The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Blimey. Do you really think for the last five or six years I've been basing all my posts, including those regarding the EU/Brexit etc on a Scotland which is still in the UK ? How strange ?

Of course I don't need you to tell me that Scotland able to choose it's own future when independent. For clarity I can tell you that I AM talking about Scotland being independent when I mention EEA/EFTA/Brexit and the EU.

But Scotland is not independent. So all this talk about 'remaining' in the 'single market' is hogwash.

And yet you keep repeating that claim.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
Antrobus, take a breath. I'm simply pointing out that over the last few weeks notable MP's, MSP's and ex First Ministers all seem to have been sending kite's up. All of them starting to murmur and appear in various media outlets talking about very quick referendums and Holyrood mandates if there's no deal. You and I both know it's no coincidence and they're preparing the groundwork. The SNP run too tight a ship for that.

Flying kites just about sums it up. But only a legal referendum can decide the issue of independence. The constitution is a reserved matter under the Scotland Act 1998.

I fully understand that your position is that 'some kind of vote' is supposed to be held in spring 2019, and that you hope that it will produce the 'right result'. But that will not make Scotland independent.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
Re Norway and Iceland. Again I cannot think why you are under the impression when I post that I'm posting about a Scotland within a UK context ? Once Scotland IS independent then none of the above waffle applies apart from maybe having to apply to EFTA etc. The difficulties are going to be in the transitional state but once more I have to point out that this isn't going to be the end result.. which ultimately will be an independent Scotland in EFTA. Trading with both the EU via the Single Market and a FTA with rUK.

But Scotland is not independent. It might or might not become independent at some point in the future. But it's not going to become independent anytime before March 2019.

You might well hope that the 'end result' will be an independent Scotland in EFTA. But that's years away. There needs to be another legal referendum with the right result. Then there needs to be negotiations. It isn't going to be easy disentangling a 300 year old political and economic union. Agreement would be required on all sorts of tricky issues, such as how to divvy up unfunded public sector pensions etc and so forth.

None of which changes the fact that Scotland is now part of the UK. And if when the UK exits the EU on whatever terms are agreed, then so will Scotland.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

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Fishing grounds. Not talking about CFP. I'm talking about selling and processing the fish needing Single Market access. As Grimsby is now finding out.

There's a lot of fish and fishing grounds in Scotland too. fishermen and processing need the single market for quick selling on a cross border basis re fresh supply. ]

The EU and Norway are signatories to the 1992 Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA Agreement), which provides for the free movement of goods, with the exception of agricultural and fisheries products.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/eu-and-norway-conclude-negotiations-enhance-trade-agricultural-products-2017-apr-07_en

Norway and the EU have just spent two years negotiating an agreement to "facilitate bilateral trade in agricultural products". So there you go. You apply to join EFTA, then you apply to join the EEA, then you negotiate a deal on fishing products with the EU.

Arklight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Goodness me. You're years behind everyone else with this stuff. I rarely use Wings over Scotland as a source, there's no point on here as I learnt round about 2013. Folks just discount the piece then start rabbiting on about Bath and the blogger himself rather than the issues and points raised. Not worth reading the repetition of the same old pearl clutching faux outrage.

Am sure Kezia will have plenty of cash from her stint in 'I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here'.

As for this Seriously cognito ? I was pointing out the shallow means nothing context of the in the face of an in-depth discussion on LBGT rights and then an interview with the Catalonian President filmed in a hidden location in Belgium. Not that I didn't know what the tweets meant. :rotfl:

Like I said if that's all Staines had to complain about the show must've done something right.

I don't mind debating issues raised in Wings but its a freedom for Scotland blog written by a man who lives as geographically far away from Scotland as he can get while still maintaining his comfortable life in one of the most pleasant parts of the UK.

He's a bit like an expat in the Algarve carping about how awful the UK is and that he won't come back until Nigel Farage is made head of state.

I had a look at the front page of Wings just now and there are some issues there, including some valid arguments about PFI deals. It's hard to see how Indy Scotland would avoid doubling down on these though.

Shakethedisease

Arklight wrote: »

I don't mind debating issues raised in Wings but its a freedom for Scotland blog written by a man who lives as geographically far away from Scotland as he can get while still maintaining his comfortable life in one of the most pleasant parts of the UK.

He's a bit like an expat in the Algarve carping about how awful the UK is and that he won't come back until Nigel Farage is made head of state.

I had a look at the front page of Wings just now and there are some issues there, including some valid arguments about PFI deals. It's hard to see how Indy Scotland would avoid doubling down on these though.

He's pro-indy that's for sure, but he's never been SNP and never hidden where he lives. That he lives in Bath is not news to anyone who follows Scottish politics.

He focuses on debunking newspaper and media stories using official checkable sources. And it has to be said is extremely successful at what he does. He takes a story and dissects it. That being said I almost never copy and cite WoS directly as a 'source' while posting here as antrobus has suggested. There's very little point.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

But Scotland is not independent. So all this talk about 'remaining' in the 'single market' is hogwash.

And yet you keep repeating that claim.:)
Flying kites just about sums it up. But only a legal referendum can decide the issue of independence. The constitution is a reserved matter under the Scotland Act 1998.

I fully understand that your position is that 'some kind of vote' is supposed to be held in spring 2019, and that you hope that it will produce the 'right result'. But that will not make Scotland independent.

But Scotland is not independent. It might or might not become independent at some point in the future. But it's not going to become independent anytime before March 2019.

You might well hope that the 'end result' will be an independent Scotland in EFTA. But that's years away. There needs to be another legal referendum with the right result. Then there needs to be negotiations. It isn't going to be easy disentangling a 300 year old political and economic union. Agreement would be required on all sorts of tricky issues, such as how to divvy up unfunded public sector pensions etc and so forth.

None of which changes the fact that Scotland is now part of the UK. And if when the UK exits the EU on whatever terms are agreed, then so will Scotland.

The EU and Norway are signatories to the 1992 Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA Agreement), which provides for the free movement of goods, with the exception of agricultural and fisheries products.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/eu-and-norway-conclude-negotiations-enhance-trade-agricultural-products-2017-apr-07_en

Norway and the EU have just spent two years negotiating an agreement to "facilitate bilateral trade in agricultural products". So there you go. You apply to join EFTA, then you apply to join the EEA, then you negotiate a deal on fishing products with the EU.

We're dancing round the same mulberry bush. You can say what you like about the difficulties and challenges you see ahead, or what's a legal vote or not. The plain facts are staring right at you.

The SNP are preparing to take Scotland to a vote ( legal/referendum/election/whatever) regardless of Westminster. They're also preparing to offer EFTA as an option rather than full membership of the EU. It's why Salmond, Wishart etc have all been briefing Scottish media over the last few weeks. Then this appeared in the National this morning.

Ducks in a row. Can you not see it ?

Growth Commission to unveil fiscal blueprint for prosperity in independent Scotland

THE First Minister is preparing to publish a key document setting out a fresh economic case for independence, as expectation grows of a referendum before 2021.
Nicola Sturgeon told 500 guests at an SNP fundraising event in Glasgow that she would be unveiling the party’s Growth Commission report in the new year....

...It is understood the report, running to more than 100 pages, is divided into three sections, with one dedicated to fiscal policy, a second to inclusive growth and a third to currency...

...He added a substantial part of it considered Scotland’s economic situation now, post Brexit – and not as it could be under independence.

http://thenational.scot/news/15673056.Growth_Commission_set_to_unveil_fresh_case_for_independence_in_early_2018/

Rumours actually are of a vote in Sept 2018. Sturgeon won't allow under any circumstances Scotland to be taken out of the Single Market without a vote. A vote which they are quietly preparing for now. The Leave result in the Brexit ref was always going to end this way for Scotland. Only by going back to the electorate can the question finally be answered.

If it is a Yes vote. You haven't said how Westminster could possibly just ignore it or indeed what the point would be if a majority of Scots voters prefer Holyrood governance to Westminster ?

Shakethedisease

Is all getting interesting now isn't it.

Scottish independence voting intention:
Yes: 47%
No: 53%
via @Survation 3 Dec 2017

Nicola Sturgeon‏Verified account @NicolaSturgeon
If one part of UK can retain regulatory alignment with EU and effectively stay in the single market (which is the right solution for Northern Ireland) there is surely no good practical reason why others can’t.

11 hrs ago
Nicola Sturgeon says new year report will make a fresh case for independence

The First Minister told up to 300 members of the SNP’s national council meeting in Perth the party’s Growth Commission report would be unveiled in 2018.
“She said it would be published early in the new year and that it would be a catalyst for relaunching the arguments for independence,”

http://www.thenational.scot/politics/15699490.Nicola_Sturgeon_says_new_year_report_will_make_a_fresh_case_for_independence/

I don't envy Theresa right now in trying to keep everyone happy. But if NI do get a special status then Scotland will ask for the same. There also will be lots of prominent unionists backing Sturgeon 100% and calling for a special deal for Scotland too ( better that than an indy vote with Yes starting at 47% this time !)... If it's not granted then there will be an indy vote off the back of it. If NI don't get a special status, it's a 'no deal' for the UK and Scotland is out of the SM/CU then it's an all in 'nothing to lose by going for it' indy vote too.

A special deal, if it happens, for NI means the repetitive narrative that Brexit was 'a UK wide vote' so all areas/nations of the UK have to go along with it.. is stone dead.

LABMAN

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Is all getting interesting now isn't it.
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/15699490.Nicola_Sturgeon_says_new_year_report_will_make_a_fresh_case_for_independence/

I don't envy Theresa right now in trying to keep everyone happy. But if NI do get a special status then Scotland will ask for the same. There also will be lots of prominent unionists backing Sturgeon 100% and calling for a special deal for Scotland too ( better that than an indy vote with Yes starting at 47% this time !)... If it's not granted then there will be an indy vote off the back of it. If NI don't get a special status, it's a 'no deal' for the UK and Scotland is out of the SM/CU then it's an all in 'nothing to lose by going for it' indy vote too.

A special deal, if it happens, for NI means the repetitive narrative that Brexit was 'a UK wide vote' so all areas/nations of the UK have to go along with it.. is stone dead.

Care to remind us what you have typed in the past regarding polls? Was it polls...shmolls...or something similar?

[Deleted User]

Interesting developments.... moving to 5 bands, with a new lower starting point.

Summary - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-42356953

Support from other MSPs needed, but interesting approach.

WR

mrginge

Maybe the snp have realised that in order to be a credible government, you have to actually govern.

[Deleted User]

mrginge wrote: »

Maybe the snp have realised that in order to be a credible government, you have to actually govern.

If by that you mean having a more progressive income tax system and prioritising public services, then you may be right. Any chance Westminster might take the same view?

WR

Thrugelmir

Wild_Rover wrote: »

If by that you mean having a more progressive income tax system and prioritising public services, then you may be right. Any chance Westminster might take the same view?

WR

Does little to improve the economic outlook for Scotland though. Which looks very poor in the years to come. Makes for great headlines, but lacks any imagination.