If we vote for Brexit what happens

eraclea

This makes for an interesting read, not sure if it was posted before.

"If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

London paying for the whole shebang wasn't enough for a bunch of idle winkers in the North. They actually wanted people to pretend that they had some value as they sat on their hands.

Now they've voted to reduce the ability of Londoners to pay their bills for them. Let's see how that goes.

They should know by now how to cajole these people to vote your way though.

When the vote of an idle winker counts for as much as a London lawyer you have a problem.

I reckon the EU could have easily helped Cameron by announcing some new initiative. It still surprises me that they didn't even try.

LauraW10

Generali wrote: »

London paying for the whole shebang wasn't enough for a bunch of idle winkers in the North. They actually wanted people to pretend that they had some value as they sat on their hands.

Now they've voted to reduce the ability of Londoners to pay their bills for them. Let's see how that goes.

Now now Generali!

Sounds like you can't wait for bad things to happen.

BobQ

Petition 3m and counting

ess0two

LauraW10 wrote: »

Now now Generali!

Sounds like you can't wait for bad things to happen.

The guy is so voiciferous over the deal, yet lives in Australia, really no need for him to worry.

ess0two

BACKFRMTHEEDGE wrote: »

It's not done until Article 50 is invoked. Get over it yourself.

I'm over it, sooner we get on with it the better, anyone seriously expecting Article 50 to be done within 24 hrs.

LauraW10

ess0two wrote: »

I'm over it, sooner we get on with it the better, anyone seriously expecting Article 50 to be done within 24 hrs.

Yes. Get on with it already !!!!!!.

michaels

eraclea wrote: »

This makes for an interesting read, not sure if it was posted before.

"If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935

That is funny - I seem to remember the Brexit team announcing plans suggesting that up to a year be spent pre-negotiating the terms of Brexit before invoking article 50 so that it could be done in an ordered way about 2 weeks ago but perhaps that was my imagination.

I am glad the Brexit team have been taking a break since the vote, people who do politics 24/7/365 without a break to lead any sort of normal life scare me.

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

Petition 3m and counting

just 14m+ less than voted to leave.

mwpt

ess0two wrote: »

Its the norm, every generation pays for the current pensions, is Brexit gonna change this? Million dollar question, I'm 45 also perhaps over sold myself age wise.

Yes. but there has never been a pension and welfare deficit as high as we have now. And choosing to hobble our economy and cut immigration directly means the young will pick up the higher cost of that burden and removes the rather nice benefits to them of having the ability to live and work anywhere in the EU that their predecessors had.