The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They usually wander off after getting bored debating with me.

Got a day job to do. Contributing to a reduction in the budget deficit. Words are easy. Action that makes a real difference is somewhat harder. Though there's a slow progressive change. Interesting times ahead.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

We all got a wonderful lesson in that a few weeks back. 'We're all fed up with experts' was the line wasn't it ? And your good self am afraid, is certainly no expert on absolutely anything Scotland related, bar what you read as gospel in the Telegraph and the Daily Mail.

Absolutely, I'm no expert on Scottish matters. That's absolutely why I had to read up about it and ask people like yourself and Hamish about the stats and figures. I've conceded that the £15bn deficit will be partly reduced by allocating all Scottish tax revenue to deal with it but a £9bn deficit still exists.

That is without taking into account the reduction in taxation from a reduction in jobs and revenue from trade when the 64% becomes Y% because of tariffs between the EU (of which Scotland is a member) and the rest of the UK.

ash28

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Gawd, not this old chestnut again. Countries 'in a sense'. The UK is a state, made up of nations. The clue is in the name.

Dancing on the head of a pin.

The UK is a nation state, France is a nation state so is Germany, so is the USA.

They are also countries. The UK nation state (also a country) is made up of four none sovereign countries or nations. Countries within a country.

If Scotland was recognised internationally as a country it would be negotiating its terms with the EU already, but as it isn't recognised as a country it can't, any more than England, Northern Ireland or Wales can.

I'm not dancing on the head of pin.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

AnotherJoe wrote: »

How on earth does joining and being ruled by the EU fit with that?
Seriously can you explain that? That's what I just don't get about the Scottish Nat position.

Britain isn't ruled by the EU.

Nor would Scotland be as part of the EU.

The nationalists may have a bee in their bonnet about "being ruled" by someone else but that's nonsense.

For me it's simply about the economics and the long term future.

Scotland would be better off as part of the EU than remaining in a diminished and increasingly isolated UK that was out of the EU.

Simples.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Britain isn't ruled by the EU.

Nor would Scotland be as part of the EU.

The nationalists may have a bee in their bonnet about "being ruled" by someone else but that's nonsense.

For me it's simply about the economics and the long term future.

Scotland would be better off as part of the EU than remaining in a diminished and increasingly isolated UK that was out of the EU.

Simples.

an 'independent' scotland within the EU, couldn't even decide the VAT on toilet paper
but I guess they can't now;

but they would be free of the hated English.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Britain isn't ruled by the EU.

Nor would Scotland be as part of the EU.

The nationalists may have a bee in their bonnet about "being ruled" by someone else but that's nonsense.

For me it's simply about the economics and the long term future.

Scotland would be better off as part of the EU than remaining in a diminished and increasingly isolated UK that was out of the EU.

Simples.

That doesn't account for Scottish trade with the rest of the UK in the short to medium term and the very real risk of destitution for many and emigration from Scotland during that period as an added consequence.

It doesn't account for being bound to 27 other countries preferences on trade deals. So while the UK is more nimble and freely able to negotiate as she pleases, an EU Scotland will be dragged wherever the other 27 members, possibly more in the future decide to take her.

The picture you paint of a diminished and isolated UK is less likely than that of a basket case Scotland. Even before sorting out access to the single market we (all of us currently) are aiming to have 12 trade deals sorted with countries we don't currently have free trade with before invoking article 50. So the 66% of UK trade which is done outside the EU gets a much needed boost and we sort what we can with a protectionist EU. This is almost the polar opposite to iScotland's situation in the EU. You're in the EU now and only about 15% of your trade goes there.

Please Hamish, you seem reasonable. Take a look at this documentation from the Scottish government and tell me if the graphics displaying Scottish trade indicate that the EU is the land of milk and honey.

http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Absolutely, I'm no expert on Scottish matters. That's absolutely why I had to read up about it and ask people like yourself and Hamish about the stats and figures. I've conceded that the £15bn deficit will be partly reduced by allocating all Scottish tax revenue to deal with it but a £9bn deficit still exists.

That is without taking into account the reduction in taxation from a reduction in jobs and revenue from trade when the 64% becomes Y% because of tariffs between the EU (of which Scotland is a member) and the rest of the UK.

Economist's eh. Never to be trusted.

It is time to accept the fact that Brexit may never actually happen

Morgan Stanley economists Jacob Nell and Melanie Baker published a fascinating note to investors this morning in which they attempt to figure out how the UK will actually leave the EU, and what the UK's post-Brexit relationship with Europe will look like. Nell and Baker do not make any specific predictions about how the UK will leave the EU, but they do point out two key facts:

• The EU will not give the UK a deal in which Britain gets access to the single market but opts out of the "freedom of movement" requirement that lets EU migrants into the country. In fact, the EU cannot give this deal to the UK because it would represent an existential threat to the EU itself: If one country gets access to the single market while controlling its own immigration borders, then every country in the EU will want to do the same.
• Leaving the EU will cause such massive damage to the UK economy that it might be political suicide for any government to actually leave despite the fact that a majority of people voted Leave in the EU Referendum.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-economic-consequences-may-never-happen-2016-7

No one HAS any concrete answers Tricky. You of all people should know that by now. It all depends on which 'expert' you ask.

Scotland is on a course to leave the United Kingdom within three years and introduce a currency of its own, investment bank JP Morgan has predicted. Malcolm Barr, an economist at the Wall Street bank, said that “pressure to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence” would come as the UK seeks to establish a new position for itself after this month’s Brexit vote.

Mr Barr said that Scotland could be expected to vote to split from the UK in a second referendum, held some time before he anticipates the UK will leave the EU in 2019.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/scotland-will-vote-for-independence-within-three-years-jp-morgan/

skintmacflint

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I must have been seeing things then when I watched Ruth Davidson give Boris Johnson what for on national tv... because she wants to stay in the EU ?

Remaining in the EU certainly isn't just an SNP issue.

Stop projecting. As democrats, none of the other Scottish party leaders, however disappointed charged out onto the world stage within 3 hours of the referendum decision stating Independence was now back on the table, as a result of a UK referendum.

Neither did any of the other party leaders who campaigned alongside Sturgeon and participated in the televised debates for Remain , urge Scottish voters in MSM on the eve of the referendum to vote remain if they wished a 2nd referendum. As Scotland voting to remain was the only way she could justify a 2nd referendum if Leave won.

Of course she missed out the fact it was a UK referendum, not a national one. But little details like this never get in the way of SNP smoke and mirrors rhetorical campaigning.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Economist's eh. Never to be trusted.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-economic-consequences-may-never-happen-2016-7

No one HAS any concrete answers Tricky. You of all people should know that by now. It all depends on which 'expert' you ask.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/scotland-will-vote-for-independence-within-three-years-jp-morgan/

I am no expert, I got this information from experts, I got it from the Scottish government. It is plain to see, it does not take a gcse in mathematics to understand it. One number is big and one number is small.

You and the SNP want to make the big number small, and hope the small number gets big.

That will make the numbers on working people's pay slips smaller numbers going in and bigger numbers going out.

You know, I think I might have actually gotten through to some of you indy supporters on here. And the flat out rejection of the basic economics of it is some kind of denial stage during the 5 stages of grief.

Because of this you're constantly clutching at straws to defend the idea you've invested so much time into. Like a seriously ill pet.

And perhaps you have no answer to the economic case because, well, there is no answer from a Scottish nationalist perspective. It's just not possible to solve in the Scottish nationalist paradigm.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Britain isn't ruled by the EU.

Nor would Scotland be as part of the EU.

The nationalists may have a bee in their bonnet about "being ruled" by someone else but that's nonsense.

For me it's simply about the economics and the long term future.

Scotland would be better off as part of the EU than remaining in a diminished and increasingly isolated UK that was out of the EU.

Simples.

FWIW our Chief Economist at work reckons that Scotland is going to quit the UK to join the EU. I have my doubts as I think the Spanish would veto it pour encourager les autres but it's just an opinion and opinions are just like bottoms; everyone has one and most of them stink!