If we vote for Brexit what happens

Kohoutek

Masomnia wrote: »

FWIW I agree with you.

I think that kind of arrangement based on trade rather than political union is in the interests of both sides. We saw yesterday Juncker wishing to press ahead with common defence, because it's clear that we're holding back the project. Much better for the EU and for us that we take a step back and come up with a settlement that fits both sides.

The UK already had an opt out from further political union in the EU.

I just don't get the advantage of this kind of deal vs staying in the EU. There are obvious big disadvantages, eg losing the ability to influence EU regulation while remaining the second largest economy in the single market and its financial centre.

buglawton

In the right corner we have:
Theresa May vows Brexit deal will limit migration whatever the impact on EU trade "Setting out her first red line...told her Cabinet that immigration controls were not negotiable..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/31/theresa-may-vows-to-make-controls-on-eu-migrants-a-red-line-duri/

And in the left corner we have:
Juncker's red line on free movement "...repeats the Commission's red line on the UK accepting free movement of persons in return for unfettered access to the Single Market..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/eu-facing-an-existential-threat-in-the-wake-of-brexit-jean-claud/

An absolute head-on smash coming up. Stock up on popcorn.

CLAPTON

buglawton wrote: »

In the right corner we have:
Theresa May vows Brexit deal will limit migration whatever the impact on EU trade "Setting out her first red line...told her Cabinet that immigration controls were not negotiable..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/31/theresa-may-vows-to-make-controls-on-eu-migrants-a-red-line-duri/

And in the left corner we have:
Juncker's red line on free movement "...repeats the Commission's red line on the UK accepting free movement of persons in return for unfettered access to the Single Market..."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/eu-facing-an-existential-threat-in-the-wake-of-brexit-jean-claud/

An absolute head-on smash coming up. Stock up on popcorn.

no reason to think that Juncher has any real power

stanz of the Eu will be decided by Germany, France and to a lesser extend the other 25

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CLAPTON wrote: »

no reason to think that Juncher has any real power

stanz of the Eu will be decided by Germany, France and to a lesser extend the other 25

Added to which, given that both of those (at least) may well be under new leadership by the time talking begins in earnest the stance of the EU may well be very different to that expressed currently.

Conrad

Kohoutek wrote: »

There are obvious big disadvantages, eg losing the ability to influence EU regulation while remaining the second largest economy in the single market and its financial centre.

Loosing influence bothers me not. Many nations export all over the world with no say on target market regulations.


We will take our own full seat at global rule setting bodies, which hand down to the EU anyway.


Financial Services will thrive even more with us as fully independent. Few will transfer into the hyper intrusive and now without us even more highly regulated EU. UK corporate taxes will be reduce soon, another benefit.


You cannot as a City trader just up-sticks to Frankfurt as you leave behind the huge beehive synergy of London, and more importantly you loose your face to face contacts network, the very thing from which you derive snippets of killer info.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

In Bratislava, Merkel says:

"We need solutions for Europe and we are in a critical situation,"

While Hollande says:

"Either we move in the direction of disintegration, of dilution, or we work together to inject new momentum, we relaunch the European project."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37380429

If these are examples of viewpoints suitable to be publicised, how trepidatious are deeper EU sentiments running?

Conrad

Hollande right there demonstrates what's wrong with the arrogant EU set, by just assuming he can call for more Europe without so much as asking a single French citizen whether this is ok.

cells

Conrad wrote: »

We are supreme wheeler dealers, just wait and see where we now take The Commonwealth that sits in China's backyard.


Your view of the UK is bound up with fear, impotence, ignorance, hysterics and a lack of imagination, and your kin will look very silly indeed quite soon.


How many fewer wine bottles would the French like to sell us do you think?


How would a hampering of trade and extended uncertainty aid the recovery in the EU?


Who will foot the bill and develop the infrastructure and training if we largely withdraw our military projection, and revert merely to NATO minimum requirements (News night on Tuesday showed we go way beyond minimum commitments)?

The UK won't become a third world country nor should you expect us to become a world power at the helm of a Commonwealth ship. Both an unrealistic

At most we are all arguing about a 5% difference in GDP over the next 10 years. Its not world changing but it is significant.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

We are supreme wheeler dealers, just wait and see where we now take The Commonwealth that sits in China's backyard.

The Commonwealth??? :rotfl:

Apart from the UK, only 3 countries in the Commonwealth with any economical clout. Canada, Australia and India.

Exports to these 3 combined (2010 figures) were smaller than our exports to.....Belgium.

Really Conrad, you should stick to flogging dodgy mortgages instead of seeking a career as motivational speaker. You do make me laugh though.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

Loosing influence bothers me not. Many nations export all over the world with no say on target market regulations.


We will take our own full seat at global rule setting bodies, which hand down to the EU anyway.


Financial Services will thrive even more with us as fully independent. Few will transfer into the hyper intrusive and now without us even more highly regulated EU. UK corporate taxes will be reduce soon, another benefit.


You cannot as a City trader just up-sticks to Frankfurt as you leave behind the huge beehive synergy of London, and more importantly you loose your face to face contacts network, the very thing from which you derive snippets of killer info.

Conrad, would you mind telling us where you live in the UK.