If we vote for Brexit what happens

mrginge

wotsthat wrote: »

There's no opposition worth talking about and most people couldn't name the leader of UKIP or the Lib Dems.

I can see the Tories picking up votes if they go for a pragmatic soft exit from remainers. And, let's face it, you'll be voting Tory in 2020 because you're owned - you have no choice.

The only chance of a leftist government in 2020 is if the Tories decide to oust May, conduct a damaging internal war, and install a hard Brexit leader. The Tories destroying themselves over Europe is Corbyn's dream.

i don't know, you keep making these assertions about me and so far your accuracy is 0%. Keep up the good work.

I can just see it now, all those SNP voters, all those sour-faced, miserable working classes who voted for change and ended up with nothing, all those labour voters who hate Jeremy so much they all suddenly decide that screwing the nhs even more is the way to go. All those hardened kippers, all those ex lib dems who were hoodwinked by DC in 2015....

You think 2020's in the bag just because Corbyn is a nut job? I suspect mrs May understands that brexit delivery is more about minimising losses for the tories rather than gaining new supporters.

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

She would have won the membership vote and would have become leader. However, May had the majority backing of MPs - so she would have been in the same position as Corbyn. For that reason, Leadsom decided to stand down.

So party where most of the members and most of the MP's are Eurosceptic get a leave campaigner as leader and she would've been a Tory equivalent of Corbyn. Come on - that must sound a bit silly?

setmefree2 wrote: »

No. Because the voters will get what they want. That's democracy.

Again, you're presuming to know what voters want. Yes, immigration is what got people vexed but you can't know what version of change will satisfy them. The other factor is that come 2020 it'll be the entire electorate deciding who will be in government not just the Brexiteers. The soft Brexit discussed would secure my vote for the Tories - a hard Brexit wouldn't. I reckon May will be leader in 2020 and will be able to count on the support of the faithful whatever version of Brexit is implemented.

I do think May is pretty canny and a skilled politician mind - a lot of her recent statements are probably no more than a 'running ideas up the flagpole' exercise and she'll harden up if she deems it necessary in the name of political expediency.

setmefree2 wrote: »

Permanent uncertainty.

Just Great.

How long were you expecting the period of uncertainty to last? A fully formed permanent immigration policy straight off the bat seems unlikely when such a policy is going to be impacted by exit and trade negotiations. Is is really a priority anyway?

This is going to take years - not months.

CKhalvashi

setmefree2 wrote: »

Permanent uncertainty.

It isn't permanent uncertainty though, is it?

It keeps things roughly how they are for the time being, whilst providing certainty whilst protections and changes are slowly made.

Many things here are going to be a case of dealing with everything one step at a time, whilst providing enough certainty to everyone in the process.

I'm personally not willing to back down on any change to FoM being done before the next election, as there is going to need to be at least limited movement for the businesses that are exporting and those that intend to do so.

My main priority is to safeguard my own interests. FoM is the best scenario by far for me personally. I'm willing to back down on this to a small extent, however if things become difficult, I will move.

I don't want to leave the UK permanently, however there is a 'paperwork to what I want' ratio, and it's not one I'm willing to break if the costs of dealing with permits etc do become too much.

I believe that a majority of Brits want FoM to continue, and I'm not going to back down on that view unless someone can show credible evidence otherwise. I also believe it's in the best of interests of the country, and again, unless credible evidence can be shown I won't back down on this view.

wotsthat

mrginge wrote: »

You think 2020's in the bag just because Corbyn is a nut job? I suspect mrs May understands that brexit delivery is more about minimising losses for the tories rather than gaining new supporters.

SNP support, IMO, peaked in 2015. Labour supporters had the 'vision' to vote in Ed Miliband and, just as we thought it wasn't possible to make a worse choice they then chose Corbyn (and may well do again).

UKIP are searching for a reason to be and working out how they stop being the Nigel Farage party. Lib Dems - enough said.

I don't think 2020 is in the bag but, come on, it's looking good isn't it? The Tories would have to go some to lose from this position.

buglawton

wotsthat wrote: »

Leadsom showed herself to be politically very naive and saved herself further embarrassment by standing down. The idea she put herself forward and then withdrew because she thought she might win sounds, I don't know, somewhat unlikely......

That she might have won a grassroots Tory membership vote is not so unlikely. Even the prospect of following the vote through would have meant the UK only had a token PM for months. Let's just say that 'a deal was done'.

gfplux

buglawton wrote: »

Most countries throughout the world have registration requirements for immigrants. In the UK, non-EU immigrants should register each address change until they receive citizenship. Pre 90s the police could and did turn up in individuals doorsteps to check if paperwork did not seem in order. I'm not sure if they've given up on this nowadays due to sheer numbers.

Additionally, many countries even require all citizens to register every address change promptly and in person with the local authority. I had to in Belgium and by law my employer had to grant half a day off for this.

What's glaringly missing in the UK is an identity document for every adult, common in most EU countries. All adds to the draw of the UK as a great destination for 'grey area' immigration.

I agree.
When my wife first came to live in London she "de registered" with the Authority's in Luxembourg and did not believe me when I told her she did not need to register in the UK. She visited the Police Station in Barnet to "register" a very kind policeman offered her tea and said I was correct.
I live in Luxembourg and I am required by law to register in my commune.
Many years ago coming from the UK I found this all a little intrusive but now except it as part of an orderly society. In addition the statistics used to provide efficient public services are very accurate.

ruggedtoast

The Left has worked out that it doesn't matter how you vote at the ballot box, you always get a neoliberal corporatist government.

It will be interesting to see what happens as it sinks in with the Right.

Sorry Brexiteers but you aren't going to get any kind of independence from the elites regardless of what Boris Johnson told you.

Vote Corbyn for change.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Vote Corbyn for change.

Oh and that post was doing so well up until that point.
:rotfl:

When even your own MP's won't vote for you, you should surely realise that SOMETHING is wrong?

Kohoutek

Well Davis has just spoken to the Commons. 99% rhetoric, platitudes and bluster.

Shakethedisease

wotsthat wrote: »

SNP support, IMO, peaked in 2015. Labour supporters had the 'vision' to vote in Ed Miliband and, just as we thought it wasn't possible to make a worse choice they then chose Corbyn (and may well do again).

UKIP are searching for a reason to be and working out how they stop being the Nigel Farage party. Lib Dems - enough said.

I don't think 2020 is in the bag but, come on, it's looking good isn't it? The Tories would have to go some to lose from this position.

Not sure about that ( today ).

Party with best approach to controlling immigration:
UKIP: 36%
CON: 34%
LAB: 22%
LDEM: 6%
SNP: 3%
(via Lord Ashcroft polls)

Nick Eardley ‏@nickeardleybbc 5h5 hours ago Farage says he'll re-enter UK political scene if no suitable Brexit movement by 2019

= Uncertainty

re SNP May 2016

At over a million, the SNP polled a record number of constituency votes – 1,059,897 to be precise. No party has ever done this before. The previous highest number was 908,392, polled by Labour in 1999.

In fact, the SNP polled more than Labour and the Tories put together. Collectively they polled 1,016,105 votes.

They did ok after a decade already in power.