If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

cashbackproblems wrote: »

I have no interest in a big crash as my partner is an EA and heavily commission based pay, but i am predicting a 20% slow fall over the next 12-18 months and even she is seeing the market move this way

Wouldn't a higher transaction volume be more beneficial?

jimpix12

Yes.

There will come a point where agents will start to worry about low sales as this will affect their bottom line. So they'll have their work cut out in persuading sellers their home isn't worth what they were originally told.

Happy to coin it in whatever the market most agents. Just as long as they can keep their head above the water.

Harper123

spunko2010 wrote: »

Did seem a slightly odd thing to admit though.

I'm predicting 20pc drops in the next year. I hope it's double that though.

In my area a 20% drop would take houses back to 2012 levels. A 40% drop would take houses back to 2004 levels.

I don't know about you but the salary for the job I'm currently doing is A LOT higher now than it was in 2004.

cashbackproblems

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Wouldn't a higher transaction volume be more beneficial?

yes thats what i said, volumes tend to go as prices go down, as those who don't have to sell won't.

mwpt

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

what an economic illiterate


what is the correct value of the pound?


how does a 7% trade deficit affect the correct value.

Crashy_Time

Harper123 wrote: »

In my area a 20% drop would take houses back to 2012 levels. A 40% drop would take houses back to 2004 levels.

I don't know about you but the salary for the job I'm currently doing is A LOT higher now than it was in 2004.

How many multiples of salary were people borrowing though, to get to present levels?

Kohoutek

This is pretty interesting:

https://next.ft.com/content/bea8ecf4-452a-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

Gibraltar is calling for a second referendum once a post-Brexit deal is struck with the EU as it focuses on talks with Scotland over ways to remain a member of the European bloc.

The British territory on the southern tip of Spain, which was the UK’s most pro-EU district with 96 per cent of voters supporting Remain, wants the British people to have their say on the outcome of negotiations between the UK and other EU member states after Article 50 has been invoked.

“In the referendum two weeks ago it was either in, with our existing conditions, or out. But nobody knew what out meant,” Fabian Picardo, the chief minister of Gibraltar, told the FT in an interview.

He said voters should be given a second chance to decide between remaining part of the EU and accepting a new post-Brexit accord with EU member states.

He said talks with the Scottish government over how to secure continued membership were considering options such as the “reverse-Greenland” model. This would mean redefining the territory of the UK in a way that would leave Scotland, Gibraltar and possibly Northern Ireland inside the EU while allowing England and Wales to leave. It is based on a 1985 EU decision that allowed Greenland, a devolved part of Denmark, to leave the union while Denmark remained.

brit1234

Harper123 wrote: »

In my area a 20% drop would take houses back to 2012 levels. A 40% drop would take houses back to 2004 levels.

I don't know about you but the salary for the job I'm currently doing is A LOT higher now than it was in 2004.

A lot of people especially the public sector salaries are the same as 2004 levels when you take inflation into account.

Its been the record low interest rates, QE, funding for lending, buy to let, interest only mortgages, 40 year mortgages, self cert/liar loans, fraud, money laundering that have lead to this property bubble not a successful economy with big wage rises.

michael1234

I think the most likely outcome will be a long period of stagnation with prices outside London remaining broadly constant (but falling in real terms). In London, we might see a correction of some kind.

For prices to fall/crash we would need to see supply shoot up. That would only happen if people suddenly can't afford their mortgages which in term is most likely if either unemployment shoots up or interest rates do. The latter is very unlikely for a long time yet whereas unemployment is a bigger unknown. Personally I don't think it will be affected that much at least for the next year or so.

So nobody will be selling much and nobody will be wanting to buy either. Maybe after a long period of that people will start to regain confidence and transactions will go up again.

Alternatively, if the political situation settles down that might prove the fillip the market needs.In particular, if and when it starts to look likely that we'll retain access to the EU market including financial services passporting, all markets will rise IMO. Of course even being able to guess at that would be between several weeks and a few years away depending on what our "esteemed" politicians decide next.