The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

CLAPTON wrote: »

there is approximately zero chance that vast majority of the 64% will cease :
why would they cease?
if iscotland has its own currency then scottish products will likely be cheaper
what tariffs are you talking about : rUK won't be imposing high tariffs:

Scotland's economy is very similar to the rUK in that services dominate and in particular financial and legal services.

In an iScotland scenario where the UK has a punitive deal from the EU or no deal at all Scotland becomes a competitor. So you seriously expect the UK to not put tariffs on these services from EU states if they're putting tariffs on our service sector?

As of 2014:

AnotherJoe

Leanne1812 wrote: »

What is too soon Tricky? It's not going to happen in the next few months that's for sure. I don't even think it will be before a couple of years at least. Possibly before the next GE. Lots of work to be done before then.

Nicola has set the 1st stage in motion today. A survey to garner opinion for the next 3 months. A journo today did the sums that if all 120,000 members get 5 people a month over the next 3 months to complete the survey there's 1.8 million already. Anyone can do the survey online and are actively being encouraged to do so no matter their view. What I'm reading is " we all have a voice & an opinion so use it". If that survey shows support declining or stagnating ( doubtful) then i've no idea what will happen next to be honest.
.

So as I understand it, the SNP, massively in favour of a second indyref, are going to conduct a study via its supporters going out and asking what people want, to see if they want one? Hmm, I wonder how that will come out?

AnotherJoe

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

My own personal opinion is that article 50 will come at the end of this year, then we'll have 2 years to sort everything out, no longer. The EU has itchy feet waiting since June for us to invoke, I doubt they'll extend the 2 year period.

Its very likely they will extend it well beyond that for the thousands of agreements that are in place, especially in areas where an abrupt exit would cause the EU as much damage as the UK. There's already talk of 7 year 'graceful withdrawal' period. So the UK might be "out" theoretically on say Jan 1 2019, but expect existing agreements to gradually wind down over the next 5-10 years. EU politicians will already be seeing the effect of diminished manufacturing exports to the UK reducing jobs for [STRIKE]voters[/STRIKE] workers in such area as car manufacturing for example.

zagubov

If the UK gets into the EEA via EFTA, there's much less demand for an indyref. Scotland should just grab as much or as little Home Rule as it wants and that's indy on the back burner.

If it doesn't, Scotland might as well go indy, and if there's any delay with entering the EU, enter the EEA via EFTA quickly, and sit out the transition to EU membership in comfort.

Skip Schengen, so it's just another member of the CTA like Eire, and have a careful think about whether the sterling area's as bad as the eurozone, which it'll be institutionally unable to join in the first place, and which hardly any of the northern european countries seem to be joining anyway.

Leanne1812

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And lets also not forget that the Tories now have more seats than the SNP did the term before they took power.

Seriously, do you think the tories will be in power in Scotland say in the next 20 years or so?

If you think yes then I have to say I think you're deluded.

Leanne1812

AnotherJoe wrote: »

So as I understand it, the SNP, massively in favour of a second indyref, are going to conduct a study via its supporters going out and asking what people want, to see if they want one? Hmm, I wonder how that will come out?

So, it's wrong to want to garner opinion even though there has been a huge material change in circumstance since the last Indy ref? Even if the majority of the nation would wish for indy2 depending on the brexit outcome it's wrong to ask? From a party who make no secret that an independent Scotland is their aim. It's still wrong? Yeah, right.....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Seriously, do you think the tories will be in power in Scotland say in the next 20 years or so?

If you think yes then I have to say I think you're deluded.

If someone had asked the same question about the SNP in 2005 they'd likely have had the same thoughts about delusion with anyone who answered yes....

zagubov

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If someone had asked the same question about the SNP in 2005 they'd likely have had the same thoughts about delusion with anyone who answered yes....

That's not totally insane, but a bit of a long shot. PR can get results which sometimes end with long-term shifting coalitions. The fact we can't see who the Tories might partner with to get power doesn't mean i's out of the question. If the LibDems make a comeback, for example, and people overlook the last coalition, who knows?

Don't know where Labour'll be though.

AnotherJoe

Leanne1812 wrote: »

So, it's wrong to want to garner opinion even though there has been a huge material change in circumstance since the last Indy ref? Even if the majority of the nation would wish for indy2 depending on the brexit outcome it's wrong to ask? From a party who make no secret that an independent Scotland is their aim. It's still wrong? Yeah, right.....

It's wrong for someone who is in favour of "X" going around supposedly gathering l opinions on "X" as if they were a neutral arbiter of what people's opinions are and then pretending that the result of the survey is wholly unbiased, and not simply what they set out to obtain in the first place.

A neutral survey conducted by an unbiased organisation whose expertese is to collect such data, would be a different thing.. But that's not what's seemingly the plan.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Seriously, do you think the tories will be in power in Scotland say in the next 20 years or so?

If you think yes then I have to say I think you're deluded.

20 years ago similar would have been said about the demise of Labour in Scotland.