The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

Conrad wrote: »

Nicola knows the high water mark for SNP popularity has passed, and the Tories are quietly gaining ground. She's running out of time and knows this is her last chance to call the referendum. She will lose, even her voice on BBC right now seems bereft of its usual confidence.

No.

Holyrood prediction: SNP 71(+8), LAB 18(-6), LIB 4(-1), CON 26(-5), UKIP 0(=), GREEN 10(+4)

SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%

Not quite.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Why would it surprise you?
You see, what Shakethedisease; elantan and others who want independence so much are forgetting is ................ the recent UK referendum.

Canny Scots realise that the lack of hard fact * doesn't make a decision easy.
Let's be honest, none of us would mind being just a little worse-off temporarily but by a huge amount?
Scots also realise that without supporting fact, much of what is said is pure blether - and should be taken only with a very large pinch of salt.
They also by now realise only too well that this seems to apply to both sides of an [STRIKE]argument[/STRIKE] debate.

SO - for any side to win the hearts and minds of Scots we will need facts and figures.
If not these, certainly assurances much more concrete than the bull pooh currently still being pedalled.

Maybe Sturgeon should just appear on tv shouting about 'taking back control' every day, and plaster every single billboard in Scotland with a pic of May stealing money from a hardworking family with Boris laughing in the background ?

* Hard Fact:
Actual, provable facts and figures.
NOT promises, estimations/guesses or thoughts and ideas.
One such fact (sadly for Scotland) being the provable deficit figure of £14.8 billion.

Isn't GERS self admittedly full of estimates and guesses ?

ALSO
Most realise that even if Scots were given the opportunity AND were to vote for independence, there is surely no realistic way that this could be achieved even by the time of the UK's exit from the EU, much less before it.
Which means any great "happening" regarding membership of the EU; EFTA or any other such could realistically not happen until afterwards.

How do you know ? Do you know something everyone else doesn't ? Or are you just estimating and guessing ? Realistically, you know about as much as anyone else does. Nada in fact, as this situation is completely unprecedented. There's already been talk of putting Scotland in some sort of legal 'holding pen' if there's a vote for independence until both rUK's withdrawal, and Scotland's withdrawal from the UK are finalised. Then possibly for Scotland to take rUK's place ( with caveats and adjustments ). So who knows what's going to happen. But the one thing for sure right now is that neither you or I know anything definitively.

Scotland disentagling itself from the UK doesn't involve as much as it looks thanks to already separate law, education, policing, NHS and many other systems including those devolved. A new Scottish centric tax office was set up last year. Politics is in a similar situation with only 3 MP's leaving Westminster who actively do not want to.

It's debt/asset negotiations and getting down to the nitty gritty of revenues/defence/Trident etc which will be the main headaches. But nothing I should imagine to the scale of Brexit and all the thousands of EU laws and legislation that will have to be rewritten or removed.

TrickyTree83

CLAPTON wrote: »

lets assume that the 64% of trade is with the rUK is a matter of fact.
how much of this trade will continue after iscotland is a matter of
opinion and not of fact
maybe it will increase?

The 64% is a matter of fact. It's on the Scottish government website.

Quite right that not all 64% will disappear, there's a risk to this trade with rUK out of the single market and iScotland in it. If the deal between the UK and the EU goes really bad then there's a possibility the vast majority of the 64% would cease.

It certainly would not increase in such a situation as products from Scotland would become more expensive in rUK due to the tariffs you loathe.

C'mon, get with it Clapton!

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Fcking hell what is wrong with Scottish Labour?

Neil Findlay feeding Corbyn lines. Dugdale isn't very good and has just hired a notorious Daily Mail political editor as their new communications man.

Me a couple of pages back :-

If Corbyn were a Scottish party leader, likely Labour would be biting at the heels of the SNP at the moment. However when he comes up here he tends to read off scripts spouting the same nonsense and smears towards the SNP that appear in Labour leaning Scottish newspapers each day. Most of which has already been debunked or shown to have very significant ommissions or mistakes by social media.

This makes him look very inept to the same, for want of a better word 'cybernats', as it would if Nicola Sturgeon was reading scripts from the Express and the Telegraph in an attempt to win over Corbyn supporters. Sad, because folks like me would've loved the idea of Labour and the SNP working together as much as was possible in similar policy areas for as long as Scotland remains part of Westminster.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Now that does surprise me, that the polls are on a downward trend.

Mind you once they start getting out there in these meetings and rallies to try to drum up support those polls will probably change.

I doubt at these meetings they'll be telling the people there about the economic challenges ahead if they were to vote for independence.

The polls ( plural ) aren't on a downward trend. That's the second YouGov poll in a few weeks. Which is basically the same as the last YouGov poll. You need an array of pollsters to make sense of any trend appearing. And let's face it, it didn't go to well last time round for them.

By far the most interesting snippets away from the headline figs was this one. And the most encouraging.

It also found that while 12% of previous no voters were now in favour of independence, 13% of previous yes voters had switched to supporting the union.

With 10% undecided, and 12 % No to Yes. It seems that it's a percentage of previous Yes voters who need to be open minded enough to considering a Yes vote.. to turn out and vote Yes once again. Is not just oil prices which are volatile in Scotland it seems.;) The poll didn't include 16/17 year olds either.

However, fantastic stuff today. Looks like the SNP and the Greens are going to go for it if necessary. Now to November is simply about whittling out the solid Yes and No's, and concentrating on the Don't Knows in any future referendum. Couldn't agree more with James Kelly ( pro indy poll commentator ).

In truth, Sturgeon is highly likely to enter the second independence referendum without even knowing for sure whether she has a lead to defend, or a deficit to overturn. That won’t deter her, because she’s learned that referendums are won and lost in the heat of battle, not on graphs during a phoney war.
Read more at http://talkradio.co.uk/opinion/nicola-sturgeon-gets-her-day-job-keeping-scotland-eu-1609023626#uljmdAXQaXJfsjfh.99

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The polls ( plural ) aren't on a downward trend. That's the second YouGov poll in a few weeks. Which is basically the same as the last YouGov poll. You need an array of pollsters to make sense of any trend appearing. And let's face it, it didn't go to well last time round for them.

By far the most interesting snippets away from the headline figs was this one. And the most encouraging.

With 10% undecided, and 12 % No to Yes. It seems that it's a percentage of previous Yes voters who need to be open minded enough to considering a Yes vote.. to turn out and vote Yes once again. Is not just oil prices which are volatile in Scotland it seems.;) The poll didn't include 16/17 year olds either.

However, fantastic stuff today. Looks like the SNP and the Greens are going to go for it if necessary. Now to November is simply about whittling out the solid Yes and No's, and concentrating on the Don't Knows in any future referendum. Couldn't agree more with James Kelly ( pro indy poll commentator ).

I think you'd enjoy more success by waiting.

See what the outcome of the UK deal is first, see where you'd stand in terms of trade. See where you'd stand in terms of movement of people. And a whole load besides.

During that time try to reduce the percentage of trade with rUK by increasing trade with the EU and the rest of the world so any potential problems can be dealt with more easily. Oh and reduce the deficit in GERS too so it's easier to calculate away.

Starting the ball rolling now feels like going off half-cocked and a mistake if you lose two in a row, the rUK will be mightily cheesed off if the circus continues after a no vote in indy2. You may even consolidate all opposition against the SNP into one party and consign them to opposition in the Scottish parliament for a generation.

AnotherJoe

How about this for cognitive dissonance on a stick with knobs on.

"Do we control our own destiny as a country or will we always be at the mercy of decisions taken elsewhere?" Nicola Sturgeon, leader of SNP, asked her country. Ms. Sturgeon has called it "democratically unacceptable" for Scotland to have to leave the EU after, as a nation, voting to remain

Awesome. Remain in the EU and yet somehow not be "at the mercy of decisions made elsewhere". Err, that would be Strasbourg and Brussels, Nicola.

You couldn't make it up. But it seems she has.

TrickyTree83

AnotherJoe wrote: »

How about this for cognitive dissonance on a stick with knobs on.

"Do we control our own destiny as a country or will we always be at the mercy of decisions taken elsewhere?" Nicola Sturgeon, leader of SNP, asked her country. Ms. Sturgeon has called it "democratically unacceptable" for Scotland to have to leave the EU after, as a nation, voting to remain

Awesome. Remain in the EU and yet somehow not be "at the mercy of decisions made elsewhere". Err, that would be Strasbourg and Brussels, Nicola.

You couldn't make it up. But it seems she has.

It's not great when she's contradicting herself in the same paragraph.

The whole brexit situation makes indy2 far too complex, I feel it's too soon, Scotland isn't ready, and this will !!!! up your chances for a generation.

Thoughts from indy supporters?

Leanne1812

What is too soon Tricky? It's not going to happen in the next few months that's for sure. I don't even think it will be before a couple of years at least. Possibly before the next GE. Lots of work to be done before then.

Nicola has set the 1st stage in motion today. A survey to garner opinion for the next 3 months. A journo today did the sums that if all 120,000 members get 5 people a month over the next 3 months to complete the survey there's 1.8 million already. Anyone can do the survey online and are actively being encouraged to do so no matter their view. What I'm reading is " we all have a voice & an opinion so use it". If that survey shows support declining or stagnating ( doubtful) then i've no idea what will happen next to be honest.

Meanwhile as we await to see what form brexit will take everything is still uncertain.

Let's be clear here. There will be no indyref2 unless polls consistently show support has risen enough for a Yes win next time. Chill people, it's going to take time & serious debate about the big issues which let the Yes campaign down last time.

Leanne1812

AnotherJoe wrote: »

How about this for cognitive dissonance on a stick with knobs on.

"Do we control our own destiny as a country or will we always be at the mercy of decisions taken elsewhere?" Nicola Sturgeon, leader of SNP, asked her country. Ms. Sturgeon has called it "democratically unacceptable" for Scotland to have to leave the EU after, as a nation, voting to remain

Awesome. Remain in the EU and yet somehow not be "at the mercy of decisions made elsewhere". Err, that would be Strasbourg and Brussels, Nicola.

You couldn't make it up. But it seems she has.

Ok, I'll bite.

Tell me, what are the big decisions that the EU make about Scotland's finances? Will the EU control Scotland's purse strings? Are you saying the EU will have more control over Scotland than Westminster currently does? Really?......

I think we can all find fault and know it is not a perfect organisation but you either feel you & your nation benefit from what it offers or you don't. Remainers obviously feel the former.