If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

StevieJ wrote: »

The Sun are backing Brexit, well remain have just gained all the votes in Liverpool.
It seems pretty obvious to me that inward investment that we as a nation depend on, will evaporate with no tariff free access to EU markets.

http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Newsroom/News-releases/15-05-27---UK-increases-lead-in-European-inward-investment-race-but-EU-Referendum-threatens-its-future-performance

why should a top country depend upon inward investment?
basically this means that
1. an increasing proportion of UK assetts are foreign owned
2. an increase proportion of profit /dividends are sent abroad
3. whilst the foreign currency funds our bigger and bigger balance of payment deficit this simply mean we are living above our means

so yes , very good at current time but we are mortgaging our future and the future of our children

an advanced country like the UK with an aging population should be investing abroad rather than depending upon foreign largess.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

10 EU bombshells being kept quiet until after referendum






http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3640078/It-s-not-just-plot-let-1-5-million-Turks-DANIEL-HANNAN-outlines-ten-bombshells-EU-s-keeping-secret-ve-voted.html

Not very secret, these EU plots if the Daily Mail, The Sun and The Express all know about them.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

What about my work? I work for one of the largest asset managers in the southern hemisphere and our economists and asset managers think that Brexit is a stupid idea.

And most of them also told us and Norway we should adopt the Euro, did not spot the 2008 Credit Crunch, and then told us Britain would be limping along the bottom for many years to come whilst plebs like me in 2011 were reporting a definite uptick in the real economy right in front of us.
The City is build on decades of intimate networking, you don't just up sticks to Frankfurt and hope all this local synergy re-appears.


Look at Rotherham and any number of those mass child abuse cases happening right under the noses of 'experts' for nearly 20 years, all in group-think mode.


Sure give me an asset manager for basic tasks and day to day trading but otherwise they have no great insight indeed you can find any number of tracker funds not managed by a sole that have done as well as any.


Anyway, what are the markets telling us about Brexit - not that much really - they know Britain will be even more a safe haven as an independent not exposed to Euro drudgery.


I'm not beguiled by so called experts unless of the practical real world variety.
Good friend of mine I was out with the other night wrote a seminal book on Economics, he's generally quite a contrarian but far more wise than most. He's for out.


A study of history shows us over and again that establishments are blind to the new.

Conrad

StevieJ wrote: »

It seems pretty obvious to me that inward investment that we as a nation depend on, will evaporate with no tariff free access to EU markets.

1) We & Norway were told the same when we failed to join the EU


2) Last 2 years inwards investment has proved very robust in spite of the referendum being in the dairy


3) German SE is seeking to buy ours regardless


4) Ex Chairman of Bundesbank said we will clearly get a very good deal


5) EU's number 1 issue is high unemployment and sclerotic growth. You must need your head examined if you think the EU will increase the price of its exports to us


6) Trade disruption by way of barriers would cause money lenders to the debt laden EU to put up their rates

Conrad

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Babble-Expert-Predictions-Believe/dp/0753522365


In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30.


In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed.


In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out.


Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.

Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

TrickyTree83

Conrad wrote: »

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Babble-Expert-Predictions-Believe/dp/0753522365


In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30.


In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed.


In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out.


Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.


And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack.


Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

I wouldn't take my child to a doctor who has diagnosed them incorrectly multiple times before, I'd avoid them like the plague itself. Yet they are experts in the medical field.

The point, if it was lost on some, was this.

You will make decisions in your life all the time that go against the grain of an "expert" opinion. In some cases if you take that expert advice you'll end up worse off. Like when people with a supposedly terminal medical prognosis, refuse to take those answers and search for that one expert who agrees with the patient and tries something different that works and they live, supposedly against all odds. Happens all the time. Happened with my mother in fact when she was diagnosed with osteosarcoma.

Perhaps because of having experienced this I am predisposed to not take experts advice purely on their word.

Conrad

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Perhaps because of having experienced this I am predisposed to not take experts advice purely on their word.

The take home point here is that those that predict the socio / economic future are particularly susceptible to misplaced confidence.


Other types of expert such as Doctors whilst not infallible have a much more sound domain expertise, not build on expansive fairy tales that crucially fail to spot CHANGE in Human behaviours


In the late 60's / early 70's many experts in their field told us a world famine which would bring down the west was all but upon us, the most famous of these was 'The Population Bomb'. All utterly ill conceived and wrong.


Once again their mistake was in not paying enough attention to CHANGE; That change came in the form of the green revolution of higher crop yields that had been quietly underway

Moby

StevieJ wrote: »

The Sun are backing Brexit, well remain have just gained all the votes in Liverpool.
It seems pretty obvious to me that inward investment that we as a nation depend on, will evaporate with no tariff free access to EU markets.

http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Newsroom/News-releases/15-05-27---UK-increases-lead-in-European-inward-investment-race-but-EU-Referendum-threatens-its-future-performance

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/jeremy-corbyn-attacks-wolves-in-sheeps-clothing-johnson-farage
An apt description.....how on earth do these headbangers have the cheek to claim they are defending workers rights and the NHS!

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/jeremy-corbyn-attacks-wolves-in-sheeps-clothing-johnson-farage
An apt description.....how on earth do these headbangers have the cheek to claim they are defending workers rights and the NHS!

couldn't agree more
only an idiot would think that a IRA supporter like Corbyn who also supports the economics of the lunatic in Venzeula, would be able to defend Uk workers rights.
Indeed, Corbyn thinks that the EU is a better ruler of the UK than labour would be in the UK parliament. ... well maybe we would all agree with that.

gfplux

chucknorris wrote: »

I see that you live in Luxembourg, what do they make of it over there?

Hello Chuck,
On Monday I discussed this with three ladies from my Nordic Walking group. They were two mature Luxembourgers and the Monitor who is a young (about 30) German women. No one in the conversation had any connection to the Parliament.
They were all shocked to hear that there was a strong possibility (my words) that Britain would vote to leave.
There was some dismay and a little anger.
All acknowledge that the EU is not perfect by a long way but living in Country's where the verbal memory of fighting taking place in your Village or Town is still very vivid they feel the EU has brought Peace to Europe.