The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The FPTP system as I'm sure you're aware disappears votes cast in constituencies where the vote was not with the winning candidate.

That is/would be a deliberate misrepresentation of the level of support for the SNP, particularly on the topic of independence.

And since the SNP are a party whose sole purpose is independence ........ which is the part ISTL will not see although I am getting there with him:
We are talking desire for Scottish independence.
Independence can only be a binary "Yes" or "No".
So again:

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

There is however only one cake.

MOST of the cake remains the biggest amount of that cake.
The biggest amount being somewhere over half.

The SNP = independence for Scotland.
Independence = straight yes or no.
So if under 50% = no independence.
Ergo under 50% vote for SNP = no mandate for independence.
MOST (as you now prove you understand) will not have voted for independence, see?

Not difficult is it?
I am so pleased to have made that clear for you ISTL.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What do you think the split will be?

SNP between 40 & 45% of votes cast - probably lower estimate than higher.

TrickyTree83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

What do you think the split will be?

I'm expecting Conservative seats to be in the low teens with the number of SNP seats slipping to below 40. Just my feeling.

IveSeenTheLight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

And since the SNP are a party whose sole purpose is independence ........ which is the part ISTL will not see although I am getting there with him:
We are talking desire for Scottish independence.

Agreed, your talking about desire for a Scottish independence and I'm arguing that the General Election is not a vote on a single issue
Therefore, cannot be derived as any clear indication on Independence desire

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Independence can only be a binary "Yes" or "No".

Agreed

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

The SNP = independence for Scotland.
Independence = straight yes or no.
So if under 50% = no independence.
Ergo under 50% vote for SNP = no mandate for independence.
MOST (as you now prove you understand) will not have voted for independence, see?

Not difficult is it?
I am so pleased to have made that clear for you ISTL.

Nope, you've fallen into the flaw of thinking the GE is about Independence only.

When you go to the polling station on Thursday 08th June, the question will not be

Should Scotland be an Independent Country?

It will look something like this


Only granting the Section 30 request will progress us towards the binary question and the real verification if leaving Brexit is significant enough of a change to alter the result achieved in 2014

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

We're getting there ..........


Nope, you've fallen into the flaw of thinking the GE is about Independence only.
No.
The SNP are about independence only, NOT the General Election.

Only granting the Section 30 request will progress us towards the binary question and the real verification if leaving Brexit is significant enough of a change to alter the result achieved in 2014
If a majority of voters agree with you they will vote SNP.
Because that is what the SNP want.
*NOTE* : "Majority of voters* as in 50% plus.

Keep going.
You're getting there.
Two out of three so far, yay.
So slowly but surely you're getting there.
Now, read the highlighted above again.

If you disagree that the SNP are purely pro independence explain why else they exist?

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'm expecting Conservative seats to be in the low teens with the number of SNP seats slipping to below 40. Just my feeling.

The low teens is higher than I have been reading.
What is this based on?

The Telegraph showed an analysis of targetting 9 SNP seats and one Labour Seat

[URL="Analysis: How the Conservatives can take nine seats off the SNP at the 2017 General Election"]Analysis: How the Conservatives can take nine seats off the SNP at the 2017 General Election[/URL]

Of those 10 targetted seats (using recent polls), 70% are under 50% chance of winning.

They are targetting a further 7 more according to the article, however they have a lower calculated percentage chance of winning

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

To clarify then, you suggest that if the SNP get less than 50% of the vote in the GE on June 8th you will accept that there is currently no mandate for the SNP position & wishes?

Are you living in some sort of time warp where we've all been fast forwarded to after the Brexit talks ?

Any vote number, vote share or number of seats is irrelevant in 2017. That's because Scots voters at the current time do not have the full facts and are not fully informed on what Brexit terms the UK will leave on. Neither are they fully informed as yet as to the direction the current Scottish Govt and other interested pro-indepedence groups (assuming a Yes vote) want to take Scotland in the next few years.

This GE cannot be a referendum or a judgement call on independence, for the simple reason that Scottish voters are not fully informed and not aware of the short term consequences of either Brexit nor independence and won't be until 2019. Now May can huff and puff and so can you about appetites for independence in 2017, but you cannot predict what kind of appetite there will be in 2019. Nor can you use the results of a GE held a full two years beforehand as any sort of binding judgement.

Sure once Brexit talks are over with and the SNP and various Yes groups have released all their white papers, reports and commissions in support of independence.. then make a judgement. But it's definitely not one that can be made now. The facts aren't clear yet. Once they are then fill your boots.

IveSeenTheLight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Keep going.
You're getting there.
Two out of three so far, yay.
So slowly but surely you're getting there.
Now, read the highlighted above again.

I'll accept you majority on a binary question on Independence and only then

I think we all realise the route TM is heading us down under Brexit and by the time the negotiations are completed, we may see a vastly different position on Independence that we currently stand at.

TrickyTree83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The low teens is higher than I have been reading.
What is this based on?

The Telegraph showed an analysis of targetting 9 SNP seats and one Labour Seat

[URL="Analysis: How the Conservatives can take nine seats off the SNP at the 2017 General Election"]Analysis: How the Conservatives can take nine seats off the SNP at the 2017 General Election[/URL]

Of those 10 targetted seats (using recent polls), 70% are under 50% chance of winning.

They are targetting a further 7 more according to the article, however they have a lower calculated percentage chance of winning

Because of the trend against independence as an idea, the litany of SNP failures (always happens when in government, would happen with any other party too to be fair), the momentum that is with the Conservatives, the level of support in the council elections. All into a gut feeling that the Conservatives will be low teens and the SNP high 30's.

cogito

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Are you living in some sort of time warp where we've all been fast forwarded to after the Brexit talks ?

Any vote number, vote share or number of seats is irrelevant in 2017. That's because Scots voters at the current time do not have the full facts and are not fully informed on what Brexit terms the UK will leave on. Neither are they fully informed as yet as to the direction the current Scottish Govt and other interested pro-indepedence groups (assuming a Yes vote) want to take Scotland in the next few years.

This GE cannot be a referendum or a judgement call on independence, for the simple reason that Scottish voters are not fully informed and not aware of the short term consequences of either Brexit nor independence and won't be until 2019. Now May can huff and puff and so can you about appetites for independence in 2017, but you cannot predict what kind of appetite there will be in 2019. Nor can you use the results of a GE held a full two years beforehand as any sort of binding judgement.

Sure once Brexit talks are over with and the SNP and various Yes groups have released all their white papers, reports and commissions in support of independence.. then make a judgement. But it's definitely not one that can be made now. The facts aren't clear yet. Once they are then fill your boots.

Come again. Am I missing something or did Sturgeon not say many times that she wanted a referendum in 2018, i.e. before Brexit terms are known?