The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There will always be Tories. However, it's clear now there will be an independence referendum coming up before the next Holyrood GE. ?

have the polls passed the magic 60%?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There will always be Tories. However, it's clear now there will be an independence referendum coming up before the next Holyrood GE. So I guess it will remain to be seen whether they're Scottish Tories in a Westminster sense, or purely in a Holyrood role.

Time for a revival in Scotland isn't something they have on their side at the moment. Unionism only lasts as long as the threat to the union does. What will Ruth do afterwards, whatever the result ?

Regardless of my view on whether or not Scotland should be independent for the betterment of its citizens, I do not think the time is right for another independence push.

It's conceivable that by the end of this year the Brexit clock will start ticking. If that does take place and all 27 remaining members do not agree to extend it, that clock will stop by 2019. That doesn't appear to me to be enough time to reduce the deficit Scotland has without swinging cuts, nor time to re-jig the economy to withstand a situation where tariffs exist between rUK and the EU with Scotland in it.

So Scotland could face independence in 2019 or sooner with massive economic problems, much greater than those that would be caused by Brexit alone for Scotland, even when trading on WTO terms.

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

have the polls passed the magic 60%?

Ask Curtice what he thinks ?

John Curtice, the professor of politics whose team correctly predicted the 2015 general election result, now thinks there is a 50-50 chance that Scotland will leave the UK within the next two years..

The Brexit rebellion focused its anger on faraway Brussels and had a right-wing tinge. The Scottish revolt focused on faraway London and was left-wing in flavour. But they were both uprisings against the status quo. That being so and the Scottish political system now feeling so different, it’s hard to see Scotland simply settling down and accepting its place in a Conservative-dominated, Brexited Britain.

There is a Tory revival in Scotland — and Ruth Davidson, the party’s leader there, has become a kind of folk hero (to some folk) — but it isn’t big enough to knock the SNP off course. And however well Corbyn is doing at Labour meetings in England, Labour in Scotland still seems out for the count.
Scotland is thinking and acting differently. Curtice thinks we no longer have “British politics”. A single state with more than one political culture is very unstable. Something’s going to change. But in the British political world that’s all being virtually ignored...

Where we are now is unsustainable. Scotland vanished from the London headlines this summer. It will be back.

Andrew Marr, Sunday Times today. Behind paywall.

mrginge

There is precisely zero chance that Scotland will leave the uk within two years.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Regardless of my view on whether or not Scotland should be independent for the betterment of its citizens, I do not think the time is right for another independence push.

I disagree. And at the moment it's only a push, there's been no referendum announced just a likelyhood if Scotland has to leave the EU.

It's conceivable that by the end of this year the Brexit clock will start ticking. If that does take place and all 27 remaining members do not agree to extend it, that clock will stop by 2019. That doesn't appear to me to be enough time to reduce the deficit Scotland has without swinging cuts, nor time to re-jig the economy to withstand a situation where tariffs exist between rUK and the EU with Scotland in it.

Mabye there won't be tarriffs if May softens her Brexit stance. She's had a couple of knock backs today from Obama and Japan. Also Davies was all over the Irish newspapers the other day talking about no borders between NI and Ireland and nothing 'that would make trade difficult'. Scotland will have some of whatever Davies is offering to the Irish.

So Scotland could face independence in 2019 or sooner with massive economic problems, much greater than those that would be caused by Brexit alone for Scotland, even when trading on WTO terms.

We're yet to see what form Brexit takes. And yet again, there's a political argument that runs in tandem with the economics of it. Sturgeon can stay patient on the sidelines for now. The thought of very right wing Conservative governments in an insolated UK with the prospect of workers rights being eroded and the worsening state of a slowly privatised English NHS, among other things, should focus a few minds. In fact, EU to the side, I'd imagine the above will resonate more with don't knows than the EU will as the Scottish commentariat has already surmised.

My own view is that the opinion polls underestimate the extent to which Scots of all classes have begun to take independence seriously as a practical project. The euthanasia of the status quo has changed the game. Brexit has all the makings of an historical watershed. A UK dominated by rightwing anti-Europeans, obsessed with immigration and deluded by echoes of empire, has undermined lingering moral attachments to the Union. The process of disengagement from Europe will be a long and trying one in which Scotland's interests will be repeatedly set aside. There is no downside here for the independence movement and no conceivable political threat from Labour or the Tories. So this is probably not be the time for an early referendum.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14721998.Iain_Macwhirter__The_timing_of_the_referendum_is_the_biggest_decision_Nicola_Sturgeon_will_ever_make/

TrickyTree83

mrginge wrote: »

There is precisely zero chance that Scotland will leave the uk within two years.

It's tight, build up to a referendum, have one, negotiate exit, actually perform the exit all within 2 years 4 months. And whilst the UK is negotiating brexit, I doubt May would be willing to grant Nicola the referendum anyway. But I do agree there's nothing stopping a non-binding referendum, but with that there's no negotiations, and may never be.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

There is precisely zero chance that Scotland will leave the uk within two years.

I'm sure you know better than Professor of Politics and eminent Psephologist/correctly predicted the result of the last GE from exit polls John Curtice does.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's tight, build up to a referendum, have one, negotiate exit, actually perform the exit all within 2 years 4 months. And whilst the UK is negotiating brexit, I doubt May would be willing to grant Nicola the referendum anyway. But I do agree there's nothing stopping a non-binding referendum, but with that there's no negotiations, and may never be.

It's telling that there's no one now who really thinks May will be able to stop one. Nor ignore the results either. I remember all this being said when the SNP won in 2011. I debated it here in fact, back when I was a devo maxer. :cool:

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm sure you know better than Professor of Politics and eminent Psephologist/correctly predicted the result of the last GE from exit polls John Curtice does.

In this case yes I do.

Anyone can say '50:50' chance. It's a meaningless statement.

There is no chance because a referendum will only serious come back on the table once Brexit terms are finalised.

...or are you expecting the high priestess to call a referendum on a subject where there is no clarity on what either option looks like?
Forgive me but I don't believe the Scottish people are so stupid as to vote to exit a union until they know what that union is going to look like and what their alternative independent model looks like.

Rinoa

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm sure you know better than Professor of Politics and eminent Psephologist/correctly predicted the result of the last GE from exit polls John Curtice does.

Not sure where you're getting your quotes from but if you think he's worth listening to, this is what he said 2 days ago:

Doubtless the first minister will be looking anxiously to see if any further polls in the coming weeks confirm YouGov's picture.
But at present it looks as though she cannot presume that she will be in a position to hold a successful second independence referendum any time soon.
Consequently, she needs the "summer offensive" being launched today to succeed in persuading more voters of the merits of independence.
To do that, the offensive will need to do more than reiterate the arguments in favour of Scotland staying in the EU.
YouGov's poll in July found that only 18% of those who voted No in the September 2014 referendum said they would rather live in a Scotland that was in the EU but not part of the UK than in a Scotland that was part of the UK but was outside the EU.
Economic case

This suggests that most No voters have a stronger commitment to the Union with the rest of the UK than to the European Union headquartered in Brussels.
The SNP need to focus instead on persuading more voters that the case for independence makes economic sense.
In March this year - when the SNP envisaged Scotland would have become independent if it had voted Yes two years ago - as many as 49% said that they thought Scotland would now be worse off financially if it had voted for independence. Just 22% thought it would be better off.
Crucially, amongst those who voted No in September 2014 only 5% felt the country would now be better off, while as many as 81% reckoned it would be worse off.
The SNP's failure so far to persuade most voters of the economic case for independence is underlined by today's YouGov poll, which finds that as many as 49% believe that Scotland benefits economically from being part of the UK, while just 23% believes being part of the UK is harmful.
Whatever voters feel about the rights and wrongs of the vote on Brexit, persuading a majority of them to vote for independence is always likely to be an uphill task for so long as so many of them are doubtful that the proposition makes economic sense.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37254078