The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Ask Curtice what he thinks ?Andrew Marr, Sunday Times today. Behind paywall.

the question was very simple

do the polls in scotland show 60% for iscotland?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

@ Shakethedisease: I would spend longer, going through each facile point you attempt to make but TBH life is just too short.

This one though really made me laugh out loud:

Shakethedisease: "She's had a couple of knock backs today from Obama and Japan"

Uh-huh.
This would be the very Obama that is soon to be replaced, would it?
The original statement that has already been "rubbished" on both sides of the Atlantic?
Did you honestly think that this summit would not lead to posturing (as these summits so often do) which, coincidentally, is what the Japanese are also doing?
It's called "saving face" although TBH, no-one is fooled.
Unless you are?



BTW, Obama was considered so important to the Chinese that he didn't even warrant use of the red carpet.
In fact, not even the use of a rolling staircase to leave his plane.
Theresa May did.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/04/barack-obama-deliberately-snubbed-by-chinese-in-chaotic-arrival-at-g20

TrickyTree83

It's not looking good.

It's not the right time, the ducks are most certainly not in a row.

Possibly failing twice within 2 years to gain independence is pretty damning. As it would be unlikely that any circumstances would 'materially change' after Brexit I would imagine that would be the last shot at independence for quite some time, probably happen again in my lifetime, but not by much.

Leanne1812

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's not looking good.

It's not the right time, the ducks are most certainly not in a row.

Possibly failing twice within 2 years to gain independence is pretty damning. As it would be unlikely that any circumstances would 'materially change' after Brexit I would imagine that would be the last shot at independence for quite some time, probably happen again in my lifetime, but not by much.

Oh Tricky, such wishful thinking from you.

The next referendum would need to be in less than 2 weeks for it to be within 2 years of the last. Now, that isn't going to happen is it?

I don't think any of us are really qualified to say what is or isn't looking good right now. We can only surmise. The results of the survey which are at least 3 months from now might give us a clearer picture of what direction Scotland is going.

I will say if it's brexit without single market access then another referendum is likely. The other poster is correct, we're not that stupid. We'd like to know what EU negotiations look like then we have something to work with. I should imagine once article 50 is invoked the important questions should be dealt with very promptly. I think the EU will be quite direct in what the UK should expect. Once again immigration will be a factor, will it be the stumbling point to SM? I think so.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

In this case yes I do.

Anyone can say '50:50' chance. It's a meaningless statement.

There is no chance because a referendum will only serious come back on the table once Brexit terms are finalised.

...or are you expecting the high priestess to call a referendum on a subject where there is no clarity on what either option looks like?
Forgive me but I don't believe the Scottish people are so stupid as to vote to exit a union until they know what that union is going to look like and what their alternative independent model looks like.

Sturgeon won't call a referendum before Article 50 is invoked, because May et al would then stall Article 50 saying they have to deal with Scotland first. And she can't call one after Scotland is well on the way out of the EU either, because then obviously, Scotland would then be out of the EU and that's not what Scotland's voters want.

So she'll do it sometime inbetween the two. But again, May is under some pressure at the moment. It only seems to be posters on here that are of the opinion that Japan and what Obama said today were of no consequence. Elsewhere it seems that leavers are getting a little worried going by the newspaper headlines tomorrow. Fox and Davies aren't swanning around getting any deals anywhere. UKIP are waiting in the wings ready to pounce ( I saw Diane James on tv today ). May is facing huge problems over the next few months and already rolling back. Sturgeon will have to wait and see how things pan out a bit first. Even before Article 50 is triggered.

Immigration: Points-based system not 'silver bullet', says May

Theresa May has cast doubt on the feasibility of a points-based system for controlling immigration into the UK, one of the key promises of Leave campaigners during the EU referendum.
Speaking in China, the PM acknowledged people had voted for more control on the numbers of people moving to the UK.
But she questioned whether a points system, backed by Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson among others, would work.
She suggested it was not a "silver bullet" for addressing public concerns.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37271420

Thrugelmir

Leanne1812 wrote: »

I should imagine once article 50 is invoked the important questions should be dealt with very promptly.

Two years to discuss. If there's no overall total formal agreement the UK can walk away. One option is to simply say that the UK will retain all existing EU legislation and ratify it into the constitution. The laws can then be picked through and rewritten over time. Points based immigration system would be straightforward and a way forward on both sides. Trade would continue whatever the outcome of the talks.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's not looking good.

It's not the right time, the ducks are most certainly not in a row.

Possibly failing twice within 2 years to gain independence is pretty damning. As it would be unlikely that any circumstances would 'materially change' after Brexit I would imagine that would be the last shot at independence for quite some time, probably happen again in my lifetime, but not by much.

Possibly why she'll go for it anyway to be honest. The Scottish Govt will be outlining their legislation for the coming parliament next week I think. There's likely to be referendum legislation within it.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Two years to discuss. If there's no overall total formal agreement the UK can walk away. One option is to simply say that the UK will retain all existing EU legislation and ratify it into the constitution. The laws can then be picked through and rewritten over time. Points based immigration system would be straightforward and a way forward on both sides. Trade would continue whatever the outcome of the talks.

See above. May is saying points based system might not be on the cards.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Sturgeon won't call a referendum before Article 50 is invoked, because May et al would then stall Article 50 saying they have to deal with Scotland first. And she can't call one after Scotland is well on the way out of the EU either, because then obviously, Scotland would then be out of the EU and that's not what Scotland's voters want.

So she'll do it sometime inbetween the two. But again, May is under some pressure at the moment.

Funny, because straight after the brexit vote you were bleating on about how sturgeon would be calling for Indy ref2 before article 50. Now you're back-pedalling to after.

The idea that sturgeon calls a ref while the two biggest influences are locked in their own complex negotiations is ridiculous. The international political fall-out of Scotland throwing that spanner in the works would kill an Indy vote stone dead.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Sturgeon won't call a referendum before Article 50 is invoked, because May et al would then stall Article 50 saying they have to deal with Scotland first. And she can't call one after Scotland is well on the way out of the EU either, because then obviously, Scotland would then be out of the EU and that's not what Scotland's voters want.

So she'll do it sometime inbetween the two. But again, May is under some pressure at the moment. It only seems to be posters on here that are of the opinion that Japan and what Obama said today were of no consequence. Elsewhere it seems that leavers are getting a little worried going by the newspaper headlines tomorrow. Fox and Davies aren't swanning around getting any deals anywhere. UKIP are waiting in the wings ready to pounce ( I saw Diane James on tv today ). May is facing huge problems over the next few months and already rolling back. Sturgeon will have to wait and see how things pan out a bit first. Even before Article 50 is triggered.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37271420

nicola won't call for a referendum until the polls show round 60% for a reasonable period

its really as simple as that