If we vote for Brexit what happens

Rinoa

Boris’ Telegraph column is out:

There is only one way to get the change we need, and that is to vote to go, because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No. The fundamental problem remains: that they have an ideal that we do not share. They want to create a truly federal union, e pluribus unum, when most British people do not.
It is time to seek a new relationship, in which we manage to extricate ourselves from most of the supranational elements. We will hear a lot in the coming weeks about the risks of this option; the risk to the economy, the risk to the City of London, and so on; and though those risks cannot be entirely dismissed, I think they are likely to be exaggerated. We have heard this kind of thing before, about the decision to opt out of the euro, and the very opposite turned out to be the case…
This is the right moment to have a referendum, because as Europe changes, Britain is changing too. This is a truly great country that is now going places at extraordinary speed. We are the European, if not the world, leaders in so many sectors of the 21st-century economy; not just financial services, but business services, the media, biosciences, universities, the arts, technology of all kinds (of the 40 EU technology companies worth more than $1 billion, 17 are British); and we still have a dizzyingly fertile manufacturing sector.
Now is the time to spearhead the success of those products and services not just in Europe, but in growth markets beyond. This is a moment to be brave, to reach out – not to hug the skirts of Nurse in Brussels, and refer all decisions to someone else.
We have given so much to the world, in ideas and culture, but the most valuable British export and the one for which we are most famous is the one that is now increasingly in question: parliamentary democracy – the way the people express their power.
This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to vote for real change in Britain’s relations with Europe. This is the only opportunity we will ever have to show that we care about self-rule. A vote to Remain will be taken in Brussels as a green light for more federalism, and for the erosion of democracy.
In the next few weeks, the views of people like me will matter less and less, because the choice belongs to those who are really sovereign – the people of the UK. And in the matter of their own sovereignty the people, by definition, will get it right.

lvader

CLAPTON wrote: »

with our massive trade deficit a fall in the pound is good for exports

It also makes imports more expensive, so potentially makes the deficit worse not better.

CLAPTON

lvader wrote: »

It also makes imports more expensive, so potentially makes the deficit worse not better.

better balance of trade means lower capital account

Sapphire

LHW99 wrote: »

I also remember Wilson - and Heath.

The idea that if, heaven forbid, the UK needed bailouts in future we would have the EU crowd in charch, as has been for Greece horrifies me. Just the IMF was shameful, but at least they knew what they were doing, and there were not three different bodies trying to supervise what went on.

And as for Heath assuring the country there was no plan for a European superstate (which I remember hearing and not believing even then) when he knew that was the ultimate vision - I have never trusted any politician since.

The idea that Europe should be the centre of the UK's orbit is indeed 50 years out of date, and in an increasingly globalised world is a totally irrelevant idea IMHO.

Yes – and as mentioned before I was not really aware until the events of last year that the EU was supposed to be anything more than an economic entity. I was shocked at the undemocratic dictats of Merkel and Juncker, and the shoddy way Britain (and other countries) who had not been consulted on certain actions were addressed and seemingly ordered about by Germany (especially given how much we have contributed to the finances of the EU). Thank goodness the events of last year gave this issue a focus, because I believe this 'ever-closer political union' business was thrust on us by stealth, without examining the implications of a loss of sovereignty, or, in fact, how such a union could work among countries with completely different national characters (unlike the states of the US, for example). (Similarly, I feel the Euro will ultimately fail because it was imposed on countries with totally different economies.) I also dislike all those unelected bureaucrats, the vasts sums of taxpayers' money that are spent on them and their vanity projects (they are almost like some club of smug individuals forever having group photos taken of them).

There are obvious signs that the EU is out of date and breaking apart. What I think may happen eventually will be that countries that are fairly similar in character may group together, e.g.:

1. Eastern European states of former communist block (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia) will form their own alliance.

2. Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, with similar financial problems and at the forefront of the migrant crisis, will form their own block.

3. Sweden, Germany and Austria may end up with a civil war (though I hope this does not happen and they manage to stop the migrant crisis and undo some of their decisions).

4. France and the Benelux states may move closer to UK position.

5. Baltic States, Finland and Bulgaria may re-form their historic ties with Russia.

When it comes to Britain, I think we have many ties outside Europe, to which we are actually closer historically and perhaps emotionally (e.g. Australia, New Zealand, India) than the countries of mainland Europe. There are countries of the Commonwealth, and also the United States (if, say, Clinton wins the election), to which we have been close in the past but have drifted apart from.

So for me, Brexit will put us in a stronger position politically and economically, give us a chance to choose our own destiny, to control who we allow into the country and close our borders except to those who bring genuine economic benefits to Britain, and to ensure that immigration does not result in massive negative implications for the NHS, housing and other things (as it is already doing now). I do remember passport controls and they were not at all onerous wherever I travelled – open borders are not a very good idea, as far as I'm concerned, and especially not so now, given the safety issues involved.

cells

I would vote for a brexit if we kept fairly open borders to the rest if the EU so we could go live in the EU and they can come live here.

But since a leave vote will likely get rid of that free movement of people I will likely vote to stay in.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

I would vote for a brexit if we kept fairly open borders to the rest if the EU so we could go live in the EU and they can come live here.

But since a leave vote will likely get rid of that free movement of people I will likely vote to stay in.

that seems about the least likely outcome : I guess you will be voting to stay.

Generali

lvader wrote: »

It also makes imports more expensive, so potentially makes the deficit worse not better.

Traditionally economists think of a fall in the currency as looking like a J on its side: the trade deficit increases for a while as import prices increase and export prices fall. Then, in time, the change in prices is reflected in substitutions being found for imports and more exports being sold.

There is a ton of research to back up that view however, from memory, the research also says that the effect tends to be sort lived and in time countries end up at the status quo ante.

Regarding any post-Brexit trade, the big target for the Eurozone would be finance. Financial services is a huge earner both for the domestic economy and internationally. The trade surplus in financial services is north of £50,000,000,000 IIRC and a huge proportion of that trade will be to European countries. London is a world centre in a couple of services, notably FX, but is the European centre in almost all markets.

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

But how is the treatment of Greece 'progressive?
why is one size fits all progressive?
why do you consider withdrawing from the rest of the world progressive?
why was refusing to help the developing countries, by allowing them access to the EU markets, progressive?
how do you consider the treatment of the Roma in europe as progressive?
why do you consider the colonialist fishing policies of the EU on the West Aftrica coast progressive?


why do you fear engaging with all the countries of the world : is it because they are often non white: is that a problem for you?

and I've forgotten your loathing of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott but you can remind me if you like

You are just being totally partial in your choice of examples and where exactly did I say I wanted to withdraw from the world? Prejudice, discrimination etc are present all over the world, as demonstrated in the little englander, McCarthyite attitudes you exude. I believe an unreconstructed post war Europe would have been infinitely worse. There are always faults with such a massive project but they are inconsequential when you see the gain of a Europe free of the turmoil of war experienced for centuries prior to the EU. France and Germany are now so tightly embraced, their futures are bound up together and all the other states of Europe are drawn in. War therefore is hopefully unthinkable now. The injustices you describe are paltry fare compared to that huge gain! We need to be part of the future direction of this project. The world is coalescing into blocks. We need to be part of our natural block and it is not India, Canada etc - that would be thinking like a colonialist! We are first and foremost Europeans. Our big neighbours are France and Germany. Whatever they are up to we need to be part of. Being part of something bigger helps to widen your perspective on life. By the way I didnt know the EU was responsible for discrimination of the Roma. I always thought that was a centuries old issue brought to a head by the greatest fascist of all whose ruin led to the birth of the great European project that we will hopefully long be part of.

wymondham

cells wrote: »

I would vote for a brexit if we kept fairly open borders to the rest if the EU so we could go live in the EU and they can come live here.

But since a leave vote will likely get rid of that free movement of people I will likely vote to stay in.

If the big social problems/experiments such as enforced integration continue in Europe I would think you may one day not worry too much about not being able to move over there?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Traditionally economists think of a fall in the currency as looking like a J on its side: the trade deficit increases for a while as import prices increase and export prices fall. Then, in time, the change in prices is reflected in substitutions being found for imports and more exports being sold.....

And there's the Marshall-Lerner condition. You have to take into account elasticity of demand.