If we vote for Brexit what happens

gadgetmind

Carl31 wrote: »

6 weeks and the UK is getting written off

No, but let's just say that certain outcomes that were predictable and predicted are now starting to be seen clearly in objective data.

If you disagree, well kick off a big round of investment and hiring in your own engineering company to prove everyone else wrong.

Thats a bit like concreting over your garden because the roses you planted last week have yet to grow

It's more like being told that spraying weed killer on your roses will kill them and going ahead anyway because you think it's just scaremongering.

But again, if you think industry is getting things wrong, then lead by example. Inject some fresh cash, start a new project, do some fund raising, give everyone a pay rise, whatever you think is required.

CLAPTON

gadgetmind wrote: »

This is worth a read.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-aftermath-of-the-brexit-vote-a-verdict-from-those-of-those-experts-were-not-supposed-to-listen-to/

And this.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/chuka-umunna/vote-leave-watch-uk-economy_b_11294550.html

two known unqestioning remain bigots haven't changed their views

well amasing, not worth a read.

gadgetmind

Fair enough, two more links for you to ignore.

http://www.sharecast.com/news/uk-construction-output-drops-at-fastest-rate-since-2009/24766438.html

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/151586/uk-manufacturing-slump-post-brexit.aspx

For reference the US data just came out and their manufacturing indexes are still positive, so this is *not* global and is instead a self-inflicted wound.

bitsandpieces

Things seem to vary a lot from place to place. In Dundee, prices have been rising over the medium term, but nothing dramatic. There are currently a good few places in the area I'm interested in that have had price drops and are now on below home report value, but this had started to happen before the referendum (and we're talking drops of maybe 5-10% - so significant, but not precipitous).

CLAPTON

gadgetmind wrote: »

Fair enough, two more links for you to ignore.

http://www.sharecast.com/news/uk-construction-output-drops-at-fastest-rate-since-2009/24766438.html

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/151586/uk-manufacturing-slump-post-brexit.aspx

For reference the US data just came out and their manufacturing indexes are still positive, so this is *not* global and is instead a self-inflicted wound.

as I read it the USA index 'fell' but presumably this was a result of brexit

mrginge

I'm with chukka on this one. Who can possibly forget the economic apocalypse that came to pass the last time the PMI numbers were so low.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Of course crashes happen, only a fool would say that property prices always go up (or down), but here is the bit that I can't understand why others don't seem to comprehend:

House prices will occasionally correct, when they had previously been rising when the economy hits hard times. BUT when the economy recovers house prices will recover too.

It is almost as if some people aren't capable of seeing beyond the immediate situation that the economy is in, when prices are rising, they think it will last forever, and when they fall, they seem to think that's it 'game changer', but all it is, is a natural cycle.

Of course that is talking about nominal prices, 'real term' prices could be a different story, personally I think London prices might have reached an all time 'real term' high. In which case one might wonder why I haven't sold up, I have seriously thought about it. But the problem is where to put the equity? When house prices crash most other things will also crash too, you just can't escape that fact. Therefore I think it is better to forget focusing on capital values, and look at the income. This is why I will probably be selling in the next few years, because although shares are just as likely to fall as property, they are becoming more tax efficient than property (after the newly introduced property tax changes have been fully implemented). If London prices fall, which they may do, I will just wait a bit longer before eventually selling.

But I am of course talking about property investment, rather than buying your own home, I think buying your own home is a simple 'no brainer' (over the long run, unless lifestyle doesn't suit, something like working away on short contracts etc.). One thing that we do intend to do, is seriously upsize our home. We want to do this anyway, but as an aside, this would offset the effect of a small house price correction for us.

EDIT: There is an argument of course to get out of property now, before things change, and take a short term hit of lower income, right now I am considering that. The trouble with that is that I see prices dipping in the short term, due to Brexit.

Sorry had to just skim through that. House prices are no longer related to the economy, that is the point you need to grasp, it is about central bank financial engineering. TBH you didn`t see the government landlord tax grab coming (many at HPC did) you didn`t see the Brexit coming (I and some others called it right) and you probably won`t predict the right course of action going forward either. You lucked out by buying property/BTL`s at the right time, an accident of your birth date not your economic savvy, and IMO you should have sold out some time ago to lock in all those London bubble gains as it will be too late when everyone else is running for the exits.

Crashy_Time

bitsandpieces wrote: »

Things seem to vary a lot from place to place. In Dundee, prices have been rising over the medium term, but nothing dramatic. There are currently a good few places in the area I'm interested in that have had price drops and are now on below home report value, but this had started to happen before the referendum (and we're talking drops of maybe 5-10% - so significant, but not precipitous).

We haven`t even triggered our official exit clause yet, just think of how things will get when that happens? Anyone with a big mortgage should have been over-paying all the way through the emergency rate period, and anyone thinking of buying, IMO, needs to proceed carefully.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

We haven`t even triggered our official exit clause yet, just think of how things will get when that happens? Anyone with a big mortgage should have been over-paying all the way through the emergency rate period, and anyone thinking of buying, IMO, needs to proceed carefully.

I agree anyone buying needs to be carefull as always, some peoples mortgage rate is so low they could get better returns by investing spare cash instead of overpaying. But they should not take to much notice of you.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

I agree anyone buying needs to be carefull as always, some peoples mortgage rate is so low they could get better returns by investing spare cash instead of overpaying. But they should not take to much notice of you.

It should be "Too" not "To".