If we vote for Brexit what happens

dharm999

mayonnaise wrote: »

And I see Moby is breaching copyright.

Anyway, it's still early days.
Looks like there's some reluctancy triggering Article 50, and I'm convinced there are already (or will be soon) negotiations going on behind the scenes (away for the hard stance facade from the EU) as to how to go forward.
My guess is we'll end up with something like a Norway model.

It won't be Norway, that would mean free movement of people. For the new Government, who would have to be led by a Brexiter, and to have any credibility, they cannot have free movement of people.

It will have to be a free trade agreement, of some sort, that allows us to restrict movement of people but not free movement of services, as we run a large surplus with the rest of the EU on services. How likely is that? In reality, will be allowed to pick and choose like that? I very much doubt it. Paris and Frankfurt are desperate for more financial services jobs and will play hardball to get them, which will mean us having to compromise. It will be a compromise, Boris et al will come back saying this is the best deal we could do, and millions who voted to leave because of immigration will have been betrayed.

For me, one of the huge ironies, is that areas that voted to leave are now worried they won't get the EU funding they were promised, and will be reliant on a Boris led government to ensure that they will. How likely is that? A Tory government giving out money to areas
that vote Labour, not going to happen.

In the short to medium term, probably, at least 5 to 10 years the people hardest hit will be those who voted to leave, after that, who knows? Could we be better off than if had stayed in, a possibility, yes, probable, no. It will all depend on the deal we do, and how quickly we can negotiate trade deals with other countries. Of course, we need negotiators for that, so the 20 we have are going to be busy for a very long time.

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

No you are confused : you are describing the result of a Labour win in a GE.

There will be short term fluctuating because all those CEOs, financial wizards, international bodies etc etc who pontificated about the necessity of remain, were, as usual wrong and failed to plan properly for brexit.

The country is indeed split between those that support democracy and those that don't.

There is little likelihood of any significant reduction in living standards but hope for better housing, transport health care and increasing international trade.

The reaction of the EU will be very important : will they break a habit of a lifetime and do what is best for the people of Europe or blindly continue to pursue their own political agenda?

The people who voted Brexit have been sold a lie; the lie that their problems are due to immigration; a lie that the Brexit politicians are now rowing back on as fast as possible. The Brexiteer working classes in Wales, in the North and in the Midlands have been disadvantaged for years. I know this because I am one of them and I am Labour. They are the victims of globalisation and the politics of austerity. Leaving the EU is not going to sort their health, education, housing problems though. Their situation is going to get much worse for the reasons I have given.

How the EU responds is an unknown. We are now in a world of uncertainty. Watch Tony Blair being interviewed by Andrew Neill this morning. He nails it. By the way you don't get to define 'democracy'. To describe this vote as final because it was the democratic will of the people is simplistic and only said because your side won. Farage is on record as saying a close vote does not end it and it's the one thing he has said that I agree with!

posh*spice

mwpt wrote: »

Err, is this certain? Can you point to a reliable source?

Can the United Kingdom government legally disregard a vote for Brexit?

There are three points of interest here in respect of any withdrawal from the EU by the UK.
First, it is a matter for a member state’s “own constitutional requirements” as to how it decides to withdraw. The manner is not prescribed: so it can be a referendum, or a parliamentary vote, or some other means. In the UK, it would seem that some form of parliamentary approval would be required — perhaps a motion or resolution rather than a statute. The position, however, is not clear and the UK government has so far been coy about being specific.

http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/14/can-the-united-kingdom-government-legally-disregard-a-vote-for-brexit/

Plenty of other sources out there too which says a vote in Parliament is required.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

What else can they say? Business as usual is just a way of covering up the fact we are now realising that we are in a deep hole and not sure how we are going to get out of it.

Europe is in a deep financial hole. There's no discussion though. Sitting on an island happy as larry with an attitude of we are alright jack appears to be the new English way. The UK economy is far from healthy. The injection of £25 billion of PPI payouts into consumers pockets may may provided a timely boost. But it's impact is is in decline. Something else will have to fill the void.

vivatifosi

Generali wrote: »

London paying for the whole shebang wasn't enough for a bunch of idle winkers in the North. They actually wanted people to pretend that they had some value as they sat on their hands.

Now they've voted to reduce the ability of Londoners to pay their bills for them. Let's see how that goes.

This isn't just about the north. If you look at the counties in the south east, there's a lot of leave voters. I've run the numbers for Herts as I live here, it voted out by a paper thin margin... about 3,000 people out of a population of over 1,000,000... 321k to 324k. I don't know all of the constituency names, but it looks as though Essex voted out by a significant number. Kent the same. Hampshire the same. Even in places like Bucks and Berks there are big pockets of out votes... Aylesbury Vale, Milton Keynes, Slough.

Some of these people will be those who like michaels did their research and had an opinion based on, eg sovereignty... but many won't be.

In the south the issues are not quite the same as the north. It is the fact that for many wages haven't risen for years yet both house prices and more particularly rent have reached ludicrous levels. Along with other more subtle issues, and I'm afraid to say, concern over immigration.

The problem is that people are voting about a crisis of democracy and aspiration and using the EU as a proxy for their frustration. This is certainly not a north/south thing only.

vivatifosi

Apologies if this has been posted already, only just spotted it.

There are calls for a second referendum on the grounds that a lot of those registered for postal votes were unable to vote as they didn't receive their papers in time. I don't think it will be enough people though:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-disenfranchised-expats-denied-eu-referendum-missing-postal-votes-demand-re-run-hundreds-a7103066.html

Equally I've heard comment that the UK does not have the right to disenfranchise passport holders that haven't lived in the UK for more than 15 years. That could tip the balance.

buglawton

wotsthat wrote: »

Leave voters are very much more likely to be poorly educated and lack the skills to see through the lies.

They're also the least likely to be able to benefit from the changes ahead which is a consolation.

The demographics of the Leavers is interesting. Street interviews in rustic Northern towns that were a strong Leave seem to show market traders and tradespeople who are not highly educated but are very savvy, experienced in life and have their eyes open. They are all able to explain their thinking.

Meanwhile street Remainer interviews in London that I've seen show archetypal young urban professionals worried about their post-Brexit jobs but otherwise unable to explain any logic in their thinking.

gfplux

csgohan4 wrote: »

The issue is that I suspect that there's a large of people who voted Leave for the wrong reasons.


Be it ill informed by rubbish media sources such as the The Sun, Daily Mail e.t.c or voting against David Cameron/ Conservatives and in so doing, cutting off their own noses in spite.


Simply put, Brexit transcends 'just' immigration and U.K decisions by U.K people Spiel. The signs of the economy cracking might be just a knee jerk, but I fear it may not be and another recession may be around the corner due to the uncertainty and the way investors prefer stability.


If the U.K Economy suffers, guess who suffers? It's not just the fat cat who sits in Canary wharf, but the single mother on benefits with 5 mouths to feed. Austerity will last longer and benefits, wages e.t.c will be frozen/ reduced.


The fact the U.K has been deemed Negative credit worthy is worrying and further piles on the interest on loans and puts the country in further debt.


While I cannot excuse the poor nature of the remain camp and the damp squib that was Corbyn, the fact is, it was to little too late.


I only hope that those who voted leave has not condemned our children to a life of misery and 80's style stagnation

It really doesn't matter. Democracy has spoken. We get the Politiciens we deserve, we get the results we deserve,

vivatifosi

buglawton wrote: »

Meanwhile street Remainer interviews in London that I've seen show archetypal young urban professionals worried about their post-Brexit jobs but otherwise unable to explain any logic in their thinking.

Are concerns about jobs and the economy not rational then?

gfplux

Yolina wrote: »

Actually those HSBC jobs, like the Morgan Stanley ones would be transfers - as in the people currently doing the job in London relocated. I'm sure some would rejoice at losing a few bankers, but the thing is that the support staff that is currently needed in London for these people are the ones who will, well, no longer be needed - I'm taking secretaries, IT support, mailroom staff, print room...

Yolina,
You have my full support.
If you care to fly to Luxembourg you will find a perfect environment for your people.