If we vote for Brexit what happens

cells

AFF8879 wrote: »

I also think given how crazily tight the US are with their borders (way before Trump), there is next to zero possibility to them being agreeable to such an option.

i'm not so sure, the fact we share the same language and are not far off in terms of wages should I think allow a far more tolerant and accepting migration from both sides.

Its also unlikely to impact USA population growth much. They are growing at about 2.5m a year there is no chance at all the UK could export anywhere close to that figure net to the USA. Likewise I dont think a huge number of Americans would come to the UK as they would take a ~30% pay cut and most goods cost more so its a double hit.

I do think there could be significant bi-directional flow though. Maybe 0.2 million each way for a few years until there are a million Americans in the UK and a million brits in the USA

For the individual it would probably be a great thing to have the freedom of movement, however nationally it might be a big risk to the UK if its young decide to leave en mass to the 'new world'

Crashy_Time

buglawton wrote: »

Since we're all speaking in secret code, here's the plain English: Brexit sparks overseas spending spree in London property (video)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-37260267

With one agent claiming a tenfold increase in foreign buyer interest.
And foreign buyers are now wising up to the UK's wonky stamp duty and may be changing their buying strategies. Namely, ignoring overpriced vanity developments.

All as I predicted months ago on MSE much to everyone else's incredulity.

They will need the foreign buyers, the locals are tapped out it seems....


http://hiring.careerbuilder.co.uk/news/almost-one-third-of-british-workers-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-careerbuilder.co.uk-survey-finds

Shakethedisease

CLAPTON wrote: »

clearly the EU has NOT created a single market which is tariff and non tariff free for all products and services:
it has created a market in which some products and services are tariff free although de facto non-tariff barriers exist.
Its regulation prevent new medicines being introduced that may well save huge number of lives and it standardisation and rules prevent new products from being introduced.

Trade agreements do not means that there is unrestricted free trade in all products and services.

I hope that the UK will be an example of a country with the maximum amount of free trade in due course.

Everyone just wants to know if it will be tariffs or no tariffs out of the EU whatever the deal. End of. How difficult can it be for someone from no 10 to say what's likely. They're all over the place.

vivatifosi

Regarding a potential trade deal with the USA. I heard a couple of months back that the UK was mooted as a member of NAFTA back in the 1990s so it isn't that far fetched.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2016/06/28/brexit-fix-add-uk-to-nafta.html

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Everyone just wants to know if it will be tariffs or no tariffs out of the EU whatever the deal. End of. How difficult can it be for someone from no 10 to say what's likely. They're all over the place.

what do you mean tariff or no tariffs?
between who and in what goods and services?
do you understand the current trading relationship between the whole world and the EU?

currently the people of scotland discriminate with tariffs and regulatory barriers with most countries in the world and apparently think that's wonderful and wish to maintain this discrimination and so continue to do harm to the people of scotland.

clearly the government of the UK or in deed anyone can't answer the question of what will be decided by the EU27 on any subject whatsoever.

glasgowdan

Or, worded another way, "more than two thirds of Brits have plenty spare cash each month".

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

What problems does Mr Juncker have? Are they problems for you, for Britain or for the EU.

I voted in but find Juncker unsuitable as a leader of the EU. He continues to fiddle while Brussels burns. He doesn't like the UK and favours the Franco German axis within the EU. Besides which he drinks too much and isn't up to the job.

Consider these two statements he made and reflect on how he balances the equal rights of the EU membership:

On the UK leaving the EU (said before Brexit):

Deserters will not be welcomed back.... the UK will have to get used to being a third party state.

On why France had repeatedly been given leeway on its budget deficits:

Because it's France.

Not very even handed.

There was a very long and fair assessment on Juncker written fir Politico just before the referendum. It's worth a read.

http://www.politico.eu/article/the-time-of-jean-claude-juncker-troubles-european-commission-president-investment-plan-travel-meetings-scheduled/

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

He himself has come across as rather militant, so problems for everyone really if an amicable solution is in the best interests of all parties but cannot be reached because of the punitive aims of the commission. Contagion could spread regardless of punishing the UK or not in negotiations. A bad deal which results in circumstances where trade between the UK and the EU is adversely affected will not just be bad for the UK will it?

One of Mr Junckers problems is he often speaks his mind and does not suffer fools gladly. This puts him at odds with many other politicians who never say what they mean. This might give you the WRONG impression he is rather militant.
He and all the rest of the EU want an agreement that is in the interests of the EU. That does not automatically mean an amicable solution. There has to be a solution but wether we will like it remains to be seen.
Hopefully a proper timeline will be announced by the British Government very soon. One thing we all agree on is we need to get on with it.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I would say Luxembourg and his personal involvement in the tax affairs of Amazon and similar companies while being PM and Finance Minister between 2003 -2013. Apple isn't the only Company in the EU's line of fire. Potentially very embarassing and will certainly undermine credibility. As I doubt the US Corporations are going to hold back either.

Like Eire. No sign of a united front. Behind closed doors national interests come very much first.

Mr Juncker is a seasoned politician and is not easily embarrassed. One of his assets is his ability to represent those Various national interests together.

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

One of Mr Junckers problems is he often speaks his mind and does not suffer fools gladly. This puts him at odds with many other politicians who never say what they mean. This might give you the WRONG impression he is rather militant.
He and all the rest of the EU want an agreement that is in the interests of the EU. That does not automatically mean an amicable solution. There has to be a solution but wether we will like it remains to be seen.
Hopefully a proper timeline will be announced by the British Government very soon. One thing we all agree on is we need to get on with it.

The best deal when negotiating free trade is always amicable to both. Otherwise there's a risk the deal doesn't get done. You're suggesting (my interpretation) the UK must accept whatever the EU puts on the table. We've got a stronger hand than that.

There will be concessions on both sides, without concession there's not really a negotiation. I think Junker will try to stand in the way of any concessions proposed by the EU though. Tusk and the others seem rather pragmatic about it all. Junker does not.