If we vote for Brexit what happens

gadgetmind

CLAPTON wrote: »

I don't doubt that the major part of the fall in the UK is due to the brexit effect

Seems pretty clear to me given the sentiments expressed by the majority of business leaders post-referendum.

Lets see how things are in 6 months.

Agreed, this isn't going to play out quickly.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Sorry had to just skim through that. House prices are no longer related to the economy, that is the point you need to grasp, it is about central bank financial engineering. TBH you didn`t see the government landlord tax grab coming (many at HPC did) you didn`t see the Brexit coming (I and some others called it right) and you probably won`t predict the right course of action going forward either. You lucked out by buying property/BTL`s at the right time, an accident of your birth date not your economic savvy, and IMO you should have sold out some time ago to lock in all those London bubble gains as it will be too late when everyone else is running for the exits.

Of course house prices (falls) are linked to the economy, if people lose their jobs they won't be applying for/obtaining mortgages.

We've been through this before crashy, your opinion isn't worth anything, you sold and rented decades ago, and yet you have the cheek to criticise my timing. We have plenty of profit to play with, and also very decent rental income. No one should ever expect to buy at the bottom and sell right at the top, but this game isn't over yet, and in any case as far as providing well for retirement, the job is already done, even if Brexit turns out very badly, I'll still be quite a few million in front of you.

What is this rubbish about me being lucky enough to be the right age to invest in property at the right time, you too were also around at that time, so what stopped you?

Shakethedisease

The EU not quite on the brink of collapse just yet it seems.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2h2 hours ago EU referendum poll in (X): (Remain / Leave)

DEU: 61 / 24

FRA: 47 / 32

DNK: 55 / 35

SWE: 54 / 31

FIN: 50 / 30 (via YouGov / 20 - 27 Jul)

Alberto Nardelli ‏@AlbertoNardelli 1h1 hour ago Only 9% of Germans say UK should be given a free trade deal without right for EU citizens to live & work in Britain

Thrugelmir

gadgetmind wrote: »

Fair enough, two more links for you to ignore.

http://www.sharecast.com/news/uk-construction-output-drops-at-fastest-rate-since-2009/24766438.html

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/151586/uk-manufacturing-slump-post-brexit.aspx

For reference the US data just came out and their manufacturing indexes are still positive, so this is *not* global and is instead a self-inflicted wound.

Construction is planned months if not years in advance. Likewise manufacturing doesn't turn downwards instantly. There's been a slow down in the pipeline for some time now. Blaming all ills on Brext doesn't wash.

As for the US. Not all rosy......

US car shares fall on poor sales data

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36957435

gadgetmind

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Construction is planned months if not years in advance. Likewise manufacturing doesn't turn downwards instantly.

No, not usually, but the drop in UK-centric sentiment, investment, orders and project starts over the last few weeks has been sudden, dramatic, and "chilling".

It could all turn around but these things have a way of feeding on themselves.

We're trying to resource some projects now (customers outside UK, phew!) and recruitment is close to impossible. Unless we get a free movement deal, any technology business might as well shut up shop in the UK.

TrickyTree83

gadgetmind wrote: »

No, not usually, but the drop in UK-centric sentiment, investment, orders and project starts over the last few weeks has been sudden, dramatic, and "chilling".

It could all turn around but these things have a way of feeding on themselves.

We're trying to resource some projects now (customers outside UK, phew!) and recruitment is close to impossible. Unless we get a free movement deal, any technology business might as well shut up shop in the UK.

See that's odd because we're in innovation (particularly in software) in supply chain logistics, and it's not had any adverse impact on us, in fact we've just (after the brexit vote) agreed an investment deal from a firm in London. Don't know who or how much unfortunately.

We employ a team of over 20 domestically based developers, I think the only 'foreigner' is a guy from the Isle of Man.

It seems to me at least that you either have good business ideas or you don't. The business will usually (at least in our case) transcend borders. We're now in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, USA, Canada, Germany, Belgium, France, Ireland, etc... 500 members of staff domestically running a supply chain logistics firm in the UK developing the products and then selling the products and software we've developed to all these countries and major multi-national corporations such as DHL, UPS, HP, FedEx and major national corporations (monopolies?) such as LaPoste, BePost, NZPost, Walmart (US and Canada), etc...

gadgetmind

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

we've just (after the brexit vote) agreed an investment deal from a firm in London.

I managed to sell a company in October 2001 (yes!) so know how stressful it is to hold together such big deals when sentiment and the economy are heavily against you. Well done.

Don't know who or how much unfortunately.

Nor perhaps about all the random customisations and extensions, or the silly deadlines.

We employ a team of over 20 domestically based developers, I think the only 'foreigner' is a guy from the Isle of Man.

If you took me back 10 years, the same would be true of my team. We now rely on a global workforce as too few good engineers are available in the UK and demand is *heavy* to say the least.

Rinoa

New You Gov Brexit Poll

No buyers remorse. We still want out. :T

Samsonite1

Rinoa wrote: »

New You Gov Brexit Poll

No buyers remorse. We still want out. :T

Interesting maths.

System

chucknorris wrote: »

Of course house prices (falls) are linked to the economy, if people lose their jobs they won't be applying for/obtaining mortgages.

Small house prices falls are required over a period of time in order to increase discretionary income. This will lead to more employment being created in the real economy therefore creating growth. You can not have growth when you have a lack of consumer spending as this normally leads into recession. We need more jobs, real income, more production and retail trade etc.

We need to throw money at the real economy not the housing economy.