If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

It's always a disadvantage to plan for the unknown. The leave campaign 'roadmap' is nothing but a wishlist because they have no powers to turn wishes into reality.

It doesn't matter what Cameron's plans are in the event of a leave vote - he'll be toast and won't be able to implement any plans anyway.

I'm starting to think he might not survive a stay vote - they might need a new leader to try and unite the party. Theresa May probably until Boris takes over.

Thank you. Dave might survive either outcome if only for the purpose of stable government.

Filo25

wotsthat wrote: »

It's always a disadvantage to plan for the unknown. The leave campaign 'roadmap' is nothing but a wishlist because they have no powers to turn wishes into reality.

It doesn't matter what Cameron's plans are in the event of a leave vote - he'll be toast and won't be able to implement any plans anyway.

I'm starting to think he might not survive a stay vote - they might need a new leader to try and unite the party. Theresa May probably until Boris takes over.

I think Cameron needs a reasonably significant Remain win to survive, sneaking it won't be enough, and that is looking very unlikely the way the polls are leaning.

I'm not sure who would replace him as an interim PM, I think May has designs on the top job herself as a unity candidate so may not want to be in the interim role, which would probably go to a senior figure in the party who has no aspirations towards the top job.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

I think Cameron needs a reasonably significant Remain win to survive, sneaking it won't be enough,

Especially when the wider public comes to understand the deliberate manipulation of using only downside Treasury forecasts, which, when added to non Treasury forecasts ensure the meta study of Breixt still computes as negative.


The most negative Treasury model gave a 6% GDP fall, which they know is silly, but it helps skew the average.


Filo you're an intelligent thinking person, does it not trouble you that the Government should not wish to even consider any upside modelling? How is this complete ignoring of any upside modelling having the best interests of Britain at heart?

westernpromise

What I find quite interesting is how few UK commentators bother to look at what is being said overseas about Brexit impact. We hear a lot about the canonical Chinese buyer but does anyone trouble to find out what those buyers think?

Here's an article from the Brexit section of the South China Morning Post - yes, this is a very big story overseas and gets a whole section.

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1974507/brexit-not-seen-affecting-stability-uk-property-market

- which says that Remain = return of Chinese buyers in 2H2016, while leave = 2 years of uncertainty and then they'll be back. Chinese buyers like London because

a mature, stable property market, a well-developed, transparent law system, and advanced financial services have all contributed to the privilege and charm of the British market.

and the perception is that Brexit or no these won't change.

Brexit may provide a buyin opportunity for UK houses but as with 2008 to 2010 it may be a very short-lived dip and you will have to move quick, rather than standing by, greedily waiting fro a bigger fall and then missing the boat a la HPC.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

:rotfl:


And removing yourself from the world's biggest economy is going to isolate you from all this :rotfl:

Well given you cant even get past stage one of the Leave argument, I see why you have an oblique partially informed narrative.


1) We aren't leaving Europe........


2) Our neighbours will not wish to disrupt trade as this will hurt them immediately (Spain, Italy and France cannot afford even higher unemployment) and thus this is far more important than punishing us for some theoretical abstract future reason others may want to leave unless we are punished.
Disrupted trade = higher borrowing costs for EU


Leave has a can-do progressive intent, but someone of a highly conservative nature will always prefer an illusion of status quo - until they realise the status quo isn't the picnic they'd planned for. Change should be sometimes be countenanced.


I have friends in Australia - living there certainly doesn't imply one has any kind of heavy weight insight

Conrad

westernpromise wrote: »

a mature, stable property market, a well-developed, transparent law system, and advanced financial services have all contributed to the privilege and charm of the British market.

and the perception is that Brexit or no these won't change.

I argue we will be even more of a safe haven beacon when free of the EU bear trap.


I argued this after the last crash and got told I must be on drugs.


The point is to always wonder that if investors are put off Britain, what's the alternative? Italy? France? China? The US? Japan? They all have risks and Germany will be the EU payroll, so investing there holds massive risk


Britain will remain a safe haven, somewhere investors trust, and in such an uncertain world trust is everything.


If we exit, the remains will soon realise all their fears were just phantoms

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

Leave has a can-do progressive intent, but someone of a highly conservative nature will always prefer an illusion of status quo - until they realise the status quo isn't the picnic they'd planned for. Change should be sometimes be countenanced.

Messers Gove, Bozza and Farage are progressive apparently.

Man alive.

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

Especially when the wider public comes to understand the deliberate manipulation of using only downside Treasury forecasts, which, when added to non Treasury forecasts ensure the meta study of Breixt still computes as negative.


The most negative Treasury model gave a 6% GDP fall, which they know is silly, but it helps skew the average.


Filo you're an intelligent thinking person, does it not trouble you that the Government should not wish to even consider any upside modelling? How is this complete ignoring of any upside modelling having the best interests of Britain at heart?

I think a lot of the Remain campaign has been a mess quite honestly, it would probably have been more successful if they had just stuck to the real economic risks, without tying themselves to numbers which can vary depending on which forecaster you speak to.

That doesn't mean there aren't real economic risks, and you can see that with people with money in the game voting with their feet in some areas.

Mind you in the same way I don't get why the Leave campaign went with the £350m a week argument, its demonstrably wrong, and I don't think it would really have been much less effective if it had said £150m.

Osborne has embarrassed himself this morning to be honest, I agree there will be fiscal pain coming from a Brexit without full access to the Single Market, but we won't have a clue what our eventual settlement with the EU will be in the very near future so no need for a full fiscal tightening AT THAT STAGE (I'm not saying it might not be required down the line), obviously the economy will be hit early by the indirect effects, primarily uncertainty, but we won't feel the full effect for a while.

Like I've said though I will be voting Remain based on my own understanding of the situation and haven't been influenced particularly by either campaign in all honesty, and I will be voting Remain even though I stand to make about £2k on Brexit bets if we do leave

For what its worth I do think a Leave vote is marginal favourite at this stage.

Filo25

I will add though that I was also relieved this morning when I remembered that if we do vote Brexit I am entitled to dual nationality with Ireland (and both Ireland and the UK have a pretty relaved attitude to dual nationality), its always good to keep your options open!

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Messers Gove, Bozza and Farage are progressive apparently.

Man alive.

In what way are the 'remain' people more 'progressive ' : is that £9 minimum wage, apprenticeship levy, compulsory apprenticeships, help to buy, london transport fare caps, potential rent caps etc etc?