If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

prosaver wrote: »

thanks for the tip:beer: what about Boris?

Here's the market for next PM which I take to be a good proxy for next Tory PM given that Mr Cameron has stated that he's going to resign before the next election plus the whole fixed term thingy:

https://www.betfair.com.au/sports/politics/uk-politics/2214287

Bozza is 3.9 to back and 4.5 to lay. No value on either side that I can see. Gove at 24-1 (25) might offer value I suppose. He's a senior bloke and I could see everyone else punching themselves out and he nips in to get the prize at the end.

Corbyn is 23-2 (12.5) which relies on both the Tory Government imploding and him managing to win an election against anyone at all.

Anyone else from the Labour side is a horrible bet because for it to come in you need them to get past Mr Corbyn and the Tories and you just can't get the odds to make it worth it. For example Hillary Benn at 21-1 (22). For him to be next PM he needs Mr Corbyn not to be leader any more and Labour have never sacked a sitting leader so for him even to get a shot requires Mr Corbyn to quit or die.

Then he needs to win in the face of a party that seems to be facing strongly to the left.

Then he needs to win Scotland, that is infatuated with the SNP, and get a huge chunk of England.

If the chance of those three things happening is 3-1 each, which seems pretty mean in face of the stats, then you'd need 27-1 to make the bet a break even. If I reckoned 27-1 was break even then I'd want something like 50-1 to actually put money on it and as it's a really long odds bet probably more like 100-1.

This isn't an anti-Labour bias because TBH I can't see anyone else on the Tory side worth backing either. Bozza would be the first Tory leader from the back benches since [antrobus...help!]. George Osbourne may well win it but at 3-1 (4) isn't worth it.

Mr Umunna might be the other worthwhile bet I suppose at 59-1 (60). Still they are short odds considering that you are effectively putting on an accumulator. He might be worth backing in case he gives a Benn-style speech and comes in a bit in which case you can back out your position.

prosaver

Moby wrote: »

Good....'if you know your history'....point Sapphire....that's why the EU is so important! Fragmentation of Europe will see the forces you describe re-emerge. History tells us that!

its Ok we will beat them again:beer:

Generali

Moby wrote: »

I must admit Cameron was impressive in articulating his position in interview on Sunday. Totally agree about May ...she is more able than any of the other prospects. She doesn't represent a clique within the party and seems to have integrity. In fact accepting the horse I back is out of the running for the next couple of elections probably....I'd go as far as to say I'd hope she would win. At least I could respect her, if not agree with her politically! Imagine soon we could have Hilary Clinton, Theresa May, Merkel sorting Putin out! However if we stay in surely Osborne is a shoe in....if we Brexit......it's BoJo.... because he reaches the parts of the tory grassroots that the others can't reach.

The Tories will back a winner. There isn't a faction that wants Real Torism or something.

I think she's a very strong candidate: articulate, not-posh (idiotic that it still matters in the C21st but this is your country not mine!), very bright and has great real-world experience before entering politics. Mrs May is very much from the centre, or at least has re-positioned herself there, and has done almost 6 years in the Home Office which is amazing frankly given that it's the political graveyard of the Big 3 jobs.

I'm something of a fan (if it hasn't come across). I think the only real negative is that she's going to be in her mid-60s by the next election however Tory voters tend to be older than Labour voters so maybe that's not the disadvantage that I imagine.

Sapphire

Moby wrote: »

Good....'if you know your history'....point Sapphire....that's why the EU is so important! Fragmentation of Europe will see the forces you describe re-emerge. History tells us that!

I don't believe that. See my previous post re. how I think the EU may break up. European countries are simply too different from each other to work harmoniously together when a real crisis occurs. It all works fine when a couple of affluent countries pay (bribe) poorer countries, as has happened over the last couple of decades, but when a serious political crisis occurs, there will be a break-up. This has happened within empires throughout history, after all (as well as inheriting the lovely family experiences, I have also studied history and prehistory, including that of the Near East, so I have a bit of understanding of these matters). Europe is not made up like the United States, which is one large nation that is unified in its origins and history.

As far as the EU is concerned, I believe in economic union, trade agreements, etc., but not in the scenario that is being played out now.

prosaver

Generali wrote: »

Here's the market for next PM which I take to be a good proxy for next Tory PM given that Mr Cameron has stated that he's going to resign before the next election plus the whole fixed term thingy:

https://www.betfair.com.au/sports/politics/uk-politics/2214287

Bozza is 3.9 to back and 4.5 to lay. No value on either side that I can see. Gove at 24-1 (25) might offer value I suppose. He's a senior bloke and I could see everyone else punching themselves out and he nips in to get the prize at the end.

Corbyn is 23-2 (12.5) which relies on both the Tory Government imploding and him managing to win an election against anyone at all.

Anyone else from the Labour side is a horrible bet because for it to come in you need them to get past Mr Corbyn and the Tories and you just can't get the odds to make it worth it. For example Hillary Benn at 21-1 (22). For him to be next PM he needs Mr Corbyn not to be leader any more and Labour have never sacked a sitting leader so for him even to get a shot requires Mr Corbyn to quit or die.

Then he needs to win in the face of a party that seems to be facing strongly to the left.

Then he needs to win Scotland, that is infatuated with the SNP, and get a huge chunk of England.

If the chance of those three things happening is 3-1 each, which seems pretty mean in face of the stats, then you'd need 27-1 to make the bet a break even. If I reckoned 27-1 was break even then I'd want something like 50-1 to actually put money on it and as it's a really long odds bet probably more like 100-1.

This isn't an anti-Labour bias because TBH I can't see anyone else on the Tory side worth backing either. Bozza would be the first Tory leader from the back benches since [antrobus...help!]. George Osbourne may well win it but at 3-1 (4) isn't worth it.

Mr Umunna might be the other worthwhile bet I suppose at 59-1 (60). Still they are short odds considering that you are effectively putting on an accumulator. He might be worth backing in case he gives a Benn-style speech and comes in a bit in which case you can back out your position.

paddy powers bought betfair and ruined it :mad: for lay bets.
Anyway thanks, not very good odds though

prosaver

Sapphire wrote: »

I don't believe that. See my previous post re. how I think the EU may break up. European countries are simply too different from each other to work harmoniously together when a real crisis occurs. It all works fine when a couple of affluent countries pay (bribe) poorer countries, as has happened over the last couple of decades, but when a serious political crisis occurs, there will be a break-up. This has happened within empires throughout history, after all (as well as inheriting the lovely family experiences, I have also studied history and prehistory, including that of the Near East, so I have a bit of understanding of these matters). Europe is not made up like the United States, which is one large nation that is unified in its origins and history.

As far as the EU is concerned, I believe in economic union, trade agreements, etc., but not in the scenario that is being played out now.

I said that they all hate us anyway
...and someone replied...''they hate each other too'', which i thought was true and quite funny:)

movilogo

I'll just take my savings, sell my flat and !!!!!! off somewhere else. You can have all the people who've retired in Spain, Portugal, France etc back

That is not a bad thing though. The pensioners coming back from EU are one off event and these old people will die in few years time.

But, if current influx of (unlimited) migrants from EU (+ asylum from all over the world) continues, the problem is never ending. Then you will argue we need even more migrants when these migrants become old.

I'd rather solve the problem once for all

So voting to LEAVE EU.

Generali

prosaver wrote: »

paddy powers bought betfair and ruined it :mad: for lay bets.

Did they really? I've not been betting for a few years in any sort of serious way because I can't afford to lose at present and I'm not stupid enough to bet on those terms. I'd noticed that Betfair seems to have gotten worse and worse to lay on but I thought maybe that was because I wasn't keeping an eye on it properly.

So Paddy Powers is just laying off on Betfair and screwing the punter at the same time...? %^&^*ers.

prosaver wrote: »

Anyway thanks, not very good odds though

As I say, I think Ms May is worth a punt at these prices.

CLAPTON

tincans6 wrote: »

Perhaps that's because the majority of people cry arsing on about it don't actually live in areas where there is over-crowding of NHS facilities or housing.

The loony fringe (well majority) of the Tory party are based in the shires.

Many of UKIP areas of strongest voting percentage (Jarrow, Easington, Sunderland & Hartlepool had UKIP votes between 20% and 28%) are not remotely over crowded in terms of housing or education.
I could add that waiting lists and other problems in the NHS were miles and miles worse under John Majors government well before a surge in immigration.

Often people are racist - it's laughable to suggest otherwise.

excellent post : illustrates the faux racist accusation very well.

prosaver

Generali wrote: »

Did they really? I've not been betting for a few years in any sort of serious way because I can't afford to lose at present and I'm not stupid enough to bet on those terms. I'd noticed that Betfair seems to have gotten worse and worse to lay on but I thought maybe that was because I wasn't keeping an eye on it properly.

So Paddy Powers is just laying off on Betfair and screwing the punter at the same time...? %^&^*ers.




As I say, I think Ms May:) is worth a punt at these prices.

and labrokes bought Betdaq year ago:mad: