If we vote for Brexit what happens

antrobus

setmefree2 wrote: »

Reality Check: Business arguments on EU referendum

Right in cash terms. In 2014 we exported £227bn worth of goods and services to other EU countries, and imported £288bn from them. Of course, as a share of total exports, it looks much less important to the rest of the EU - it's about 45% of our exports, but less than 10% of theirs.

That's the fundamentally important point. It almost doesn't matter what the number is for the balance of UK-EU trade; what matters is that the EU economy (sans UK) is about five times the size of the UK economy, so whatever losses arise as a result of a disruption to that trade, will hurt us five times more than it hurts the EU.

CLAPTON

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2429af50-daaf-11e5-a72f-1e7744c66818.html#axzz415HPqeTk

I can't recall a time when economists weren't worried

setmefree2

prosaver wrote: »

shouldnt get your data of the BBC, telegraph too, they are bias for " the stay in" campaign and its old data.

Yes I should only absorb information from UKIP because everyone else is lying:cool:

It seems to me that the views and reputations of anyone intelligent must be trashed to sway voters to vote Leave.

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

That's the fundamentally important point. It almost doesn't matter what the number is for the balance of UK-EU trade; what matters is that the EU economy (sans UK) is about five times the size of the UK economy, so whatever losses arise as a result of a disruption to that trade, will hurt us five times more than it hurts the EU.

clearly that is NOT the case.

as yet the EU economy is NOT a common economy with the wealth of Germany equally spread across all the 28 countries.

different bits will hurt in different ways.

any disruption of trade will be self inflicted by the EU and so is a political decision to self harm.

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

... There will be a substantial transition period of 2 years to get the brexit rules and regulations in place.

There is no two year transition period as such.


What there is, is a two year guillotine, once a nation has notified the EU of its intention to leave. You give the EU notice, and two years later the treaties will cease to apply. Unless otherwise agreed.



Which rather concentrates the mind if you are trying to negotiate (or in this case renegotiate) a trade agreement. It took about six years worth of negotiation to agree on CETA. Two years isn't very long. With the guillotine in place, I would hazard a guess that UK negotiators may well be incentivised to agree to 'no change' in respect of oodles of issues just to meet the timetable.

prosaver

setmefree2 wrote: »

Yes I should only absorb information from UKIP because everyone is lying:cool:

silly...
not from;
papers tvs political group businesssgroup etc
be like me official up to date stuff.. And you wont get brainwashed
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx
:beer:

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

... as yet the EU economy is NOT a common economy with the wealth of Germany equally spread across all the 28 countries.... .

By that same argument, the UK economy is NOT a common economy with the wealth of the South-East equally spread across all the regions.

prosaver

wow, bring it on,
who's in charge ??

• Non-EU Exports for December 2015 are £17.1 billion. This is an increase of £3.1 billion (22 per cent) compared with last month and an increase of £3.0 billion (22 per cent) compared with December 2014.
• Non-EU Imports for December 2015 are £14.0 billion. This is a decrease of £1.8 billion (11 per cent) compared with last month, and a decrease of £2.8 billion (17 per cent) compared with December 2014.
• In Non-EU trade the UK is a net exporter this month, with exports exceeding imports by £3.0 billion.
• EU Exports for December 2015 are £10.4 billion. This is a decrease of £1.0 billion (8.8 per cent) compared with last month, and a fall of £0.9 billion (7.7 per cent) compared with December 2014.
• EU Imports for December 2015 are £17.0 billion. This is a decrease of £2.3 billion (12 per cent) compared with last month, and a fall of £1.1 billion (6.3 per cent) compared with December 2014.
• In EU trade the UK is a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £6.6 billion.
• The proportion of total exports to the EU is 38 per cent in December 2015. Over the past 18 months, this has ranged from 38 per cent to 49 per cent. The proportion of total imports from the EU is 55 per cent in December 2015. Over the same period, this has ranged between 49 per cent and 55 per cent.

what are we suppose to be worried about, again?
do want a graph to make it easier for you too understand (see I can play too)

setmefree2

CLAPTON wrote: »

I can't recall a time when economists weren't worried

There is plainly some danger of what may be a small sell-off turning into a rout. Given the still fragile state of the economy, the last thing the Bank of England wants to do is to have to jack up interest rates to defend the currency and prevent inflation getting out of hand. The economic damage were this chain of events to play out would be considerable, plunging Britain back into recession and causing asset prices to plummet. Over-borrowed households and businesses would struggle to remain afloat.

Britain’s large current account deficit needs to be constantly fed with inflows of foreign capital, and therefore makes the economy particularly vulnerable to any sudden loss of confidence. Justified or not, just talking about a possible Brexit could trigger just such a loss. Britain’s current prosperity, such as it is, hangs on a weak and slender thread.

You're attitude seems flippant so I guess that's what you want ???

prosaver

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XPrI03x9vY

a graph...