The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Arklight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Now it's you turning out the same old tripe as last time.

Why don't you just admit that regarding currency the SNP and any proposal put forward would be 'wrong' ? The last time they had nobel prize winners set out 4 or 5 different options. All wrong of course...Last ref Scotland couldn't use the £, now they're suggesting going with a new currency Scotland can't do that either ?

I don't give a stuff about currency. I'm happy enough to come to the conclusion that Scotland isn't the only country in the world who can't figure out what to use as currency. Most other countries manage it, there's no reason whatsoever why Scotland couldn't... apart from all the invented ones coming from folks like you and elsewhere.

We all know the a**e will fall out the £ when Scotland goes. That's why Westminster is so desperate not to have another referendum. They need Scotland to prop the £ up..so I wouldn't get your knickers too much in a twist about Scotland's currency. You'll have huge problems of your own to deal with once Scotland goes.

None of them would be "wrong" per se, they will just have consequences that the SNP aren't being honest enough to address. Like the nonsense about £350 million a week going to the NHS if the UK leaves the EU from the Brexitwits.

Would you invest in a newly created Scottish state, why?

If you live in Scotland and you have your life savings, let's say, £60,000 in sterling in a UK high street bank; and you receive notice from the newly appointed Scottish Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, that on separation this will be imminently converted to Scottish Newpounds at a rate of 1:1, what do you do? What if there are already rumours that to prevent a run on the banks accounts holding over £50,000 will be immediately frozen, as happened in Cyprus.

Do you accept this or immediately transfer it to a high street bank in England, or try and open a euro account.

I know what you personally would do, I am asking you to think realistically about what other people would do, and the amount of risk they are willing to take on for a complete unknown.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

You didn't make that same argument during the last Scottish indy ref did you?

The NI/ROI border is thorny, and right now it is holding up productive Brexit plans. It's a clear priority, and maybe we should ask the folk of NI.

And why should politicians that neither reside in NI OR Scotland get to decide and pick and choose which will 'have a say' first ?


This has just appeared in the Scotsman however, my browser can't cope with it os here's the blog instead. This is good news if Lesley Riddoch ( a prominent proponent and expert in Scandinavian politics ) is correct.

Senior officials in Iceland are openly discussing the many advantages of having Scotland as a new member of the EFTA halfway house and thereby creating a powerful bloc with three contiguous North Atlantic states controlling vital sea routes, fishing grounds, oil and gas fields and a vast wind, marine and geothermal renewable energy resource...

...Meanwhile, academics at the recent Oxford conference on Rewriting the UK Constitution have predicted that the EU will make a public offer to Scotland once Brexit means there’s no further risk in offending Britain and no conflict of interest in wooing the Scots instead. And why wouldn’t the EU want us? Regaining five million generally progressive, pro-EU citizens in the wake of Britain’s acrimonious departure would be an important boost to the European project.

https://target59.wordpress.com/2019/03/04/lesley-riddoch-things-are-hotting-up-on-indy-front/?fbclid=IwAR1WgzqpDD64kcUhrN2P78SBHVALf1NwwK_KltXBkAKckNF3nRgcLyfKW4E

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm happy enough to come to the conclusion that Scotland isn't the only country in the world who can't figure out what to use as currency.

They borrow and link primarily to the US $. Accordingly will suffer the consquences of Trump's policies......

Just as North Sea output is $ priced. Will make for interesting ride for an independent Scottish economy.

Shakethedisease

Arklight wrote: »

None of them would be "wrong" per se, they will just have consequences that the SNP aren't being honest enough to address. Like the nonsense about £350 million a week going to the NHS if the UK leaves the EU from the Brexitwits.

Would you invest in a newly created Scottish state, why?

If you live in Scotland and you have your life savings, let's say, £60,000 in sterling in a UK high street bank; and you receive notice from the newly appointed Scottish Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, that on separation this will be imminently converted to Scottish Newpounds at a rate of 1:1, what do you do? What if there are already rumours that to prevent a run on the banks accounts holding over £50,000 will be immediately frozen, as happened in Cyprus.

Do you accept this or immediately transfer it to a high street bank in England, or try and open a euro account.

I know what you personally would do, I am asking you to think realistically about what other people would do, and the amount of risk they are willing to take on for a complete unknown.

But you haven't read the proposals ? A new currency won't be implemented overnight, day 1. It will be over a number of years as the economies diverage and prioritise different areas. There won't be any run on banks or shocks to systems because it's going to take a while. Left leaning indy groups in Scotland are totally spitting feathers because they say it's not quick enough.

Personally, I’d reject the whole thing in favour of the motion committing to a Scottish currency as quickly as possible after a Yes vote. This was submitted by Edinburgh Central but, surprise surprise, it seems to have got ‘lost in the post’ and doesn’t appear on the conference agenda

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2019/03/02/poundland-3/


But with Brexit/Scotland leaving the £ is going to become a dead weight. So hopefully we won't be stuck using it for too long. I'd be far more worried about the attractiveness of a Brexiteered rUKwith little in the way of trade deals to be honest - when it comes to investors.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
But with Brexit/Scotland leaving the £ is going to become a dead weight. So hopefully we won't be stuck using it for too long. I'd be far more worried about the attractiveness of a Brexiteered rUKwith little in the way of trade deals to be honest - when it comes to investors.

There's too much foreign investment in the UK to let it slide.

That said, if you all vote to leave, then leave. It makes no odds to me. I respect the decision of a collective vote (unlike some...).

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But with Brexit/Scotland leaving the £ is going to become a dead weight.

Would you be happy to join the Eurozone and have no control over fiscal policy? The Scottish groat is going to store no value.

Arklight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But you haven't read the proposals ? A new currency won't be implemented overnight, day 1. It will be over a number of years as the economies diverage and prioritise different areas. There won't be any run on banks or shocks to systems because it's going to take a while. Left leaning indy groups in Scotland are totally spitting feathers because they say it's not quick enough. https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2019/03/02/poundland-3/


But with Brexit/Scotland leaving the £ is going to become a dead weight. So hopefully we won't be stuck using it for too long. I'd be far more worried about the attractiveness of a Brexiteered rUKwith little in the way of trade deals to be honest - when it comes to investors.

According to you Scotland's economy already diverges from the UK (oil, fish and whisky). How are you going to create a divergent economic policy in an independent country by using another country's currency?

The amount of years you wait has little relevance, at some point the groat or whatever has to return. It may well do more harm having the threat of it hanging around for years than just getting on with it now.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Would you be happy to join the Eurozone and have no control over fiscal policy? The Scottish groat is going to store no value.

Any reason you can think of why Scotland couldn't use a 'Scottish pound' the way the Danes use the Krone or Switzerland the Swiss franc ?


Why must Scotland use the Euro ?

Shakethedisease

Arklight wrote: »

According to you Scotland's economy already diverges from the UK (oil, fish and whisky). How are you going to create a divergent economic policy in an independent country by using another country's currency?

The amount of years you wait has little relevance, at some point the groat or whatever has to return. It may well do more harm having the threat of it hanging around for years than just getting on with it now.

The UK Treasury pockets the tax money from all of those ( whisky etc). Until the tax from them goes straight to Holyrood's coffers, then it's pretty obvious there's very little Scotland can do to 'diverge' unless it's tinkering round the edges via devolution. Even that can be over ruled if Westminster doesn't like it, so there's a real lack of control issue as well.

The UK £ is as much Scotlands £ as it is England's. However, given the hysteria last time over the whole issue, it's good the SNP are addressing it up front. Moving towards a new currency in a pragmatic, measured and transitionary way. The fact that both folks like you AND rad left indy groups are all finding fault with it.. probably means they're in middling ground and have the balance just about right this time round.

I can't see any Scottish party surviving in it's current form for very long after independence. So currency and diverging economies are issues likely only to be fully addressed AFTER independence, and via party manifestos in the first elections. But for the moment the SNP are presenting a new currency, phased in over a number of years. No shocks, no bank runs, no sudden mortgages doubling overnight the day after a vote.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
The UK £ is as much Scotlands £ as it is England's. However, given the hysteria last time over the whole issue, it's good the SNP are addressing it up front. Moving towards a new currency in a pragmatic, measured and transitionary way. The fact that both folks like you AND rad left indy groups are all finding fault with it.. probably means they're in middling ground and have the balance just about right this time round.
...

Hmm, measured you say?

Care to give us any of these measurements in time form?

What about transition windows. How long?

I know your success with predictions in the past has been less than stellar, but hey, no reason not to try a few more