If we vote for Brexit what happens

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver wrote: »

You mean the ones who have seen house prices grow by 8%, 7% and 5% over the last three years and where the forecasts are for prices to keep increasing over the next five years too? They must be quaking in their boots! :rotfl:

Of course everything is great in the UK economy, and while the media tell us that 1/3 of people are one pay check from disaster according to some the other 2/3rds are rolling in it! Or maybe not........


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/john-lewis-posts-75-profit-slump-a7308361.html

mwpt

Conrad wrote: »

By johnredwood | Published: September 15, 2016

Before the referendum campaign Remain advocates told us the uncertainty generated by the referendum vote would hit our economy. It didn’t. During the referendum campaign proper, the Remain campaign aided by the Treasury and the Bank of England, the IMF and many investment banks, told us the economy would be badly damaged by the vote if it went the “wrong” way. They said there would be short term damage from the shock to confidence. There wasn’t.

So what are these unsuccessful forecasters saying now? Some of them are busily revising up their forecasts for 2016-17 for the UK, though still believing there will be a slowdown. Most have cancelled any thoughts of recession. Now they tell us what they meant all along was it would be the sending of the Article 50 letter that brings on the bad news.

Why so? Surely markets have discounted the sending of the letter by now, as the government has made clear it does intend to implement the views of the people, just as the previous government made it clear it was the duty of Parliament and government to carry out the decision of the voters. Why is sending a letter more of a shock than the UK voters deciding?

I guess they will go on telling us there is some new milestone in our exit which will trigger the bad news they forecast and seem to crave. If you wait long enough there might be bad news for some unrelated reason which they could doubtless cling on to.

TrickyTree83 will shortly explain to you that it is too early to extrapolate from any reports.

Nevertheless, you might want to consider:
- GBP devalued.
- Markets in immediately turmoil in the aftermath of Brexit, big hit to confidence and uncertainty.

Then:
- All the leave politicians looking dumbfounded and scattering.
- Noises coming out from central bank that they'll do anything to stablise things.
- Sudden sentiment that brexit might still mean access to single market and passporting.
- Carney prints money and sloshes it into the system.
- Carney lowers interest rates.
- We still haven't done anything and it's looking touch and go whether we'll get so called "hard brexit" or not.

I don't think it's that much of a surprise that things are kind of steady.

My prediction:
We'll slowly start to see the results of stalled onward investment. It won't be a big bang crash. Things will trundle along and politicians and central bankers will do everything they can to soothe the market at each stage. We'll probably get more QE but I'm uncertain about lower rates again. I feel they're making those noises to placate the market still but will wait on the economic indicators to pull the trigger. Then finally, if what emerges from the triggering of A50 is a hard brexit, we'll see a further downturn and more QE and further rate slashing. If brexit means (even an interim) strategy of joining the single market under some other plan (as advocated on the blog I posted recently) then we'll see an immediate boost to financial markets and a gradual boost to the economy.

leveller2911

mayonnaise wrote: »

Have some respect, a man died.

Britain in 2016.

Polish people being beaten up and stamped to death on our streets, Polish cultural centres smeared with vile graffiti. Polish shop windows smashed. Kristallnacht comes to mind.

You do realise that racism and xenophobia is prevalent in all European countries if you bother to look.........

It took me less than 2 minutes to find the following example.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/german-jailed-for-11-years-over-murder-of-british-expat-luke-hol/


Its wrong wherever it happends and its no worse in the UK than Germany or France.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I don't think it's that much of a surprise that things are kind of steady.

how true
everyone and their dog were predicting exactly that.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Of course everything is great in the UK economy,

No, there will be a slowdown and many companies' profits will be hit.

Fundamentally though the population is increasing faster than we're creating homes and so over any significant time frame there's only one way that house prices are going...

Crashy_Time

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-tumble-by-a-third-in-england-and-by-almost-half-in-london/

MobileSaver

MobileSaver wrote: »

Fundamentally though the population is increasing faster than we're creating homes and so over any significant time frame there's only one way that house prices are going...

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-tumble-by-a-third-in-england-and-by-almost-half-in-london/

Thanks for confirming what I said! :rotfl:

Rising prices are being fuelled by the ongoing shortfall of properties on the market – there are simply not enough people selling or enough new homes being built to match demand.

Crashy_Time

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/fewer-dinner-party-landlords-as-private-rented-sector-becomes-more-professional/

jimbog

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/sales-tumble-by-a-third-in-england-and-by-almost-half-in-london/

"there are growing signs that the combination of low interest rates and buyer confidence is helping Britain’s property market to take much of the Brexit effect in its stride.”

As, for a Daily Mail link, well.....

nubbins

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/fewer-dinner-party-landlords-as-private-rented-sector-becomes-more-professional/

"He argued that estate agents are not seeing enough properties come to market because people are put off by the costs of moving."

As the comments above, more upwards pressure imo