The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

The SNP's plan to abrogate the perceived economic disaster of Brexit is to seemingly subject the Scottish people to an even bigger economic disaster, namely Scottish independence. Genius.

I'm sure you'd like to think that. But a Brexit UK Scotland has no say in out of the Single Market/Customs Union and with little in the way of trade deals ?
Compared to an independent Scotland in the Single Market/Customs Union fully in control and still able to trade with both the EU and rUK ?

You're on the wrong side of the economic status quo with positive arguements for the UK now. Scottish independence after Brexit will be all about maintaining some sort of economic status quo with both the EU and rUK. The rUK will be losing both... Good luck whoever is selling that to voters during any 'consultation' the Scottish Govt decides to put to the Scottish electorate in the next few months.

A section 30 needs refused first. But from what I see the SNP are going forward knowing full well it will be refused and plans are well in place now. The important part is for Scots to have a vote whatever it's called. And if Labour can spend 3 years getting away with talking about 'a customs union' as opposed to 'the customs union'. The SNP can certainly get away with renaming 'the indy referendum2' into 'a consultation with Scots on indyref2'. The resulting outcome will be the same.

cogito

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm sure you'd like to think that. But a Brexit UK Scotland has no say in out of the Single Market/Customs Union and with little in the way of trade deals ?
Compared to an independent Scotland in the Single Market/Customs Union fully in control and still able to trade with both the EU and rUK ?

You're on the wrong side of the economic status quo with positive arguements for the UK now. Scottish independence after Brexit will be all about maintaining some sort of economic status quo with both the EU and rUK. The rUK will be losing both... Good luck whoever is selling that to voters during any 'consultation' the Scottish Govt decides to put to the Scottish electorate in the next few months.

A section 30 needs refused first. But from what I see the SNP are going forward knowing full well it will be refused and plans are well in place now. The important part is for Scots to have a vote whatever it's called. And if Labour can spend 3 years getting away with talking about 'a customs union' as opposed to 'the customs union'. The SNP can certainly get away with renaming 'the indy referendum2' into 'a consultation with Scots on indyref2'. The resulting outcome will be the same.

rUK will be keeping all the billions of Barnett money. Good luck without it.

Shakethedisease

cogito wrote: »

rUK will be keeping all the billions of Barnett money. Good luck without it.

You'll certainly need it ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rp2XS1nbvA&feature=youtu.be

Jim Rodgers of Rogers Trading says that without Scottish Oil, England will not survive its debt obligations.

kabayiri

The next region which should get an independence vote before Scotland is NI.

They have pressing border issues with an EU state. Scotland doesn't.

Form an orderly queue !

Angus_Og

Shakethedisease wrote: »

An outright independence question won't be asked, it'll be phrased in such a way so it's more of a 'consultation' with the Scottish electorate,

Which of the Scottish people would you be consulting? Just those true to the cause?

Otherwise your consultation is doomed to failure.

Angus_Og

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Jim Rodgers

You mean the guy who is great friends of George Soros?

Right.

Arklight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You'll certainly need it ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rp2XS1nbvA&feature=youtu.be

Sterling is a reserve currency, so while all kinds of privations can be visited upon people trying to use it in an economic collapse, it is unlikely that that the UK won't be able to meet its immediate debt obligations, because the immediate solution is to print more. Of course that isn't great for confidence or selling bonds, or creating inward investment, but that's a different matter.

Although you and the rest of the SNP types don't want to talk about it, currency is a huge problem for an independent Scotland.

You could either continue to use the pound, which is your least worst option. The rUK would facilitate this but that will put you as a very junior partner in a currency union with the UK, which will look very like a political union, which will look like not independence.

Or there's joining the EU and using the euro, which won't give you any fiscal autonomy again (a fledgling country purporting to be independent needs control over its own interest rates) and there's a huge question mark hanging over what will happen while you wait to join.

Or there's using your own new currency. In the long term this might be the best option but there are huge risks in the short term.

There is no scenario where Scotland dances out of the UK and into independence (at best with a wafer thin majority in favour of doing so) without real economic hardship.

Like the Brexiters, Scottish Leavers do themselves no favours by avoiding these hard topics. As it is Scotland will probably be inured from the worst of Brexit by Westminster's terror of fomenting more nationalism and can adopt a wait and see attitude over eventually joining the EU.

But that is a generation or more away.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

The next region which should get an independence vote before Scotland is NI.

They have pressing border issues with an EU state. Scotland doesn't.

Form an orderly queue !

No reason why both can't have their say at the same time.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No reason why both can't have their say at the same time.

You didn't make that same argument during the last Scottish indy ref did you?

The NI/ROI border is thorny, and right now it is holding up productive Brexit plans. It's a clear priority, and maybe we should ask the folk of NI.

Shakethedisease

Arklight wrote: »

Sterling is a reserve currency, so while all kinds of privations can be visited upon people trying to use it in an economic collapse, it is unlikely that that the UK won't be able to meet its immediate debt obligations, because the immediate solution is to print more. Of course that isn't great for confidence or selling bonds, or creating inward investment, but that's a different matter.

Although you and the rest of the SNP types don't want to talk about it, currency is a huge problem for an independent Scotland.

You could either continue to use the pound, which is your least worst option. The rUK would facilitate this but that will put you as a very junior partner in a currency union with the UK, which will look very like a political union, which will look like not independence.

Or there's joining the EU and using the euro, which won't give you any fiscal autonomy again (a fledgling country purporting to be independent needs control over its own interest rates) and there's a huge question mark hanging over what will happen while you wait to join.

Or there's using your own new currency. In the long term this might be the best option but there are huge risks in the short term.

There is no scenario where Scotland dances out of the UK and into independence (at best with a wafer thin majority in favour of doing so) without real economic hardship.

Like the Brexiters, Scottish Leavers do themselves no favours by avoiding these hard topics. As it is Scotland will probably be inured from the worst of Brexit by Westminster's terror of fomenting more nationalism and can adopt a wait and see attitude over eventually joining the EU.

But that is a generation or more away.

Now it's you turning out the same old tripe as last time.

Why don't you just admit that regarding currency the SNP and any proposal put forward would be 'wrong' ? The last time they had nobel prize winners set out 4 or 5 different options. All wrong of course...Last ref Scotland couldn't use the £, now they're suggesting going with a new currency Scotland can't do that either ?

I don't give a stuff about currency. I'm happy enough to come to the conclusion that Scotland isn't the only country in the world who can't figure out what to use as currency. Most other countries manage it, there's no reason whatsoever why Scotland couldn't... apart from all the invented ones coming from folks like you and elsewhere.

We all know the a**e will fall out the £ when Scotland goes. That's why Westminster is so desperate not to have another referendum. They need Scotland to prop the £ up..so I wouldn't get your knickers too much in a twist about Scotland's currency. You'll have huge problems of your own to deal with once Scotland goes.