If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

Yolina wrote: »

I'm in a bit of a stroppy mood today (well it is Monday morning after all) so here's my mini rant

I'm French and I've been in the UK since 1994, so most of my adult life. I like it here but if you lot vote out and make it a PITA for me to stay, I'll just take my savings, sell my flat and !!!!!! off somewhere else. You can have all the people who've retired in Spain, Portugal, France etc back

Do not worry Yolina, I strongly believe some views in this thread expressed by the usual bigots is still a minority view and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
By the way, do you wash cars?

setmefree2

zarf2007 wrote: »

has anyone tried to teach in a class where the kids speak 10 native languages that are not english?)

Here in London the state schools are excellent - so yes lots of teachers seem to be able to handle this.

By the way, most foreign" kids seem to have excellent English tbh....

Sapphire

setmefree2 wrote: »

I don't want to be part of that. I'm glad Cameron has made it clear the UK is not part of that - that we are not part of "ever closer union". I would vote Leave if I thought that was what I was voting for. I'm voting to stay in a trading block.

Trouble is, though, that after the vote, if we did vote to stay, there would be no reason for other EU countries to adhere to even the small things Cameron has agreed (I believe that the sneering attitude of Poland, for example, has made that quite clear).

Germany clearly wants to lead this 'ever-closer union' (and to enlarge it with other, poorer countries, even including, via a type of blackmail, a Muslim country that is largely outside Europe!), and would be highly unlikely to depart from its position. We will only have one chance to vote (and I intend to vote to leave). However, I think that whatever happens, the EU will break apart quite soon due to the differences in character of the countries that belong to it – perhaps resulting in the type of scenario I outlined in a previous post.

CLAPTON

Sapphire wrote: »

Trouble is, though, that after the vote, if we did vote to stay, there would be no reason for other EU countries to adhere to even the small things Cameron has agreed (I believe that the sneering attitude of Poland, for example, has made that quite clear).

Germany clearly wants to lead this 'ever-closer union' (and to enlarge it with other, poorer countries, even including, via a type of blackmail, a Muslim country that is largely outside Europe!), and would be highly unlikely to depart from its position. We will only have one chance to vote (and I intend to vote to leave). However, I think that whatever happens, the EU will break apart quite soon due to the differences in character of the countries that belong to it – perhaps resulting in the type of scenario I outlined in a previous post.

if the vote is to stay in, the future negotiating position of the UK is effectively zero.

setmefree2

Sapphire wrote: »

Trouble is, though, that after the vote, if we did vote to stay, there would be no reason for other EU countries to adhere to even the small things Cameron has agreed (I believe that the sneering attitude of Poland, for example, has made that quite clear).

Germany clearly wants to lead this 'ever-closer union' (and to enlarge it with other, poorer countries, even including, via a type of blackmail, a Muslim country that is largely outside Europe!), and would be highly unlikely to depart from its position. We will only have one chance to vote (and I intend to vote to leave). However, I think that whatever happens, the EU will break apart quite soon due to the differences in character of the countries that belong to it – perhaps resulting in the type of scenario I outlined in a previous post.

Once we've had one referendum it will be easy to have another - ask the SNP:)

setmefree2

CLAPTON wrote: »

if the vote is to stay in, the future negotiating position of the UK is effectively zero.

Once we've had one referendum it will be easy to have another - ask the SNP:)

N1AK

Sapphire wrote: »

a Muslim country that is largely outside Europe!

A Muslim nation in the Evangelical Union unthinkable!... Wait, you mean that isn't what it stands for?

At least we don't have to dig too deep to see what your real motivation is.

setmefree2

Pound suffers biggest one-day fall since 2010 on Brexit fears

But

FTSE shrugs off Brexit fears

Many sources.

Google it

N1AK

zarf2007 wrote: »

has anyone tried to teach in a class where the kids speak 10 native languages that are not english?)....but hey we can't mention that, as any kind of criticism to you left wing idiots is deemed racist....rather than common sense.

It isn't criticism that's the issue, it's the ineptitude of it. If you can find me an example of anyone on here calling you a bigot or racist for saying it's difficult teaching in a multi-language classroom I'll give you some credit, but it's almost certainly the same straw-man nonsense. If people are accusing you of either thing it wouldn't surprise me, but they'll be doing it for better reasons than you seem to deludedly dismiss it with.

setmefree2

We estimate that a decision to leave the EU would have a significant adverse impact on economic activity. The immediate aftermath would likely result in substantial uncertainty weighing on investment, while UK households would struggle to maintain spending power amid an anticipated rise in import costs. Quantifying the impact on the economy is uncertain, but we consider GDP may be 2-7 per cent lower than it might otherwise be, with such losses likely front-loaded.
How would the authorities react? Fiscal policy is likely to be highly constrained with weaker growth slowing deficit reduction, and lower potential GDP outlook raising the structural deficit. Monetary policy has more scope for reaction. We are sceptical that the Monetary Policy Committee would follow European examples of adopting a negative policy rate, constraining any conventional policy response (we suggest two rate cuts to zero). With forward-guidance likely to be of limited use, we believe Brexit would push the Bank to embark upon further quantitative easing.
Sterling would likely face a significant drop. A decision to leave would likely trigger further weakness as growth slows, policy is eased, deficits increase, capital inflows fade and questions are asked about the UK’s export capabilities. Given sterling’s current weakness, we estimate that the currency would fall by at least 10 per cent (to the US dollar) on actual secession.
Equities would also likely drop. Weaker GDP growth and more difficult export conditions would impact specific sectors, including financial services, exporters, retail and property. This should be somewhat offset by a lower level of the pound and QE. But the net effect is likely to be negative.
Gilt market reaction would likely be more neutral, caught between divergent forces. Concerns over UK credit quality may prompt capital flight, particularly in an economy dependent on imported capital. A short-term, sterling-inspired inflation spike would also raise nominal yields. But the prospect of additional QE and weaker potential GDP growth should tend to lower yields overall. We would also expect to see a further widening in sterling credit spreads.
Of course, with markets already pricing some probability of Brexit a decision to remain in the EU would also result in market reaction: sterling should rise, rate expectations lift and UK credit spreads and equities outperform. This looks most likely to us.
But the only thing that is certain is that idiosyncratic market volatility will remain high in the UK until after the summer.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d0e11d8-c03b-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#axzz40tOAGVJ4