The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

elantan

I really wish though more work was beng done on organising post indy Scotland, banking sector, defence etc ... we need the answers for next time.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Announce their intentions towards a possible independent Scotland remaining in the EU. They'll either want Scotland to stay or they won't. How hard can it be to indicate/hint/warm welcome to Sturgeon in Brussels for talks which one.

She certainly seems pretty confident anyway, and she's known for being far more cautious than her predecessor.

Lol!
Any official pronouncement from Brussels re. Scotland`s place in the EU would be seen as tantamount to interference in the internal politics of a sovereign state and will not happen in the midst of the UK`s extraction from the EU I would suggest.
I can't believe you buy into the SNP`s bluster and bravado every time.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

My assessment is just as good as yours. I watch Scottish politics closely and was the first to point out here via the polls at the tail end of the last referendum campaign, that the SNP vote re Westminster intentions seemed to be looking like moving very sharply up. No one took any notice though.

I can only expand on my own experiences and observations at the present time, mixed with the facts in front of me and they are this :- Nicola Sturgeon has put into motion the calling of a second referendum. The EU has said neither Yay or Nay to Scotland remaining in the EU should it become an independent country. However, she seems remarkably confident to build a case for a second referendum which she, the SNP as a whole and the Green party who have just launched their own independence drive... ( why would the Greens do that now at this point in time ? ).. on the primary basis that Scotland should not be taken out of the EU when Scotland voted to remain.

Nothing is done and dusted yet. And if the UK stays in the single market things could well die down again. But what is clear is that there are ducks getting set in a row for another vote should Brexit not go to the Scottish Governments liking and completely regardless of current polling. All the stamping of your own feet and shouting negate none of the above no matter what anyone's personal biases are.

thirty years of planning for independence and the SNP can't even tell the people of scotland what currency they will use

3 months of brexit and great progress is being made.

30 years and nicola hasn't even build a case for Iscotland: one could hardly believe the incompetence

mrginge

Tromking wrote: »

Lol!
Any official pronouncement from Brussels re. Scotland`s place in the EU would be seen as tantamount to interference in the internal politics of a sovereign state and will not happen in the midst of the UK`s extraction from the EU I would suggest.
I can't believe you buy into the SNP`s bluster and bravado every time.

Can you imagine the fall out. Brexit talks are progressing, optimism is returning, businesses are starting to feel more confident...
The EU then undermine all that by announcing that Scotland can stay in the EU if they vote for independence.
It would be the single most stupid action ever.
May understands this.
The EU understands this.
Even sturgeon understands this.
STD & co don't understand this. They think Scottish independence is the single most important issue in the world and that everyone else will drop everything else to pander to them.

Sturgeon will not be given a definitive NO by anyone, she will simply be ignored or given vague wait-and-see statements. Enough for her to keep plodding along, playing the long game and counting on the support of STD. She just better hope that they don't screw up Scotland's economy even more in the meantime.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Tromking wrote: »

Lol!
Any official pronouncement from Brussels re. Scotland`s place in the EU would be seen as tantamount to interference in the internal politics of a sovereign state and will not happen in the midst of the UK`s extraction from the EU I would suggest.
I can't believe you buy into the SNP`s bluster and bravado every time.

:T
Quite so.

I'm constantly amazed by the amount of straws being clutched-at by iScotland supporters, both in media and in threads like this one.
The sheer desperation is ....... well, laughable is perhaps the most polite description; deluded being another which springs immediately to mind.

Sturgeon, by her continued insistent pursuance of independence AND of EU membership, is doing not only her own reputation but that of the whole SNP party far more harm than good.
Because as Scots, many of us realise that the whole issue is fraught with uncertainty and (as Clapton and others so correctly state in this very thread) no firm plans are forthcoming from the SNP.
Which is very telling.

At it time when - if independence really IS what the SNP want - the party should be producing their ideas and plans formulated over previous decades in readiness for a fight for independence there is instead bluster.
Jaunts to visit a few European dignitaries in attempts to garner support.
Rhetoric and empty half-promises.

This will (as has been said before in this thread) without doubt lead to decreasing support - not only for the SNP but for independence; indeed, IMHO it will set back any real chance of independence for Scotland by decades.

TrickyTree83

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

:T
Quite so.

I'm constantly amazed by the amount of straws being clutched-at by iScotland supporters, both in media and in threads like this one.
The sheer desperation is ....... well, laughable is perhaps the most polite description; deluded being another which springs immediately to mind.

Sturgeon, by her continued insistent pursuance of independence AND of EU membership, is doing not only her own reputation but that of the whole SNP party far more harm than good.
Because as Scots, many of us realise that the whole issue is fraught with uncertainty and (as Clapton and others so correctly state in this very thread) no firm plans are forthcoming from the SNP.
Which is very telling.

At it time when - if independence really IS what the SNP want - the party should be producing their ideas and plans formulated over previous decades in readiness for a fight for independence there is instead bluster.
Jaunts to visit a few European dignitaries in attempts to garner support.
Rhetoric and empty half-promises.

This will (as has been said before in this thread) without doubt lead to decreasing support - not only for the SNP but for independence; indeed, IMHO it will set back any real chance of independence for Scotland by decades.

Well it was an easier idea to push in 2014.

Both countries would still be in the EU (assuming Scotland was to join as you're all so pro EU), and as such effectively remain the same country except with Holyrood having complete power in Scotland.

The situation now is clearly very different. The questions rather than being easier, are much more difficult. The risks are far greater too. Unless these can be mitigated as I suggested previously and only then the independence ball starts rolling again. Starting it right now with all of these new issues unanswered, or even at moment being unanswerable, is folly.

Assuming it even gets to the stage of an indy2 ref. If they lose that 2nd referendum the cause will probably dissolve into obscurity. Like UKIP probably will once Labour stops its communist revolution and comes to its senses.

.string.

:j

mrginge wrote: »

Can you imagine the fall out. Brexit talks are progressing, optimism is returning, businesses are starting to feel more confident...
The EU then undermine all that by announcing that Scotland can stay in the EU if they vote for independence.
It would be the single most stupid action ever.
May understands this.
The EU understands this.
Even sturgeon understands this.
STD & co don't understand this. They think Scottish independence is the single most important issue in the world and that everyone else will drop everything else to pander to them.

Sturgeon will not be given a definitive NO by anyone, she will simply be ignored or given vague wait-and-see statements. Enough for her to keep plodding along, playing the long game and counting on the support of STD. She just better hope that they don't screw up Scotland's economy even more in the meantime.

Yes I agree it is it unlikely, inconcievable actually, that the EU would respond to part of a Member State asking hypothetical questions about what would happen if it was, at some uncertain future time and in an uncertain economic state, independent.

Regarding there being a plan or not for Brexit: May gave a perfectly good pragmatic reason why she is not giving detail at this stage, or indeed will ever give detail until the nitty gritty of the negotiations themselves.

Actually I suspect the main issues are already identified and what will happen during the rest of the year will be going over the big picture, the what-ifs and the fall-back scenarios. Personally, I would aim for mid November for having things in place, leaving the remainder of the year for tweaking, and planning the negotiation schedule.

Presently my guess for the timing of Article 50 is January 1st, one day after the end of the EU financial year for the simple reason that it will avoid a whole mess of additional negotiations. It was always thus.

In the meantime, whatever Shakey may imagine, Surgeon will be in a no win situation regarding her obsession with another referendum, either call for one in the face of a negotiation stance (by then declared) with Scotland-friendly content and being denied a legal basis for it, or not calling for a Referendum and, in effect, admitting the Brexit position might not be so bad after all. My guess is that she will ask for a Referendum and hope for it to be denied so she can whinge about that.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

thirty years of planning for independence and the SNP can't even tell the people of scotland what currency they will use

It was meant to be a Scottish Pound, linked to GBP, or as part of a currency union with the UK. It was in the white paper published nearly 3 years ago.

3 months of brexit and great progress is being made.

Are we watching the same brexit? I haven't seen any progress being made, Davis still doesn't know anything, and most statements he has made have been corrected by May, who is keen to keep parroting "Brexit it Brexit".

We know approximately nothing more than we did before Brexit, except that all of the claims were false, and there's definitely not going to be a points based immigration system.
We've also moved to the back of the queue with all of our big trading partners, so if anything we've gone backwards.

So what progress have we made? What is actually happening?

Here's a basic summary of the SNP's plan to Independence, all the way down to retaining the rights to broadcast Eastenders:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland%27s_Future#Overview

Does the Brexit camp have anything close to being comparable?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

It was meant to be a Scottish Pound, linked to GBP, or as part of a currency union with the UK. It was in the white paper published nearly 3 years ago.


Does the Brexit camp have anything close to being comparable?

Ah, that old chestnut again.

I will quote verbatim a recent post of mine:
(Please note that the original was posted BEFORE the release of the iPhone7. )

And quite right too.
I wouldn't want the opposition to know what I was planning - so that they can prepare countermeasures? Nah.
When they feel ready to face each other is fine.
Despite those who would rather know every detail beforehand.
It's just NOT good business.


Almost every company knows this and practices that very approach.
Apple iPhone7 anyone?
Do you seriously think every Apple shareholder knows full details of the iPhone7?

.string.

Incidentally, the use of the term "Brexit Camp" is way out of date now. I voted Remain, but while I wish we had done so, I am much more interested now in making post-Brexit UK work well and to our (repeat OUR) asvantage and limiting, even avoiding, some of the downsides. So it's non just ex-Brexiteers trying to do that*.

It's a matter of tespecting the result of the referendum, focussing on the job to be done and making things work.

* correction --- "doing that"