The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

elantan

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

Probably don't really need one it will be lite version of Labour's manifesto with a Scottish twist.

With plenty of freebies thrown in, to bribe the electorate, with little to no thought going to how it will be funded because the fall back in explaining any shortfall will be evil Tory cuts.

Ermmmmm isn't Labour trying to copy the SNP ? Not the other way about

Shakethedisease

cogito wrote: »

Come again. Am I missing something or did Sturgeon not say many times that she wanted a referendum in 2018, i.e. before Brexit terms are known?

Yes you've definitely missed something. Brexit talks due to finish Sept 2018 and spend 6 months being ratified and voted on in the EU - March 2019. Sturgeon has always said that this 6 month window ( whenever it occurs if talks are extended etc ), when the full terms of the UK leaving the EU are known and all the other countries are voting on it, so will Scotland. If the terms are clear enough for 27 other countries to vote on it there's no reason why Scotland shouldn't either.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Because of the trend against independence as an idea, the litany of SNP failures (always happens when in government, would happen with any other party too to be fair), the momentum that is with the Conservatives, the level of support in the council elections. All into a gut feeling that the Conservatives will be low teens and the SNP high 30's.

The trend is static. It was 45% in 2014 and it's 45% now by the last poll. Momentum ( before the horrific events last night ) was with Corbyn. May's not looking so strong and stable anymore and as a result Davidson will take the flak in Scotland having to defend u-turns over social care, winter fuel payments - she seems to be promising Scots voters that her own party will take them away but the SNP will mitigate from the Scottish budget when the payments are removed in 2019 ( wth ? ) -. Possibly splitting the unionist vote as happened in 2015.

We might have reached peak Tory with the council elections to be honest. :cool:

mollycat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The trend is static. It was 45% in 2014 and it's 45% now by the last poll. Momentum ( before the horrific events last night ) was with Corbyn. May's not looking so strong and stable anymore and as a result Davidson will take the flak in Scotland having to defend u-turns over social care, winter fuel payments - she seems to be promising Scots voters that her own party will take them away but the SNP will mitigate from the Scottish budget when the payments are removed in 2019 ( wth ? ) -. Possibly splitting the unionist vote as happened in 2015.

We might have reached peak Tory with the council elections to be honest. :cool:

Opinion written as fact, (again)

Hint....Try using phrases such as "I think,..." or "In my opinion...."

Might come over more as "ordinary punter" rather than "SNP employee putting out tonight's spin for the masses".

Just a thought..:)

A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life

The Question:

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

To clarify then, you suggest that if the SNP get less than 50% of the vote in the GE on June 8th you will accept that there is currently no mandate for the SNP position & wishes?

The deflection:

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Are you living in some sort of time warp where we've all been fast forwarded to after the Brexit talks ?

Any vote number, vote share or number of seats is irrelevant in 2017. That's because Scots voters at the current time do not have the full facts and are not fully informed on what Brexit terms the UK will leave on. Neither are they fully informed as yet as to the direction the current Scottish Govt and other interested pro-indepedence groups (assuming a Yes vote) want to take Scotland in the next few years.

This GE cannot be a referendum or a judgement call on independence, for the simple reason that Scottish voters are not fully informed and not aware of the short term consequences of either Brexit nor independence and won't be until 2019. Now May can huff and puff and so can you about appetites for independence in 2017, but you cannot predict what kind of appetite there will be in 2019. Nor can you use the results of a GE held a full two years beforehand as any sort of binding judgement.

Sure once Brexit talks are over with and the SNP and various Yes groups have released all their white papers, reports and commissions in support of independence.. then make a judgement. But it's definitely not one that can be made now. The facts aren't clear yet. Once they are then fill your boots.

See the stuff above that I've highlighted in red?
It looks like somebody is that busy trying to dodge answering that they haven't properly read the question. Forget your waffle Shakey.
Listen to what you just wrote yourself:

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The trend is static. It was 45% in 2014 and it's 45% now by the last poll.

Hurrah!
45% is not enough though is it? It wasn't enough in 2014 & it won't be enough now.
Since you wrote the figures yersel' we'll take it as settled then.

Shakethedisease

A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life wrote: »

The Question:

The deflection:

See the stuff above that I've highlighted in red?
It looks like somebody is that busy trying to dodge answering that they haven't properly read the question. Forget your waffle Shakey.
Listen to what you just wrote yourself:
Hurrah!
45% is not enough though is it? It wasn't enough in 2014 & it won't be enough now.
Since you wrote the figures yersel' we'll take it as settled then.

There's no defection. When Scotland has a vote, it will come after the Brexit talks finish because only then will we know what we're voting on.

What you and other's here are going blue in the face trying to prove is that this GE will decide whether we have a vote based on current support for independence while we don't know what we're voting on. It's not going to happen like that and you can take from that what you like.

Holyrood will call a vote one way or the other in two years time. It doesn't matter if the Tories have 3, 13 or even 23 MP's. Nor what the vote share is next month because by then it'll all be about Brexit and whether Scotland needs to launch the life boats. People can still vote No if they wish, but denying the choice from happening at all isn't going to happen.

.string.

I wonder how the SNP will be able to state authoratively what the prospects are, and what the timing is, for Natland's accession to the sunny uplands of the EU when no-one from the EU is going to talk to them. Or EFTA come to that, or the UK actually.

Hint - wishfully thinking.

I'm thinking of a time after Brexit has been fully negotiated and has bedded in, not when the framework for its finalisation is reaching its end game.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There's no defection. When Scotland has a vote, it will come after the Brexit talks finish because only then will we know what we're voting on.

What you and other's here are going blue in the face trying to prove is that this GE will decide whether we have a vote based on current support for independence while we don't know what we're voting on. It's not going to happen like that and you can take from that what you like.

Holyrood will call a vote one way or the other in two years time. It doesn't matter if the Tories have 3, 13 or even 23 MP's. Nor what the vote share is next month because by then it'll all be about Brexit and whether Scotland needs to launch the life boats. People can still vote No if they wish, but denying the choice from happening at all isn't going to happen.

You keep repetitively using the same tired old replies without considering reality or that other possibilities exist.
Because regarding the bit there highlighted in red, you are making assumptions and there are other possibilities than your myopic viewpoint.

That the SNP will have the numbers or/and support needed to call for this vote in parliament for example. That is by no means certain although it is admittedly likely.
129 seats, 65 needed for a majority.
The current number held by the SNP is 63, not a majority.
The next election is due May 2021.
But is there though possibility of a Scottish snap election?
For example if the remaining 66 request one, or for example if SNP support should decline?

Then there remains Westminster's approval.
If there's no evidence that the Scottish people want a vote then - no matter what parliament decides - the granting to go ahead with another referendum is unlikely.

I'm not suggesting that these scenarios are likely.
What I am saying is that they are possible.
Equally as possible as Holyrood voting for another referendum perhaps.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You keep repetitively using the same tired old replies without considering reality or that other possibilities exist.
Because regarding the bit there highlighted in red, you are making assumptions and there are other possibilities than your myopic viewpoint.

That the SNP will have the numbers or/and support needed to call for this vote in parliament for example. That is by no means certain although it is admittedly likely.
129 seats, 65 needed for a majority.
The current number held by the SNP is 63, not a majority.
The next election is due May 2021.
But is there though possibility of a Scottish snap election?
For example if the remaining 66 request one, or for example if SNP support should decline?

Then there remains Westminster's approval.
If there's no evidence that the Scottish people want a vote then - no matter what parliament decides - the granting to go ahead with another referendum is unlikely.

I'm not suggesting that these scenarios are likely.
What I am saying is that they are possible.
Equally as possible as Holyrood voting for another referendum perhaps.

That Holyrood will call a vote has already been decided and voted on. Should Scotland look like being out of the Single Market then it'll be called. End of story. Sturgeon and Harvie won't care what the polls show if the only alternative is being outside the Single Market ...and there's a good chance by then neither will Scottish Labour.

If I'm repeating the same things it's because you keep failing to see the simple logic behind the above paragraph. Scotland leaving the Single Market means another Scottish vote. You can waffle on and invent as many different scenarios as you like, but it's Single Market membership Sturgeon wants above all else at the present time. Even to the extent of calling off a referendum if May took forward her 'Scotland in Europe' proposals last year ( May didn't ).

The only way now of keeping Scotland in the Single Market is a Scottish referendum/vote. So that's what's going to happen, either via court to establish the legalities behind a section 30, or via an election in 2019. No vote share, vote numbers nor Scottish Tory MP's can stop it happening either.

But if you take one thing on board for now, please remember that it's Single Market membership above all else for Scotland Sturgeon is desperate to keep. Once you see that and if you can put all the anti-independence stuff to the side for a minute.. you will understand exactly why this GE means absolutely b****r all much in the wider context of things. And I won't have to keep repeating myself because you keep entirely missing the total point of having a second ref in two years time ( Brexit/loss of Single Market membership ).

cogito

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes you've definitely missed something. Brexit talks due to finish Sept 2018 and spend 6 months being ratified and voted on in the EU - March 2019. Sturgeon has always said that this 6 month window ( whenever it occurs if talks are extended etc ), when the full terms of the UK leaving the EU are known and all the other countries are voting on it, so will Scotland. If the terms are clear enough for 27 other countries to vote on it there's no reason why Scotland shouldn't either.

What you've missed is that the period for negotiations can be extended if the parties agree.