If we vote for Brexit what happens

wotsthat

mrginge wrote: »

ah yes that tried and tested strategy that worked so well for Dave and Gideon.

Quite different. I'd suggest Cameron underestimated how close the referendum would be and thought targets that were reasonably easy to achieve would suffice.

I don't see the issue with debating the governments targets to ensure they represent the 'will of the people' and, post negotiation, to assess their success. Saying they'll be punished, if they go badly, by losing power and entering into Tory wars about Europe doesn't seem that desirable. Just more unnecessary uncertainty.

You do realise the government are going to claim the negotiations have gone swimmingly whatever the outcome don't you? Wouldn't you rather know sooner rather than later if they're heading down the wrong track?

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Quite different. I'd suggest Cameron underestimated how close the referendum would be and thought targets that were reasonably easy to achieve would suffice.

Cameron was aware of the weakness in the remain argument. I'm sure he expected more "give" in his discussions with the EU. The lack of give was political. As there's key pillars that are fundamental in the minds architects of the EU. As long as they remain chained to the same ideals as from decades ago. The EU will continue to flounder. Living in ivory towers detached from the real world is going to be their downfall.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Cameron was aware of the weakness in the remain argument. I'm sure he expected more "give" in his discussions with the EU. The lack of give was political. As there's key pillars that are fundamental in the minds architects of the EU. As long as they remain chained to the same ideals as from decades ago. The EU will continue to flounder. Living in ivory towers detached from the real world is going to be their downfall.

'Key Pillars', 'Red Lines' etc. - all up for negotiation. Nothing lasts forever and anything that has been agreed can be 'unagreed'.

There's a rather defeatist attitude here. Don't forget 'they need us more than we need them', 'German car manufacturers won't allow politics to get in the way of sales'. A sweet deal was a given a few weeks ago - what happened?

wotsthat

DEFINING what Brexit actually means will only strengthen the forces of The Hun, Theresa May has warned.

Accusing those demanding greater clarity on the issue of ‘appeasement’, she insisted: “That is just what Fritz wants us to do.”

She said: “Now is the time to ‘keep mum’.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/war/revealing-brexit-plan-would-give-succour-to-our-german-foe-warns-may-20160906113392

setmefree2

Two banks cancel Brexit recession forecasts

Two leading City institutions have cancelled predictions of an EU referendum recession and revised their economic forecasts higher in response to better than expected economic surveys.
Economists from Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley lifted growth predictions for 2016 and 2017, removing the expectation of a recession, but they said the Brexit vote would still slow growth.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad13cdf6-7428-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a.html#axzz4JNzZmIBT

CLAPTON

a huge problem with the brexit is the large number of remainers and EU people who simply don't understand the concept that trade brings benefits (profit, money) to both partners in the trade.

another problem is even amoungst those that do understand the basics of the benefits of trade, many of those feel that EU elitist political objectives are more important than the wealthfare of EU citizens

as these people haven't understood the basics for over 40 years, its very unlikley they will master them in the next 2 years.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Whatever happens, it would be good for the UK if the EU did actually solve these problems and become enormously prosperous, even though we're leaving we should still work towards mutual benefit. Them getting their ducks in a row will help towards that.

Junker appears to be a problem though.

What problems does Mr Juncker have? Are they problems for you, for Britain or for the EU.

Shakethedisease

Rinoa wrote: »

You won't get any answers until the deals have been done.

For instance, we'd be stupid to state beforehand..... 'the single market is absolutely imperative to us' because the EU would then extract every conceivable condition before they granted us access.

To get the very best deal it's essential we don't give our negotiating stance away. Thankfully David Davis is smart enough to know this. Makes the government look as though they don't know what they want, but that can't be helped.

But the deals won't get done until Article 50 is triggered. Davies is saying one thing yesterday on the Single Market in front of parliament. The next No 10 is 'slapping him down' saying that leaving the Single Market isn't govt policy. He was in front of the dispatch box in the HOC yesterday inferring just that.

There's no negotiating stance to give away. No 10 don't have one.

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

What problems does Mr Juncker have? Are they problems for you, for Britain or for the EU.

He himself has come across as rather militant, so problems for everyone really if an amicable solution is in the best interests of all parties but cannot be reached because of the punitive aims of the commission. Contagion could spread regardless of punishing the UK or not in negotiations. A bad deal which results in circumstances where trade between the UK and the EU is adversely affected will not just be bad for the UK will it?

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

What problems does Mr Juncker have? Are they problems for you, for Britain or for the EU.

I would say Luxembourg and his personal involvement in the tax affairs of Amazon and similar companies while being PM and Finance Minister between 2003 -2013. Apple isn't the only Company in the EU's line of fire. Potentially very embarassing and will certainly undermine credibility. As I doubt the US Corporations are going to hold back either.

Like Eire. No sign of a united front. Behind closed doors national interests come very much first.