The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

FWIW our Chief Economist at work reckons that Scotland is going to quit the UK to join the EU.

I reckon he's very possibly right.

The EU has already expressed a willingness to allow the UK or parts of it to remain in the single market - if the UK govt fails to agree a suitable compromise then that will be seen by the Scots (and NI and Gibraltar) as a deliberate and purely ideological dismissal of their democratic will in order to keep English voters happy.

We can probably just about accept coming out of the EU - there was an overall UK vote for Brexit - but also coming out of the single market (for which there has not been a UK wide vote) would be a step too far and a purely ideological move from the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party....

And worse it would be seen as pandering to a certain section of English voters for reasons that Scots would find particularly distasteful.

If May/Hammond/Davies try to take the UK out of the single market and don't find a compromise allowing Scotland full access we'll almost certainly vote to leave the UK.

I have my doubts as I think the Spanish would veto it pour encourager les autres

In 2014 they would have - no EU member state wanted to be seen to encourage the break up of another EU member state - but the politics of it this time are fundamentally different.

We now have a nation within an EU state that is already a member, that has expressed a clear democratic will to stay within the EU, and that risks being taken out of the EU against it's will.

No EU state will veto an attempt to stay in under those circumstances.

TrickyTree83

Don't see how it can be a positive economic argument in favour of leaving the UK to cut your trade and increase your borrowing.

Just in case you didn't click the link, here's the particular info-graphic I was referring you to.



Source: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication

And how are you going to pay this when you lose all that trade?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/24/ifs-scotland-debts-three-times-greater-uk

TrickyTree83

Generali wrote: »

FWIW our Chief Economist at work reckons that Scotland is going to quit the UK to join the EU. I have my doubts as I think the Spanish would veto it pour encourager les autres but it's just an opinion and opinions are just like bottoms; everyone has one and most of them stink!

I hope your chief economist has a sense of humour and is just pulling your leg. If not perhaps you ought to point it out to your management.

AnotherJoe

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Britain isn't ruled by the EU.

Nor would Scotland be as part of the EU.

Of course it is and would be. The laws (which is what being ruled by means) are set by the EU.
Fancy removing the tax on sanitary products in Scotland? Tough luck. Don't like Messieur Terrorist Suspect from France coming in? Tough luck free movement says he can.

If that level of detail isn't being ruled, goodness knows what is.

The economic argument is a different one entirely, you can take a position on that either way, but to pretend its about "independence" when you want to dive into being ruled by an undemocratic autocratic wannabee nation state with its own army is a joke.

Generali

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I hope your chief economist has a sense of humour and is just pulling your leg. If not perhaps you ought to point it out to your management.

To be fair to the man he had just come back from a week in the Northern Territory, a trying place at the best of times.

As to pointing it out to management, most of them were there!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Of course it is and would be. The laws (which is what being ruled by means) are set by the EU.

Far fewer laws (which would 90%+ only be about trade and trade regulations anyway) would be set by the EU than are currently set by the UK government.

An Indy Scotland would have far more autonomy as an EU member than Scotland today does as part of the UK.

The economic argument is a different one entirely, you can take a position on that either way, but to pretend its about "independence" when you want to dive into being ruled by .

I have no desire for independence from the UK and argued vociferously against it in 2014.

But Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, in 100% of local authority areas, and by a bigger margin than we voted to remain in the UK.

The democratic will of the Scottish people on this matter is clear.

an undemocratic autocratic wannabee nation state with its own army is a joke

Emotive nonsense.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Far fewer laws (which would 90%+ only be about trade and trade regulations anyway) would be set by the EU than are currently set by the UK government.

An Indy Scotland would have far more autonomy as an EU member than Scotland today does as part of the UK.



I have no desire for independence from the UK and argued vociferously against it in 2014.

But Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, in 100% of local authority areas, and by a bigger margin than we voted to remain in the UK.

The democratic will of the Scottish people on this matter is clear.



Emotive nonsense.

On the question of the UK remaining in the EU Scots appear to have opted for remaining that much is true. But when faced with a independence vote that will not be the only issue to consider. The questions now are different to those of 2014. It's far from a foregone conclusion and would appear that breaking away from the UK and joining the EU will cause major damage to the Scottish economy. Much more than Brexit will.

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And worse it would be seen as pandering to a certain section of English voters for reasons that Scots would find particularly distasteful.

Ah, Scottish exceptionalism again.
Brexit was in many ways an English 'peasants revolt'. It's no surprise to me that the areas of the U.K. that have been hardest hit by the austerity agenda voted to give the political class a kicking. Easy to be the oh so superior progressive and look down your nose at others political choices when you're being subsidised and have escaped the worst excesses of austerity.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

FWIW our Chief Economist at work reckons that Scotland is going to quit the UK to join the EU. I have my doubts as I think the Spanish would veto it pour encourager les autres but it's just an opinion and opinions are just like bottoms; everyone has one and most of them stink!

Talking of Spain and vetos..

Spain could veto Brexit talks, Margallo says

The Spanish Government will veto the terms of any Brexit negotiation between the UK and the EU that sought to include Gibraltar, Spain’s acting Foreign Minister Jos! Manuel Garc!a-Margallo said yesterday.
The minister said once the UK activates the withdrawal process under Article 50 of the EU treaty, the European Council must agree the broad terms of the withdrawal negotiation “by unanimity”.

http://chronicle.gi/2016/07/spain-could-veto-brexit-talks-margallo-says/

And another piece on the above from a more Scottish perspective. Full articles at the links. Too long to post in full.

Foreign minister Jose Manuel Garc!a-Margallo has been a busy man this week. Speaking earlier in the week about the situation of Gibraltar post-Brexit, the Spanish foreign minister did make an explicit threat of a veto. Only it wasn’t Scotland he threatened, he threatened to veto the terms of the UK’s Brexit if it includes Gibraltar....

....Last night there was a very interesting interview with Spanish foreign minister Jos! Manuel Garc!a-Margallo on the El Cascabel programme on Channel 13tv of Spanish television. The programme is available online for a limited period. Speaking about the dangers that occur when a party leaves the centre ground and flirts with extremism, Garc!a-Margallo said that Nigel Farage had succeeded in dragging the Conservative party and United Kingdom out of the EU, and added, “I may be wrong, but within four or five years England will return to the frontiers that it had in the sixteenth century.”

Asked by the interviewer Antonio Jim!nez to clarify his point and asked whether he was referring to Scotland, Garc!a-Margallo elaborated, “I believe that Scotland will demand an independence referendum in order to remain in the European Union.” He continued to speak of the problems that Northern Ireland would face as a result of the Brexit vote, and the risk to the peace process. At no point did he hint that Spain would veto Scottish membership of the EU if we vote for independence in the referendum that he expects us to have. “When you put the interests of your party before your country,” he went on, speaking about the British Conservatives, “the result is a catastrophe.”

https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/07/22/the-real-spanish-veto-threat/

Thrugelmir

Sounds as if the EU is going to disintegrate into total chaos. Merely illustrates that the EU was far from being in harmony. Self interest comes first. With stale mate they may well be some treaties sent to the shredder.