If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

antrobus wrote: »

There is no two year transition period as such.


What there is, is a two year guillotine, once a nation has notified the EU of its intention to leave. You give the EU notice, and two years later the treaties will cease to apply. Unless otherwise agreed.



Which rather concentrates the mind if you are trying to negotiate (or in this case renegotiate) a trade agreement. It took about six years worth of negotiation to agree on CETA. Two years isn't very long. With the guillotine in place, I would hazard a guess that UK negotiators may well be incentivised to agree to 'no change' in respect of oodles of issues just to meet the timetable.

The word Guillotine does not appear in the documentation. The two years start when a country FORMALLY asks to withdraw.
I don't remember the exact words but it is something like 2 years or longer if agreed by both party's. There would be no economic reason for one side or the other to unilaterally halt negotiations.
Although who knows what the Political landscape will be like in mid 2018.

michaels

gfplux wrote: »

I think you miss my point. Those questions I and others pose are addressed to the Politiciens in the out camp. I am fully aware that the Government with their "leap in the dark" phrasing of the debate will not answer. However we should expect those urging out to have some of the answers.
Further the 2 or more years will be very busy after Brexit for our civil servants and Politiciens. Will they remember or have the time or even care about things like subsidies, mobile phone roaming charges and the 1000's of other things that might matter to you and me but not to Westminster.

'Cos after all the only option for roaming without EU intervention is to use your normal sim and pay exhorbitant rates...except that some operators offer free/cheap roaming in many non-eu countries and there is an easy alternative of getting a third party sim that offers cheap calls world wide. Funnily enough the market can provide a solution for those not too lazy to expect politicians to solve all their problems for them with endless regulations.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

There is plainly some danger of what may be a small sell-off turning into a rout. Given the still fragile state of the economy, the last thing the Bank of England wants to do is to have to jack up interest rates to defend the currency and prevent inflation getting out of hand. The economic damage were this chain of events to play out would be considerable, plunging Britain back into recession and causing asset prices to plummet. Over-borrowed households and businesses would struggle to remain afloat.

Britain’s large current account deficit needs to be constantly fed with inflows of foreign capital, and therefore makes the economy particularly vulnerable to any sudden loss of confidence. Justified or not, just talking about a possible Brexit could trigger just such a loss. Britain’s current prosperity, such as it is, hangs on a weak and slender thread.

You're attitude seems flippant so I guess that's what you want ???

If I were a currency trader (I am not) I would be selling Pounds and watching the man in the street surveys. However it's not over until it's over and the pound can only be weak while we count down the months, weeks and hours to the referendum.

On a purely personal note I am often a seller of pounds for purely domestic reasons and I will be sitting on my hands until there is a IN win.
If the result is a Brexit vote the pound will fall badly. Like all things it will recover over time but in the mean time there will be some very expensive Holidays in the USA, Europe and of course in the rest of the world.

gfplux

prosaver wrote: »

Im trying to say, The in brigade, people are worried about our trade with the EU right? but we buy more stuff of germany "billions worth", and the EU , billions again than they buy of us, we are the customers, the buyers, so who do you think holds the cards?
do you really think they are going to be funny about us if we leave . They need our cash , wake up ...or are you just trolling me..must be...

While not wanting to get into the rights and wrongs of the numbers.
The present fall in sterling will make all those imports MORE expensive. That might result in a fall in demand. As an example if demands falls by 5% but Sterling falls by 6% the "numbers" will show a growth of imports by 1%
In the reverse an increase in demand for UK products (cheaper because weak sterling) could actually result in an apparant fall.
Add in currency being covered by both exporters and importers these changes work through a long time after the event.

Caveat, presently suffering from man flue so please don't flame me if my logic is off

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Do you mean the Ford who have major investments in engine manufacture in the UK or GM who assemble cars here?

Vehicle engineering is a UK speciality.

Where do the components originate from?

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

I think you miss my point. Those questions I and others pose are addressed to the Politiciens in the out camp. I am fully aware that the Government with their "leap in the dark" phrasing of the debate will not answer. However we should expect those urging out to have some of the answers.
Further the 2 or more years will be very busy after Brexit for our civil servants and Politiciens. Will they remember or have the time or even care about things like subsidies, mobile phone roaming charges and the 1000's of other things that might matter to you and me but not to Westminster.

Your points (repeatedly) are simply and solely EU propaganda.
Every single post is pro - EU dribble.
Faux lists of points that are self evidently pro EU transparent nonsense.

The government after the referendum will be the present one who will not answer unanswerable questions.

Any competent administrator can solve a vast number of the issues easily, many don't amount to much and all the important ones will be resolved.

If you want a challenge then tell us EXACTLY what will happen if we stay in the EU with regard to the migration crisis over the next 5 years;
clearly if you can't answer an important question like that then surely the safest path is to exit.

gfplux

michaels wrote: »

'Cos after all the only option for roaming without EU intervention is to use your normal sim and pay exhorbitant rates...except that some operators offer free/cheap roaming in many non-eu countries and there is an easy alternative of getting a third party sim that offers cheap calls world wide. Funnily enough the market can provide a solution for those not too lazy to expect politicians to solve all their problems for them with endless regulations.

Thanks for that.
Oh, by the way, like your signature.

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

Your points (repeatedly) are simply and solely EU propaganda.
Every single post is pro - EU dribble.
Faux lists of points that are self evidently pro EU transparent nonsense.

The government after the referendum will be the present one who will not answer unanswerable questions.

Any competent administrator can solve a vast number of the issues easily, many don't amount to much and all the important ones will be resolved.

If you want a challenge then tell us EXACTLY what will happen if we stay in the EU with regard to the migration crisis over the next 5 years;
clearly if you can't answer an important question like that then surely the safest path is to exit.

Challenge duly taken up.
Question - EXACTLY what will happen if we stay in the EU with regard to the migration crisis over the next 5 years.
Answer - EXACTLY the same that has happened over the last 5 years.

Here's one for you -
Question - EXACTLY what will happen if we BREXIT with regard to the migration crisis over the next 5 years.
Answer - ?

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Challenge duly taken up.
Question - EXACTLY what will happen if we stay in the EU with regard to the migration crisis over the next 5 years.
Answer - EXACTLY the same that has happened over the last 5 years.

Here's one for you -
Question - EXACTLY what will happen if we BREXIT with regard to the migration crisis over the next 5 years.
Answer - ?

The Uk doesn't have a migration crisis so it will continue EXACTLY as now.
There will be changes to the EU free movement of people but that is another topic.

mayonnaise

A refugee will have as much/as little right to come to the UK after brexit as they have now.
Oh yes, I know: "They're all gonna get German passports and come our way!!"
Well what are you going to do post brexit? Refuse entry to all German passport holders....or just the brown ones? :rotfl:
The utter idiocy of the europhobes is staggering.