If we vote for Brexit what happens

baza52

Jason74 wrote: »

And that's fair enough, it's how democracy works after all and given my starting belief that most people essentially want to do the right thing I have no reason to think you did anything other than take an honest decision with the best intentions.

I suppose if I'm honest, I just really struggle with how anyone can with a clear head believe this is the right move. I get the idea of some people being frustrated with their lot to the point where they'll vote for change, any change in the desperate hope that things improve. I also get (albeit ultimately disagree with) the idea that the element of shared sovereignty inherent in something like the EU is so abhorrent that it's worth any price to be rid of it.

But when I look at the negatives of Brexit, they seem huge. There's the economic damage (and I don't think anyone can really argue that there will be a lot of that, at least in the short term), the loss of the ability to influence a huge international organisation on our doorstep that will impact us regardless, even how we are perceived internationally as a result of the decision. I just don't get how any perceived benefits of Brexit can be worth all that.

I don't say any of this to be confrontational. Given the decision is now made I really hope I'm wrong, and given that the majority of those who voted agreed with you, I'm clearly missing something. I'd genuinely really love to know what it is.

The uk was told what would likely happen if we voted leave.
The same people that told us don't exactly have a good history of being completely truthful nor do they tend to do things they say they will when its time to attract votes.

I like to think that we are now perceived worldwide as a country that has stood up and made a stand against the establishment.
The UK was always a force to be reckoned with and our economy backs this up.
We are now free from the ties of the EU, free to trade with who we want and free to make our own laws again.

We have not seen any major things happen like the remain camp said would happen and to me it just backs up my reasoning that the remain camp were just leading us down the garden path as usual to get our votes.

Thrugelmir

Jason74 wrote: »

I don't say any of this to be confrontational. Given the decision is now made I really hope I'm wrong, and given that the majority of those who voted agreed with you, I'm clearly missing something. I'd genuinely really love to know what it is.

Issues are far broader than the "EU". Brexit was the opportunity for people to vote for real change, express their true feelings. With no politics attached I should add. Globalisation may have reached it's peak. Small may once again come back into vogue.

Jason74

baza52 wrote: »

The uk was told what would likely happen if we voted leave.
The same people that told us don't exactly have a good history of being completely truthful nor do they tend to do things they say they will when its time to attract votes.

I like to think that we are now perceived worldwide as a country that has stood up and made a stand against the establishment.
The UK was always a force to be reckoned with and our economy backs this up.
We are now free from the ties of the EU, free to trade with who we want and free to make our own laws again.

We have not seen any major things happen like the remain camp said would happen and to me it just backs up my reasoning that the remain camp were just leading us down the garden path as usual to get our votes.

Thanks for the honest and considered reply, although it probably comes as no surprise that there is much there I can't agree with.Firstly. I take a very different view on how other countries perceive us following the vote . I get the sense that we're more being seen as a rather petulant bunch who are willing to put our own prosperity and the stability of much of Europe under threat based on an internal political squabble. I suspect though that we're both influenced by our own view on this one and the truth is likely somewhere in between.

Where I really disagree with you is on the economic side. Since the vote, the pound is down 10%, 6 property funds have suspended redemptions due to the uncertainty, the FTSE 250 (a far better measure of the UK economy than the FTSE 100) is down 10%, a number of major employers are making noises about moving jobs away from the UK (and / or not bringing future jobs here), and anecdotally, a lot of property deals are falling through based on the uncertainty. As Mark Carney put it, the risks associated with Brexit are beginning to Crystalise. And it's been less than two weeks since the vote, and in terms of the leaving process nothing has even happened yet!. Of course, this may just be short term volatility based on uncertainty (although I doubt it), but at the moment the economic warnings seem to be ringing very true.

Where I do agree with you though, is on the campaign itself. It was terrible on both sides imho. I'll hold off on my thoughts on the leave campaign, but there's no escaping that the remain side completely failed to make the considerable positive case for our EU membership, and instead tried to simply scare people into submission. That's not good enough from a Government backed campaign, and probably pushed a lot of undecideds in the leave direction.

As for me, I now very much fear the worst, but will hope to be proven wrong.

Kohoutek

baza52 wrote: »

The UK was always a force to be reckoned with and our economy backs this up.
We are now free from the ties of the EU, free to trade with who we want and free to make our own laws again.

Do you seriously think that or are you trolling?

We are not 'free from the EU' in any sense. We are still a member of the EU and will be for at least two years (if Article 50 was served tomorrow, which won't happen).

When / if we do leave the EU, our economy will remain closely tied to the EU (44% of trade currently with the EU). If we go down the EEA route (looks like the most likely option), based on other EEA states, we will be obliged to accept freedom of movement, be obliged to implement EU law and pay into the EU budget.

The thing about making our own laws is just a red herring. Can you name any law derived from EU law which affects your daily life? VAT is probably the only one, but the UK had a consumption tax before VAT. A lot of EU law has had a positive effect for the public: increasing consumer protection standards, improving employee's rights. Another huge chunk of it has no relevance at all to daily life: a huge amount of financial services regulatory law is based on EU law for example.

In areas where we sell a lot of goods and service to the EU, we will have to still comply with EU regulatory standards even after we leave the EU. To not do so would be simply create more red tape for companies (i.e. separate rules for the UK and EU, which both have to be compiled with).

baza52

Jason74 wrote: »

Thanks for the honest and considered reply, although it probably comes as no surprise that there is much there I can't agree with.Firstly. I take a very different view on how other countries perceive us following the vote . I get the sense that we're more being seen as a rather petulant bunch who are willing to put our own prosperity and the stability of much of Europe under threat based on an internal political squabble. I suspect though that we're both influenced by our own view on this one and the truth is likely somewhere in between.

Where I really disagree with you is on the economic side. Since the vote, the pound is down 10%, 6 property funds have suspended redemptions due to the uncertainty, the FTSE 250 (a far better measure of the UK economy than the FTSE 100) is down 10%, a number of major employers are making noises about moving jobs away from the UK (and / or not bringing future jobs here), and anecdotally, a lot of property deals are falling through based on the uncertainty. As Mark Carney put it, the risks associated with Brexit are beginning to Crystalise. And it's been less than two weeks since the vote, and in terms of the leaving process nothing has even happened yet!. Of course, this may just be short term volatility based on uncertainty (although I doubt it), but at the moment the economic warnings seem to be ringing very true.

Where I do agree with you though, is on the campaign itself. It was terrible on both sides imho. I'll hold off on my thoughts on the leave campaign, but there's no escaping that the remain side completely failed to make the considerable positive case for our EU membership, and instead tried to simply scare people into submission. That's not good enough from a Government backed campaign, and probably pushed a lot of undecideds in the leave direction.

As for me, I now very much fear the worst, but will hope to be proven wrong.

we just have to play the waiting game now to see who is right or wrong

Thrugelmir

What's the problem with the £ falling? Never been an issue previously nor has there ever been a desire in the UK to join the Euro. A fluctuating exchange rate was always perceived to be a benefit. Market speculation will ultimately subside.

Likewise share prices move every day. The underlying companies haven't changed overnight. All noise currently.

" 6 property funds have suspended redemptions due to the uncertainty". No they haven't. There's a whole thread on this already.

a number of major employers are making noises about moving jobs away from the UK

Jobs are leaving every week. Asia, India, Eastern Europe. Been happening for at least a decade. Employing people in the UK is expensive.

Jason74

baza52 wrote: »

we just have to play the waiting game now to see who is right or wrong

Ain't that the truth!

Thrugelmir

Kohoutek wrote: »

We are not 'free from the EU' in any sense. We are still a member of the EU and will be for at least two years (if Article 50 was served tomorrow, which won't happen).

When / if we do leave the EU, our economy will remain closely tied to the EU (44% of trade currently with the EU). If we go down the EEA route (looks like the most likely option), based on other EEA states, we will be obliged to accept freedom of movement, be obliged to implement EU law and pay into the EU budget.

The thing about making our own laws is just a red herring. Can you name any law derived from EU law which affects your daily life? VAT is probably the only one, but the UK had a consumption tax before VAT. A lot of EU law has had a positive effect for the public: increasing consumer protection standards, improving employee's rights. Another huge chunk of it has no relevance at all to daily life: a huge amount of financial services regulatory law is based on EU law for example.

In areas where we sell a lot of goods and service to the EU, we will have to still comply with EU regulatory standards even after we leave the EU. To not do so would be simply create more red tape for companies (i.e. separate rules for the UK and EU, which both have to be compiled with).

Do you not think that the EU itself is not as harmonious as it may appear. That actually the UK's voice may cause a fundamental change for the good. That benefits all 28 member states.

Kohoutek

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Jobs are leaving every week. Asia, India, Eastern Europe. Been happening for at least a decade. Employing people in the UK is expensive.

It's impressive how you can keep up the obtuse approach to these issues, but obviously this is different, it is about (i) jobs leaving because the UK is perceived as less competitive as a result of leaving the EU in the future; (ii) jobs going to places where the cost of employing an equivalent worker is around the same as the UK.

Here's an example:

https://next.ft.com/content/8958b02e-3f90-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

'Berlin bids to replace London as post-Brexit fintech capital'

From the moment that Britain voted to leave the EU, financiers across the continent began disagreeing on what it meant for London’s banks. But one German was unequivocal about the consequences for a smaller but growing area of financial services: “London has committed suicide as a leading fintech centre,” tweeted Jochen Siegert, chief operating officer of Traxpay, a Frankfurt-based payments platform.

Germany’s digital entrepreneurs are not only convinced that London is finished, but also believe they are poised to wrest its crown as Europe’s centre of fintech. This confidence is particularly strong in Berlin, the cradle of Germany’s tech industry.

Cornelia Yzer, Berlin’s economics minister, says her department has received “dozens of emails” in the past week from companies based in London considering a relocation to the German capital.

For financial technology — or fintech — groups, the motivation is simple: if, in post-Brexit negotiations, the UK loses access to the European single market, London shrinks as a global banking centre and investment in their start-ups will stop.

Among the companies dusting off their Berlin Rough Guides are TransferWise, a London-based money transfer company that has raised $117m from backers that include Virgin’s Richard Branson, and Revolut, a global payments app that has attracted $4.8m from venture capitalists.

TransferWise, which has 100 of its 600 staff in London, and Revolut, with 40 staff, are both considering the option of moving to Berlin, according to people familiar with the companies’ plans. Revolut’s chief executive, Nikolay Storonsky, openly accepts that the company may need to open and license a subsidiary on the continent if it wants access to the EU. “The transfer side of our business relies on the single market, specifically directives such as Sepa [the single European payments area],” he acknowledges.

Kohoutek

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Do you not think that the EU itself is not as harmonious as it may appear. That actually the UK's voice may cause a fundamental change for the good. That benefits all 28 member states.

What type of 'fundamental change' do you mean?