If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Reality Check BBC

Treaty change or new laws?

A bit of background from the Reality Check team on the argument about whether the European Court of Justice is legally bound by the EU agreement with the UK.
First of all, the court can't rule of its own accord - it can only do so if there is a challenge by a third party.
Secondly, the process for getting different bits of the agreement through will vary. Some changes will be quicker, some will take longer.
For example, to exempt the UK from “ever closer union”, a treaty change will be required. EU Treaty changes take a very long time. Last time it took almost 10 years.
On the other hand, to change the legislation on child benefit will take a lot less time because an ordinary legislative procedure will be needed. In other words, a new regulation or a new directive will be agreed which will be part of the EU law.

antrobus

prosaver wrote: »

shouldnt get your data of the BBC, telegraph too, they are bias for " the stay in" campaign and its old data.:)...

It looks like our exports to the EU were worth £230 bn in 2014, whilst our imports were worth £289 bn, a £59bn deficit. That's not a lot different from the numbers of £227 bn and £288 bn, quoted by setmefree2.

See the House of Commons Briefing paper Number 06091, 19 January 2016 on UK-EU economic relations.

www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06091.pdf

prosaver wrote: »

...I think we have the upper hand on germany " 2 billion" agreee?
cant find other EU countries maybe you could for this month im knacked..
more info on real up to date stats
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

So the overall trade deficit was £3.6 bn in December 2015. What of it?

Perhaps you cited the wrong link. Perhaps you meant this one?
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

The UK had a trade deficit of £6.6 bn with the EU in December 2015. This appears to have been a £0.2 bn improvement on the position in December 2014.

What does that prove? What are you trying to say?

CLAPTON

setmefree2 wrote: »

There is plainly some danger of what may be a small sell-off turning into a rout. Given the still fragile state of the economy, the last thing the Bank of England wants to do is to have to jack up interest rates to defend the currency and prevent inflation getting out of hand. The economic damage were this chain of events to play out would be considerable, plunging Britain back into recession and causing asset prices to plummet. Over-borrowed households and businesses would struggle to remain afloat.

Britain’s large current account deficit needs to be constantly fed with inflows of foreign capital, and therefore makes the economy particularly vulnerable to any sudden loss of confidence. Justified or not, a possible Brexit could trigger just such a loss. Britain’s current prosperity, such as it is, hangs on a weak and slender thread.

You're attitude seems flippant so I guess that's what you want ???

What 'rout' are you expecting?
What effect will it have and on whom?
A decline in the value of the pound? : has that never happened before .. I seem to remember the pound was one-one with the Euro only a short time ago.

Spell out what dreadful things will happen.

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

It seems to me that the views and reputations of anyone intelligent must be trashed to sway voters to vote Leave.

It was to be expected that the in/out 'debate' would go this way.
Anyone providing plain facts or showing any sign of intelligence is swiftly dismissed as elitist and out of touch.
On the other hand, populist demagogues' and foppish politicians' one-liners are accepted as the gospel.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

It was to be expected that the in/out 'debate' would go this way.
Anyone providing plain facts or showing any sign of intelligence is swiftly dismissed as elitist and out of touch.
On the other hand, populist demagogues' and foppish politicians' one-liners are accepted as the gospel.

gosh

two totally committed EU stayers agreeing with each other that they are more intelligent that everyone else.
no actual arguments but that isn't important for the acolytes

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

..
Anyone providing plain facts or showing any sign of intelligence is swiftly dismissed as elitist and out of touch.
...

Well, if it works I expect politicians to use it. Going by the recent Scottish indy ref there was frequent claim that Westminster government was elitist and out of touch.

So there is recent form ... !

antrobus

mayonnaise wrote: »

...Anyone providing plain facts or showing any sign of intelligence is swiftly dismissed as elitist and out of touch.....

I shall continue to do my best to provide the "plain facts". Whether or not I display any "sign of intelligence" in so doing is a matter of opinion I suppose. It doesn't bother me at all if someone considers that to be elitist or whatever.:)

prosaver

antrobus wrote: »

It looks like our exports to the EU were worth £230 bn in 2014, whilst our imports were worth £289 bn, a £59bn deficit. That's not a lot different from the numbers of £227 bn and £288 bn, quoted by setmefree2.

See the House of Commons Briefing paper Number 06091, 19 January 2016 on UK-EU economic relations.

www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06091.pdf



So the overall trade deficit was £3.6 bn in December 2015. What of it?

Perhaps you cited the wrong link. Perhaps you meant this one?
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

The UK had a trade deficit of £6.6 bn with the EU in December 2015. This appears to have been a £0.2 bn improvement on the position in December 2014.

What does that prove? What are you trying to say?

Im trying to say, The in brigade, people are worried about our trade with the EU right? but we buy more stuff of germany "billions worth", and the EU , billions again than they buy of us, we are the customers, the buyers, so who do you think holds the cards?
do you really think they are going to be funny about us if we leave . They need our cash , wake up ...or are you just trolling me..must be...

wotsthat

wymondham wrote: »

so this is the information we have to make an informed choice....

In terms of legally binding yes. As it means very little and both Cameron and Gove are correct in their interpretations of legally binding I don't see why anyone is making a big deal about it either way. Surely it's the least substantive of reasons to vote to leave or stay especially when almost everyone arguing about it hasn't actually taken the time to read what it is that's meant to be legally binding (or not) in the first place.

That's on top of the fact that the agreement, to my mind, contains very little that is going to persuade anyone who has already made up their mind.

..and who hasn't made up their mind after after a generation spent in the EU. Come on; there are very few people really looking for impartial sources of information - they've already decided. I knew how I'd vote before a referendum was even mooted and I'm almost certain I know how you'll be voting too.

We may as well vote tomorrow.

setmefree2