The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Thrugelmir

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

20 years ago similar would have been said about the demise of Labour in Scotland.

Number of MP's doesn't reflect the underlying vote though. How many people want Independence but not SNP policies? Labours vote didn't collapse between the 2005 and 2015 elections. Biggest hit was the Lib Dems.

Leanne1812

AnotherJoe wrote: »

It's wrong for someone who is in favour of "X" going around supposedly gathering l opinions on "X" as if they were a neutral arbiter of what people's opinions are and then pretending that the result of the survey is wholly unbiased, and not simply what they set out to obtain in the first place.

A neutral survey conducted by an unbiased organisation whose expertese is to collect such data, would be a different thing.. But that's not what's seemingly the plan.

I'd argue regardless of who commissioned the survey it's not going to sway people's opinions. Have you seen it? Are you trying to say the questions are loaded?

Leanne1812

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

20 years ago similar would have been said about the demise of Labour in Scotland.

On that point I will concede!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

zagubov wrote: »

That's not totally insane, but a bit of a long shot. PR can get results which sometimes end with long-term shifting coalitions..

Oh I'll agree it's a long shot and that PR can require coalitions.

The SNP relied upon supply and confidence Tory support when they had a minority government for example...

But it's not inconceivable to see the Tories regaining larger parts of the north, south and east of Scotland - recent voting trends and swing towards them suggests this is a realistic possibility.

Leaving fife, the middle/west of the Central Belt and Dundee as the core support for 'the left' - be that Labour or the socialist part of the SNP.

Politics in Scotland is incredibly interesting just now.

Labour lost a lot of their core socialist vote to the SNP in Glasgow/Dundee/Fife during the indyref as they were mis-sold on the concept of an indy Scotland being able to end austerity.

But the Tories lost a lot of their core support a generation earlier to the 'Tartan Tory' wing of the SNP in the rural areas, the North and East.

That's not a stable long term arrangement though - the SNP cannot continue to talk left and act right forever without the masses seeing through it eventually - so they'll lose support to the left or to the right at some point.

The SNP cannot permanently be a natural home to both disaffected working class Socialist or Labour voters in Glasgow, Dundee, Fife, Lanarkshire, and disaffected middle class Centrist or Tory voters in Edinburgh, Lothians, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire, Highlands, Borders.

They've pulled it off so far by being jack of all trades and master of none - never offending the left or right - by basically never straying from a centrist, New Labour style, policy position - while blaming everything anyone doesn't like on Westminster.

But something has to give.

The SNP have attracted the hard left in Glasgow/Dundee under false pretences (ie that indy = no more austerity) so that's not sustainable long term.

But if Labour target them to win back by being an actual left wing party they'll not get the centrist voters back they need to actually win power. Hence their continued downward trend in Scotland through both Milliband and Corbyn.

Milliband/Corbyn/Dugdale are too far left for the centrist ex-Labour city voters - so they've voted SNP in Aberdeen/Edinburgh/Dumbartonshire, etc.

But Sturgeon is too far left for the right of centre Tartan Tory SNP supporters in rural areas though - so a lot of that support is swinging back to the actual Tories.

But if you want an example of how a Tory resurgence could happen against what seems on the surface to be improbable odds - you don't need to look much further than Dumbartonshire East.

This is natural Tory territory - middle class wealthy Glasgow suburbs like Bearsden - that used to be Lib Dem with Jo Swinson as MP - and moved SNP as centrist Labour voters deserted en-masse in 2015.

The Tories were in 4th place last time - but Ruth Davidson is popular with these types of voters and if the SNP drift left, those same centrist voters that deserted Labour for the SNP could easily enough move to the Tories - along with a centrist ex-Lib Dem contingent.

At some point the political battleground in Scotland will shift back to the traditional left/right axis.

And the centrist voters will regain supremacy when it does.

The party they end up supporting will be the party in power - and I wouldn't bet against that being the Tories inside of 20 years.

zagubov

That's an a example of a very politically volatile swing vote area. I never expected them to go SNP, but TBH I didn't see the SNP winning more than about a dozen seats in the last election so my grasp of Scottish voting intentions leaves a lot to be desired.

If I wasn't so out of touch with Scottish politics which is hardly covered down here at all, I'd reckon if the Tories weren't identified so strongly with Westminster, I very much think they could strike a chord with a lot of the Scottish electorate. I know lots of Tory voters in Scotland; I used to know lots of Labour voters as well but they've massively switched to the SNP.

ruggedtoast

zagubov wrote: »

That's an a example of a very politically volatile swing vote area. I never expected them to go SNP, but TBH I didn't see the SNP winning more than about a dozen seats in the last election so my grasp of Scottish voting intentions leaves a lot to be desired.

If I wasn't so out of touch with Scottish politics which is hardly covered down here at all, I'd reckon if the Tories weren't identified so strongly with Westminster, I very much think they could strike a chord with a lot of the Scottish electorate. I know lots of Tory voters in Scotland; I used to know lots of Labour voters as well but they've massively switched to the SNP.

The Tories are extremely tight so I would have thought they would appeal to Scottish voters.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

zagubov wrote: »

That's an a example of a very politically volatile swing vote area. I never expected them to go SNP,.

Just goes to show how successful the SNP have been at "acting right" while talking left - that sort of area is most certainly not working class, socialist, Labour heartlands - it's middle class and wealthy.

And IMO it's the dozens of areas like that which are both vital to their continued stay in power and also most at risk for the SNP - areas which are less about tribal political loyalty and full of swing voters - middle class and well educated.

If Labour continues to veer left they'll never get them back - But the Tories under Ruth have some prospect of doing so.

zagubov wrote: »

I used to know lots of Labour voters as well but they've massively switched to the SNP.

They have indeed.

But the problem Labour have in Scotland is twofold.

Labour votes in Scotland were always about more than the core working class socialists.

In order to win Labour also had to keep hold of the moderate centrists.

The Scottish Labour party attracted the core socialists through grass roots campaigning - and the Westminster labour party attracted the moderate centrists - but when Westminster Labour swung left these swing voters defected en-masse.

Some to the Tories and some to the SNP.

And without them Labour was doomed.

The SNP have outflanked Labour both to the left and to the right - they've taken some of the core working class vote - but also the centrist swing voters who are essential to actually winning elections - and even the 'Tartan Tory' crowd from the rural areas.

It's a remarkable trick to have pulled off but they've done it and full credit to them for doing so. But ultimately it is a trick... Such alliances of the left and right are never sustainable for the long term.

You only need to look as far as the Lib Dems to see what lies in store for the SNP eventually if they try to keep up the current facade.

Political parties in Britain are only ever credible and sustainable for the long term if they are truly of the centre left or centre right.

Anything other than that becomes a protest movement rather than a credible political party.

If you rely on bringing disparate groups together under a flag of convenience - as the SNP do today - and the Lib Dems have done since they started - then failure is the only possible long term outcome.

If you are of the centre left or centre right but swing too far left or right - then failure is also the only possible outcome - as we saw for the Tories during the Blair years and for Labour under Milliband and Corbyn.

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

The Tories are extremely tight so I would have thought they would appeal to Scottish voters.

another racist comment from toxic toastie who apparently supports a IRA murders for a gentler, kinder type of politics.

zagubov

I sometimes wonder when reading this forum whether some posters have ever encountered anybody ever at all who didn't strike them as a racist

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just goes to show how successful the SNP have been at "acting right" while talking left - that sort of area is most certainly not working class, socialist, Labour heartlands - it's middle class and wealthy.

And IMO it's the dozens of areas like that which are both vital to their continued stay in power and also most at risk for the SNP - areas which are less about tribal political loyalty and full of swing voters - middle class and well educated.

If Labour continues to veer left they'll never get them back - But the Tories under Ruth have some prospect of doing so.



They have indeed.

But the problem Labour have in Scotland is twofold.

Labour votes in Scotland were always about more than the core working class socialists.

In order to win Labour also had to keep hold of the moderate centrists.

The Scottish Labour party attracted the core socialists through grass roots campaigning - and the Westminster labour party attracted the moderate centrists - but when Westminster Labour swung left these swing voters defected en-masse.

Some to the Tories and some to the SNP.

And without them Labour was doomed.

The SNP have outflanked Labour both to the left and to the right - they've taken some of the core working class vote - but also the centrist swing voters who are essential to actually winning elections - and even the 'Tartan Tory' crowd from the rural areas.

It's a remarkable trick to have pulled off but they've done it and full credit to them for doing so. But ultimately it is a trick... Such alliances of the left and right are never sustainable for the long term.

You only need to look as far as the Lib Dems to see what lies in store for the SNP eventually if they try to keep up the current facade.

Political parties in Britain are only ever credible and sustainable for the long term if they are truly of the centre left or centre right.

Anything other than that becomes a protest movement rather than a credible political party.

If you rely on bringing disparate groups together under a flag of convenience - as the SNP do today - and the Lib Dems have done since they started - then failure is the only possible long term outcome.

If you are of the centre left or centre right but swing too far left or right - then failure is also the only possible outcome - as we saw for the Tories during the Blair years and for Labour under Milliband and Corbyn.

I disagree. All this SNP talking left and acting right stuff is nonsense. People vote on the policies put before them and by and large vote for the party that chimes best with their own views. It's as simple as that.

Scottish Labour have a severe case of the tribalisms and their UK party is a mess at the moment. Both Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour have a serious demographic problem in Scotland. Their voters are mainly in the 55+ or older bracket. At the present time, both of these older demographic groups are combining in any election, be it a General Election or a Council election... in order to vote for the party more likely to keep the SNP out. For obvious reasons, this won't last.

Demographically, the SNP is a young party, as are the Greens incidentally... and that there is both Labour and the Conservative's biggest problem in a nutshell. They aren't attracting the younger demographic in large numbers like the SNP and the Greens are. Both are aging parties appealing to older generations particularly with the independence question.

Another major problem they have is Ruth Davidson is a one (wo)man band without any perceivable policies beyond opposing the SNP and independence. Imo it's the media that largely keeps Ruth Davidson afloat since it suits their interests in the anti-indy/SNP narratives they have at the moment. Take those away and the Scottish media would soon be collectively turning turrets on Ms Davidson.

She wouldn't last 6 months with even a quarter the amount of scrutiny Sturgeon and her MSP's get I'm afraid. Not least because the twitter feeds of some of her colleagues are a joy to behold in terms of things not even the lowliest of SNP councillors would ever get away with in a million years. A quick trawl through them would give the Daily Record and the Herald headlines for months. But they aren't inclined to at the moment. That'll all change at some point.

In short. Ruth Davidson has made the Tories slightly more palatable as the Ruth Davidson party. The media are loving it at the moment because it suits, but I wouldn't rely on that lasting. It's all built on sand and sadly, an aging demographic clinging onto whatever they feel is safe ( the UK ). Younger voters coming through may have different ideas. Nothing to do with left and right or 'socialism'.

You're right that the SNP won't last forever either, but that will come down to a split at some point.