If we vote for Brexit what happens

buglawton

lisyloo wrote: »

Well you've reinforced my point.
We are good at selling expensive quality products to rich people.
I'm sure there are some rich people in India, but the cast majority of the population are poor and coudn't afford a mini of a Brompton, more likely a Tata or very cheap Chinese scooter.

I take the point about chips, creative industries etc.
I would expect GKN to move some aerospace work to China.

All first world countries have to sell high profit margin goods & services and offshore low margin work to developing countries. Otherwise us British couldn't afford our lifestyles and welfare state.

lisyloo

Yep, I agree

ukcarper

economic wrote: »

exactly what difference does average wage make? crashy is silly.

You can say that again from previous posts of his. It appears he sold in the 90s and has rented ever since mainly in house shares. Not because he couldn't afford to buy but because he thought prices were to high.

He could well be right and prices are going to fall, but it's been 2 weeks since referendum and it's much to early to tell what is going on. I don't think anybody can predict with certainty what will happen to house prices whether that's is up or down.

buglawton

However let's not forget that it's the pressure of globalisation that triggered Brexit and which will continue to challenge us. That's why I've argued elsewhere that the UK needs a crack globalisation think tank working for it.

50 years hence the cheap labour developing world will have shrunk, leaving only successful dictatorships as stuck at underdeveloped. Getting from here to there will be the interesting part for the UK.

peter_we

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well there has never been a property bubble like this, especially in London, so it is likely that people are more stretched than in previous decades? My bet is that large numbers of people around the UK have stretched themselves financially to get into the property bubble, and are now probably quite concerned.

Even in London, the average Loan To Value of existing homeowners is very small, 35%. In reality very few people are stretched because they bought years ago when prices were lower.

always_sunny

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well there has never been a property bubble like this, especially in London, so it is likely that people are more stretched than in previous decades? My bet is that large numbers of people around the UK have stretched themselves financially to get into the property bubble, and are now probably quite concerned.

You are talking about people who bought something very expensive that they cannot afford. Those people will always be in trouble, whether they buy a property, a car, a couch. Or a people who can write the amount off as a loss.

Then there are plenty of people who buy sensible properties based on their income to live in and they will be fine. You make it sound like these people have the option of waiting, not sure where, but possibly camping on the banks of the Thames whilst the price adjusts.

Someone paying £1k in rent = £12k a year (small flat) * 8 years (the '08 crash) would have paid £96k in rent waiting for this amazeball crash that hasn't happened. I do not believe for one moment that London (and commuting to) property will drop to country Bulgaria prices post-Brexit.

What will be affected are all those new developments that are beyond any affordability level for anyone local even on high salary (£120k). These properties are mostly bought for cash, I doubt that anyone working locally on London average salary (£36k) would even remotely look at them.
And it is not just a London problem...

jimpix12

always_sunny wrote: »

Very few can afford the London properties that will be at risk. Those who bought them to speculate will find other way to cut the losses.
Folks who bought to live in as a long term home will be barely affected unless they overstretched themselves financially. (nothing new, always has been like that)

Given that the average person has I think a 50 quid slush/emergency fund things can get bad very quickly.

If Carney does raise rates the muck will hit the fan instantly. Here's hoping

Conrad

buglawton wrote: »

All first world countries have to sell high profit margin goods & services and offshore low margin work to developing countries. Otherwise us British couldn't afford our lifestyles and welfare state.

Here's the point:

Well still trade just as much with Europe as we have been but now we're free to do frame deals with growing parts of world ourselves and not via old men in Brussels that have a poor trade deal record

You guys are determined to see this all as negative, as I say it's akin to cult like brain washing

ukcarper

spunko2010 wrote: »

Given that the average person has I think a 50 quid slush/emergency fund things can get bad very quickly.

If Carney does raise rates the muck will hit the fan instantly. Here's hoping

Thing is though he's saying he might have to reduce them.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

Establishment inertia.

Blair relied on establishment inertia to take us to war. As with the Leave campaign, it was outsiders and people at street level that could see the establishment narrative was floored. The stop the war coalition was dismissed by the establishment media complex, just as Brexit was

I see Sajid is over in India for trade talks and I fully expect a rapid show case deal being done with a population double that of the EUs and in rapid growth

The new global facing tiger Britain is a reality, change is part and parcel of innovation and the Human journey

In this post Brexit world we will have to hope that there is a good deal to be done.
Not wanting to rain on your parade however.
You mention population, please remember population does not (in India) relate to disposable income.
Secondly any trade deal can not come into force before we have LEFT the EU which is two years plus down the road. I except that the groundwork and investment (spending money) can take place.
Perhaps India would like free movement between India and Britain as part of the deal?

In this post Brexit world we must not make the mistake we all made before the referendum of believing "our sides" propaganda.