If we vote for Brexit what happens

Kohoutek

CLAPTON wrote: »

It is blindingly obvious that they both have benefits and costs : why did you ever doubt that?

I never doubted that, it was just unclear from your obtuse posts whether you comprehended that, e.g....

CLAPTON wrote: »

I see benefit for the people of the UK in being in a mutual defense pact

I see no benefit in 27 nations deciding our VAT rates or how many migrants should be allowed into this country or whether we can expel rapists or murderers or how many hours one can work or our fisheries policies etc etc.

CLAPTON

Kohoutek wrote: »

I never doubted that, it was just unclear from your obtuse posts whether you comprehended that, e.g....

well sometimes one doesn't write a 100 page essay, dotting all the 'i's and crossing all the 't's.

so I should have said that, on balance and taking all things into account, I deem that membership of Nato has a net favourable balance to the people of the UK but that membership of the EU does not.

Did you really not understand that?

qwert_yuiop

Kohoutek wrote: »

It's relevant because being a member of NATO and the EU: (i) both involve giving away sovereignty; (ii) both have benefits; and (iii) both have disbenefits.

I assume you are deliberately being obtuse if you cannot see that.

I see no reason for any Brits (particularly me) to get killed if Russia invades Latvia. That strikes me as a disbenefit. Are you a native speaker of Latvian?

danlightbulb

BobQ wrote: »

Even if I accepted this argument, who is to say that the rEU will not say: we have two years then we can ditch this ungrateful lot. In that scenarion trade continues as before but the 8% they export to us gradually declines as they increase trade with Canada and others. Meanwhile our exports to the EU decline to 30% as they seek alternative markets.

This is my concern also. EU are being stubborn to change right now, and in my opinion we deserve better. But when it actually happens the EU might look inwards at itself and say 'ah well maybe we should change then', then push forward into new deals without us.

On the other hand if we stay then the EU won't have any reason to learn its lesson. Either way we lose.

I still think this is an issue of EU's own making. They are too stubborn to change.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

The last thing the precarious EU needs is uncertainty, after all youth unemployment is super high in several nations. As such and given we're already completely aligned with EU trading regulations, you will find a quick settlement / intention will be reached by all.


Some people are easily spooked, hold your nerve, all will be well. Notice investment has gone up in the last 24 months even though the referendum was pencilled in - follow the money.


The casino stock market full of thousands of traders that are able to exploit rumour and guess work will of course mean stock market volatility at the moment.


If we remain there are considerable risks, please bare this in mind. The Italian Banking system could collapse or need bailing out, Greece, Spain and Portugal are not out of the woods, the Turks hold a massive whip hand in terms of threatening to open flood gates if they don't get billions from us / VISA concessions




This comes down to fear of the unknown, those with imagination and confidence are happy to go forwards with independance

I was going to just ignore your post as it does not make sense. However I do need to say that "wishful thinking" is not a policy.

gfplux

buglawton wrote: »

So after 40 odd years in the EU, "Britain struggling economically and with very poor infrastructure"?

Didn't help much then did it?

!? What can I say.......... buglawton that is a typical response from the Clapton school of Blah Blah.
Everything is contex and when ANYTHING is taken out of context then it becomes Blah.

To put my remark back into context.
Please stop blaming the poor performance and failings of successive British Governments on the EU.

gfplux

westernpromise wrote: »

What I find quite interesting is how few UK commentators bother to look at what is being said overseas about Brexit impact. We hear a lot about the canonical Chinese buyer but does anyone trouble to find out what those buyers think?

Here's an article from the Brexit section of the South China Morning Post - yes, this is a very big story overseas and gets a whole section.

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1974507/brexit-not-seen-affecting-stability-uk-property-market

- which says that Remain = return of Chinese buyers in 2H2016, while leave = 2 years of uncertainty and then they'll be back. Chinese buyers like London because

a mature, stable property market, a well-developed, transparent law system, and advanced financial services have all contributed to the privilege and charm of the British market.

and the perception is that Brexit or no these won't change.

Brexit may provide a buyin opportunity for UK houses but as with 2008 to 2010 it may be a very short-lived dip and you will have to move quick, rather than standing by, greedily waiting fro a bigger fall and then missing the boat a la HPC.

So an article in the property section of a Chinese newspaper should be taken at face value when a similar article in a UK newspaper would be considered a puff to support the market given how much advertising money is spent by Developers/estate agents in both Country's.

Moby

Tromking wrote: »

I thought Gove smashed it on QT earlier. I don't get why some Bremainers are having a pop at Gove for being a Tory, they seem to see this referendum as an extension of a Labour/Tory battle in a normal election.
When the two biggest advocates for remain are the two most hated Tories in Cameron and Osborne, it just seems ridiculous to play the party political card. Perhaps Vote Leaves more cohesive and collegiate campaign is more to the publics liking and is now being reflected in the polls.

It's not ridiculous at all. Look at the bigger picture. At least Osborne and Cameron are on the middle of the road part of the Tory Party. The Brexiteers are right wing loons without exception who care nothing about working rights and public services. You'll be thanked of course for your position by people who are right wing anyway, but look at these politicians records. Surely you know about Grayling especially? They have nothing to offer working class people....we are the canon fodder for their person ambitions. They believe in unregulated free trade and evisceration of public services. Wolves in sheeps clothing!

gfplux

mayonnaise wrote: »

I'm jealous.
A EU passport will indeed become an invaluable asset after brexit.

One, yes only one of the reasons that wealthy Chinese buy property in the UK is as a base for their children to Go to university here and then obtain a British passport that presently would allow them free acces to all EU country's.
After Brexit that reason to buy will disappear.

gfplux

wymondham wrote: »

that's true, and visa-versa.

Most UK people live and work in the UK, so this aspect should surely take priority over the small amount of people who choose to live and work abroad?

It will also damage the daytime television shows.
"Escape to the Sun" etc will have to consentrate on sunny places outside the EU.