If we vote for Brexit what happens

mrginge

mwpt wrote: »

If this is the model of brexit that our government pursues, then I think we will have found common ground for the majority of people in the UK.

Quite possibly. But a can-kicking exercise on immigration is a risky game to play.

*IF* the issue gets booted down the line for say five years and *IF* in those five years it's seen to have a substantial effect and *IF* the economy becomes even less reliant on the EU then it's got a chance.

Fabricate some fudged solution though and it won't be doing the tories much good come 2020. And if we end up with some halfarsed coalition of rampant left wingers it won't be doing any of us any good either.

However I've got no problem with what would effectively be an intermediate solution like this as long as we can retain a full-exit option and use that time effectively to mitigate.

But there are going to be a lot of unhappy leave voters still.

Indeed there are. The problem though is that there may also be quite a few unhappy voters in France, Germany, Holland ...etc

wotsthat

mrginge wrote: »

Fabricate some fudged solution though and it won't be doing the tories much good come 2020. And if we end up with some halfarsed coalition of rampant left wingers it won't be doing any of us any good either.

TBH I can't really see you, Rinoa, Conrad and Clapton voting for left wingers to punish the Tories for not being tougher on immigration.

If there's a pragmatic solution as described in the last few posts then I think quite a few remainers (if such a thing matters in 2020) will find that quite palatable and vote Tory too.

Things can change quickly in politics but, for now, the Tories own us.

System

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The Brexiteers don't appear to be getting much of anything they actually thought they were voting for....

A huge proportion don't care, the attitude seems to be as long as we leave the EU nothing else matters.

Bonkers.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We didn't need to worry about any of those things anyway.

We had a veto or exemption for all of them.

What we do now need to worry about is our loss of veto power within the EU for future changes to rules - even if we do stay fully in the single market we'll end up worse off than if we'd stayed a full member of the EU - because we can no longer influence policy.

But if that's the best we can now get then we'll just have to deal with it.

You don't have to be in a political union to have influence over the rules they make.

The EU will still have influence over the UK on the agreements and decisions we take and vice versa, since you don't want to go around making countries angry with you. But rather than one voice in 28 it'll be a third party voice, only we won't be forced to adopt what the 27 decide if we think it's no good for us. Like CFP, CAP, CET, etc...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You don't have to be in a political union to have influence over the rules they make.

It does help immensely to have a seat at the table, a vote, direct input into the rule setting, and a veto on many of the most important issues.

Frankly it's risible to suggest Britain will not have materially less influence over EU trade rules and regulations outside the EU than inside it.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It does help immensely to have a seat at the table, a vote, direct input into the rule setting, and a veto on many of the most important issues.

Frankly it's risible to suggest Britain will not have materially less influence over EU trade rules and regulations outside the EU than inside it.

It's a good thing I didn't say the same or more influence then isn't it.

Yes it'll be less, but that comes with the advantage of less consequences based on the outcome of discussions between 28 political equals who are in reality far from equal.

Crashy_Time

jimbog wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-37260267

All the way up as well it seems........:rotfl:

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

TBH I can't really see you, Rinoa, Conrad and Clapton voting for left wingers to punish the Tories for not being tougher on immigration.

If there's a pragmatic solution as described in the last few posts then I think quite a few remainers (if such a thing matters in 2020) will find that quite palatable and vote Tory too.

Things can change quickly in politics but, for now, the Tories own us.

Maybe, but May can be booted out quite easily

Thrugelmir

jack_pott wrote: »

We export 220bn to the EU and have a population of 65m, the EU exports 290bn and has a population of 443m, so our exports are £3380 per head of population, and theirs £655. We're 5 times more exposed to a trade war than they are.

What's the population got to do with anything. Only 5% of UK's companies even export to the Eurozone.

How many people from the UK take a holiday in Europe every year and how much do they spend. Very costly if there was to be a trade war. Yet the benefit to the UK of stayvacations would be enormous.

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well Theresa May has rejected the idea of a point based system for EU immigration yesterday.

And is now exploring both permit based and EU 'free movement light' with an emergency brake.

Given that May has been home secretary for 6 years you do wonder if she's up to the job of cutting migration? - if she doesn't, however, she will become unpopular with the public and will be knifed by her party and someone else put in her place, as she will become an electoral liability.....

....that's democracy in action...