If we vote for Brexit what happens

Kohoutek

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's not though is it, or Switzerland and Norway would be in the EU. Clearly there is a difference, a beneficial one too.

If there was a clear beneficial difference presumably you'd be able to name it.

The reason Switzerland and Norway are not in the EU is simply because there is no political consensus to join the EU in those two countries.

Crashy_Time

nubbins wrote: »

"He argued that estate agents are not seeing enough properties come to market because people are put off by the costs of moving."

As the comments above, more upwards pressure imo

No, just a stalled market where the property moves people hoped to make in retirement (windfall from the house and downsize) don`t materialise.

Rinoa

Who needs the EU

One of Britain's biggest car makers is planning an export boom outside Europe after Brexit as it seeks to boost profits from the US and Canada.
Honda announced the plan to reduce its dependence on the Continent as it unveiled its new five-door Civic family hatchback – the 10th generation of this popular model – with its Swindon factory as the global production hub.
The new strategy means the proportion of Honda cars exported from the UK to the world beyond Europe will soar four-fold, from just 10 per cent to 40 per cent of production.


In a ringing endorsement of the UK economy post-Brexit, the Japanese boss of Honda in Europe says the car maker is firmly committed to building its vehicles in Britain and exporting them to the wider world.
Katsushi Inoue, Honda Europe's president and chief operating officer, said: 'The launch of this new model is very significant for the European region, not just because of the improvements made in the product, but also what it means for this factory here in the UK.
'The strategy of transforming Swindon into a global production hub was our plan regardless of Brexit.
'It was the plan before the vote in June and it remains our plan after the Brexit vote. There's no change.'


Honda is investing £200million to build the new Civic in Swindon, taking its total investment to £2.2billion as 'part of a long-term vision for the plant in Honda's global operations'.
M r Inoue promised a 'clear and sustainable future role' for the factory as it broadens its export markets and horizons beyond Europe towards other growing areas, such as North America, Australia and South Africa.
A new Civic will come off the line at Swindon every 69 seconds, with about 800 vehicles produced per day – nearly half of which will go to America as part of the new post-Brexit export blitz.
Swindon, which manufactured its first engine in 1989 and first car three years later, also builds the Civic Type-R and Tourer.
Its CR-V off-roader will be phased out by 2018 as Civic production cranks up.
Honda has taken on 600 more employees to build the new hatchback, taking the total workforce to about 3,600.
Currently 40 per cent of cars built there are sold in the UK, 50 per cent exported to Europe and 10 per cent to the rest of the world. Now it forecasts that 20 per cent will be sold in the UK, 40 per cent exported to the Continent and 40 per cent to the rest of the world, mainly North America.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3791684/Built-Britain-car-conquer-America-Brexit-boost-Honda-makes-UK-global-hub.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

lisyloo

nubbins wrote: »

"He argued that estate agents are not seeing enough properties come to market because people are put off by the costs of moving."

As the comments above, more upwards pressure imo

I'm not sure who he is and which estate agents are refferred to but I can't see any sustained drop off in transactions can you?

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/546256/UK_Tables_Aug_2016__cir_.pdf

It's quite possible that traditional estate agents are losing market share to those who chose to use cheaper services on the Internet.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

No, just a stalled market where the property moves people hoped to make in retirement (windfall from the house and downsize) don`t materialise.

Can you provide any evidence of this or just another made up statement from you? All the articles you have linked to recently seem to be saying there's a shortage of properties coming on to the market which would appear to contradict the notion of retired people being unable to sell...

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Every racist voted for brexit did they? Where's the evidence for that claim?

Do you really need evidence before you'll accept that racists were much more likely to vote leave? Come on, better to dissociate yourself from some of your fellow travellers than turn a blind eye.

The blind eye just takes you into a cul-de-sac of BS where you start believing it's a hatred of black African farmers that made the pro EU elites vote remain.

Pity really because I don't think anyone thinks you're a racist so why play Devils advocate?

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

Who needs the EU

Looks like great news. Good on Honda, they were planning on doing this already, when trade arrangements were known, so to do it now is brave given the uncertainty.

Of course most of the cost is already sunk so they may as well stump up £200m and try and make it work rather than walk away from the £2bn they've already spent. It'll be interesting over time to see how much money gets invested in new facilities rather than sweating existing assets.

TrickyTree83

mwpt wrote: »

TrickyTree83 will shortly explain to you that it is too early to extrapolate from any reports.

Nevertheless, you might want to consider:
- GBP devalued.
- Markets in immediately turmoil in the aftermath of Brexit, big hit to confidence and uncertainty.

Then:
- All the leave politicians looking dumbfounded and scattering.
- Noises coming out from central bank that they'll do anything to stablise things.
- Sudden sentiment that brexit might still mean access to single market and passporting.
- Carney prints money and sloshes it into the system.
- Carney lowers interest rates.
- We still haven't done anything and it's looking touch and go whether we'll get so called "hard brexit" or not.

I don't think it's that much of a surprise that things are kind of steady.

My prediction:
We'll slowly start to see the results of stalled onward investment. It won't be a big bang crash. Things will trundle along and politicians and central bankers will do everything they can to soothe the market at each stage. We'll probably get more QE but I'm uncertain about lower rates again. I feel they're making those noises to placate the market still but will wait on the economic indicators to pull the trigger. Then finally, if what emerges from the triggering of A50 is a hard brexit, we'll see a further downturn and more QE and further rate slashing. If brexit means (even an interim) strategy of joining the single market under some other plan (as advocated on the blog I posted recently) then we'll see an immediate boost to financial markets and a gradual boost to the economy.

You are correct.

We can try to extrapolate indications of trend from the information we have over a limited period of time but it will be riddled with inconsistency. Did anyone expect the PMI figures to rebound after the initial PMI figures showed 'the sharpest drop in years'? Which kind of explains my point.

Once we reach the end of September and figures come out in October/November for the previous 3 months we'll have a much better indication of the impact of the vote on the economy. Not perfect, but certainly better than what we currently have. That prediction picture will improve as time marches on, when we build up 6 months of data, then financial year end data, etc...

TrickyTree83

Kohoutek wrote: »

If there was a clear beneficial difference presumably you'd be able to name it.

The reason Switzerland and Norway are not in the EU is simply because there is no political consensus to join the EU in those two countries.

I just can't be bothered to be your personal researcher, that's all. Did you not ask yourself before casting your vote why these two countries, outside the EU but trading freely with the single market enjoy far greater economic success per person than the UK?

So now that there is political consensus in the UK to not be in the EU do you not think we should aim to adopt a similar position to these two countries?

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

Do you really need evidence before you'll accept that racists were much more likely to vote leave? Come on, better to dissociate yourself from some of your fellow travellers than turn a blind eye.

The blind eye just takes you into a cul-de-sac of BS where you start believing it's a hatred of black African farmers that made the pro EU elites vote remain.

Pity really because I don't think anyone thinks you're a racist so why play Devils advocate?

Every racist voted leave was the claim.

Racists being more likely to vote leave is a completely different statement.

The reason to play the devils advocate role is to make people aware that statements such as "All racists voted to leave the EU" is incorrect. There is no evidence to show a quantifiable amount of people classified and recognised as racists as a whole (100% of them) voted to leave the EU. There is no identifiable cohort of people in the UK recognised as racists.

It's just easy mud to sling.

I'm not defending racism, clearly, I'm just pointing out the lack of veracity in such claims.

If a census was taken and everyone was 100% truthful on the census about being a racist, and those people were then 100% truthful on the way they voted in the EU referendum, then you may be able to claim 'Every racist voted to leave the EU' and by association demean the people who voted to leave the EU who are not racist by suggesting they keep bad company.