The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

I was under the impression from Salmond that it would need to happen before brexit happens and invoking article 50 takes place according to Theresa no later than the end of this year.

So the time frame is tight under those conditions. To gather opinion, form arguments, have the debate, have the vote, negotiate the exit and commit the exit agreement. And that's a lay persons interpretation of the steps involved. I would think it's more complex than that.

Otherwise Scotland will be out of the EU before you're independent, probably meaning a new application to join.

Leanne1812

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I was under the impression from Salmond that it would need to happen before brexit happens and invoking article 50 takes place according to Theresa no later than the end of this year.

So the time frame is tight under those conditions. To gather opinion, form arguments, have the debate, have the vote, negotiate the exit and commit the exit agreement. And that's a lay persons interpretation of the steps involved. I would think it's more complex than that.

Otherwise Scotland will be out of the EU before you're independent, probably meaning a new application to join.

Ahem....it's Sturgeon who is leader now. Get with the programme please

I understand it differently. I believe Scotland would like to secure her role in the EU ( whatever form that takes I don't know) So, if the uk opts for hard brexit with no single market and the EU shows willing not to exclude an existing member who is being taken out despite her clear desire not to leave blah, blah, blah then it will be a clear sign to start the ball rolling. Even if article 50 is invoked soon I don't imagine the uk will be out within 2 years. Do you? That gives at least 2 years to get campaigning for a rerun.

My opinion only here.

CLAPTON

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The 64% is a matter of fact. It's on the Scottish government website.

Quite right that not all 64% will disappear, there's a risk to this trade with rUK out of the single market and iScotland in it. If the deal between the UK and the EU goes really bad then there's a possibility the vast majority of the 64% would cease.

It certainly would not increase in such a situation as products from Scotland would become more expensive in rUK due to the tariffs you loathe.

C'mon, get with it Clapton!

there is approximately zero chance that vast majority of the 64% will cease :
why would they cease?
if iscotland has its own currency then scottish products will likely be cheaper
what tariffs are you talking about : rUK won't be imposing high tariffs:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Well this is awkward....

According to today's Yougov poll Ruth Davidson now has a higher net approval rating (+21) than Nicola Sturgeon (+20).

Of course they're both miles ahead of Labour's Kezia Dugdale at (-17)...

Direction of travel also looks worrying for Sturgeon.

Ruth was +2 just a few months ago while Sturgeon was +30....

Yet to translate into wider vote share intentions but definitely significant. A Tory revival in Scotland is not yet baked in but it's certainly moving that way.

ruggedtoast

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Neil Findlay feeding Corbyn lines. Dugdale isn't very good and has just hired a notorious Daily Mail political editor as their new communications man.

Me a couple of pages back :-

Dugdale has until January to sort herself out then there is only one solution.

Scottish Labour becomes Labour Labour and she is out of a job.

Shakethedisease

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Ahem....it's Sturgeon who is leader now. Get with the programme please

I understand it differently. I believe Scotland would like to secure her role in the EU ( whatever form that takes I don't know) So, if the uk opts for hard brexit with no single market and the EU shows willing not to exclude an existing member who is being taken out despite her clear desire not to leave blah, blah, blah then it will be a clear sign to start the ball rolling. Even if article 50 is invoked soon I don't imagine the uk will be out within 2 years. Do you? That gives at least 2 years to get campaigning for a rerun.

My opinion only here.

Mine too. Today was just the starting pistol, marathon ahead yet over the next two years, possibly longer if May triggers Article 50 early next year or beyond. Its a countdown from then.

However, there's little chance of the SNP/Greens sitting back and waiting until Scotland is actually well on the way out of the EU before actually doing anything as some appear to be suggesting on here.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well this is awkward....

According to today's Yougov poll Ruth Davidson now has a higher net approval rating (+21) than Nicola Sturgeon (+20).

Of course they're both miles ahead of Labour's Kezia Dugdale at (-17)...

Direction of travel also looks worrying for Sturgeon.

Ruth was +2 just a few months ago while Sturgeon was +30....

Yet to translate into wider vote share intentions but definitely significant. A Tory revival in Scotland is not yet baked in but it's certainly moving that way.

You and Conrad need to stop fooling yourselves Hamish. The question asked was 'do you think x is doing a good job ? '. I and many like me would've said yes for Davidson, because she is but would never vote for her. She's a lightweight in my view, extremely well versed in the art of PR from her journo days, likeable but is never really challenged seriously on any issue. More likely to be pictured grinning straddling a buffalo or waving an lollypop in another journo's face for photo ops than anything else.

No one knows what her plans would be for Scottish education, the NHS or anything much really. Do you ? Does anyone here know what Davidson is proposing for Education, taxation or the Scottish NHS ? I suspect she keeps those well hidden for a reason. She gains votes on opposing the SNP and that's it. But then, so do Labour these days and they mutually rely on each other.

Polls like everything else, you need to read further than red top headlines most of the time. They've lost ground on voting intentions (-5 seats since May ). She'll never be First Minister, but she does a good job at what she does.

As for Sturgeon, all I can say to that is. Remember Salmond and all those negative reports he got ? A lot of people really, really hated the sight of him. You weren't keen yourself. Yet he did a good job and regularly topped approval ratings every year he was in office anyway.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Remember Salmond and all those negative reports he got ? A lot of people really, really hated the sight of him. You weren't keen yourself. Yet he did a good job and regularly topped approval ratings every year he was in office anyway.

And lets also not forget that the Tories now have more seats than the SNP did the term before they took power.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And lets also not forget that the Tories now have more seats than the SNP did the term before they took power.

It's been a straight swap between the real old heartlands Labour -> SNP for the majority of Scottish seats in recent years. Most of whom swapped since 2010 because Miliband and Murphy were too right wing for them.
Where the Tories get votes are in traditional SNP/Conservative/Lib Dem marginals, rural farming areas with the odd city seat thrown in. Labour or newly SNP seats to Conservative in places like Glasgow and Dundee ? Not a hope and there's not enough of seats like the Swinney's in Perth to tip the balance anywhere near the Tories taking power in Scotland.

There's a huge difference between the numerous SNP v's Labour seats in the Central/Western belt, and the relatively small number of seats where it's SNP v's Conservatives/Lib Dems where Labour has never been in real contention anyway.

Did you mention what Davidson's NHS and Educational priorities are for Scotland should she ever take power ?

TrickyTree83

Leanne1812 wrote: »

Ahem....it's Sturgeon who is leader now. Get with the programme please

I understand it differently. I believe Scotland would like to secure her role in the EU ( whatever form that takes I don't know) So, if the uk opts for hard brexit with no single market and the EU shows willing not to exclude an existing member who is being taken out despite her clear desire not to leave blah, blah, blah then it will be a clear sign to start the ball rolling. Even if article 50 is invoked soon I don't imagine the uk will be out within 2 years. Do you? That gives at least 2 years to get campaigning for a rerun.

My opinion only here.

Salmond and Sturgeon still appear to work together, I suppose why wouldn't they. Anyway, if article 50 is invoked the UK will be out 2 years from that date - unless all 27 member states agree to extend that period.

If you're hoping for more than 2 years from article 50 you'll be relying on the opinions of 27 other countries.

It doesn't give you 2 years to get the ball rolling. It gives you 2 years to leave the UK proper.

My own personal opinion is that article 50 will come at the end of this year, then we'll have 2 years to sort everything out, no longer. The EU has itchy feet waiting since June for us to invoke, I doubt they'll extend the 2 year period.