Mundell is also unlikely ever to say anything else. One of the few Labour MP's in the late 1990's dead set against devolution and has continued in the same vein ever since with the carping.

Careful with the complacency is what unionist commentators are advising lately. Kenny Farquharson in the Times with dire warnings against having Ruth Davidson lead any No camp. And Euan McColm getting more than a little twitchy in the Scotsman. All seem to have accepted that a second referendum will take place.

The two years that have passed since the independence referendum may have seen the SNP become the dominant political force across the country but the party’s raison d’être remains of interest to the minority.

But polls change, don’t they?..

..There is no doubt that the clamour among nationalists for a second crack at breaking-up the UK grows ever stronger. And it would appear that Ms Sturgeon is minded to give them what they want.

Unionists should be concerned.

It is often said of Ms Sturgeon that she is a more cautious politician than Mr Salmond and this, thus far, has been true. But her remarks last weekend hint that she may be ready to go for broke on the independence question. This should not be surprising - there is always an element of risk in calling a referendum; no guarantee of success can be secured...

...Polls that continue to show a majority of Scots are in favour of the UK may provide some reassurance to Unionists but polls can shift. And it can take considerable effort to prevent them from doing so. If Nicola Sturgeon decides to call a second referendum, her secret weapon may be a pro-union campaign caught on the hop and woefully unprepared to take her on.

Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-no-campaign-is-vulnerable-without-a-leader-1-4236592

Full article at link.

TrickyTree83

Polls show support for independence, everyone in support of independence goes off their nut.

Polls show a swing against independence and then it's a case of - well polls can change.

There is always, and I mean always, an excuse or a deflection from the independence brigade.

If there was majority support for it and if it made sense there would be no need for polls or a discussion, particularly on the economics of independence.

The fact that it can be and you might say needs to be argued to me says that the movement is more of a minority than not, and that the party in power in Scotland will not enjoy the success it has previously, particularly after the white elephant of 2014 where their own supporters now demand "a serious discussion". If 48% was a high watermark based on utter rubbish then an honest discussion will eventually end up at the same destination as the vote in 2014.

It's just a massive waste of time, money and life. The movement would do better volunteering to look after the poor, sick and elderly than flog a horse long since dead.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Polls show support for independence, everyone in support of independence goes off their nut.

Polls show a swing against independence and then it's a case of - well polls can change.

There is always, and I mean always, an excuse or a deflection from the independence brigade.

If there was majority support for it and if it made sense there would be no need for polls or a discussion, particularly on the economics of independence.

The fact that it can be and you might say needs to be argued to me says that the movement is more of a minority than not, and that the party in power in Scotland will not enjoy the success it has previously, particularly after the white elephant of 2014 where their own supporters now demand "a serious discussion". If 48% was a high watermark based on utter rubbish then an honest discussion will eventually end up at the same destination as the vote in 2014.

It's just a massive waste of time, money and life. The movement would do better volunteering to look after the poor, sick and elderly than flog a horse long since dead.

There were only ever two polls that put independence support ahead prior to Sept 2014. Most of us voting for a Yes outcome did so more on hope rather than expectation.

Polling wise now several polls from different companies have independence support at a steady 47% give or take the 3% margin of error each side. No referendum has been announced yet and no official campaigning has begun either.

Starting at 47% with dedicated organisation of several Yes entities ( only one of which is the SNP ) and a possible Scottish Labour split on the subject in view of who's currently in place at Westminster. With credibility issues also looming over who is best placed to lead a second BetterTogether campaign.
Personally and anecdotally I have a faint suspicion that older Labour voters - certainly in the West of Scotland - will stay away from the polling booths in droves like they did for the Holyrood elections a few months ago. Unable to bring themselves to vote for either an independent Scotland, nor vote to endorse a Tory led UK government being in place for a further five years on top of withdrawing from the EU. This won't be reflected fully in polling metrics.

Euan McColm is right to be twitchy.