If we vote for Brexit what happens

chucknorris

Mistermeaner wrote: »

I thought you were a QS ?

I am a chartered quantity surveyor, but I also own investment property which I manage myself and I also held a racecourse bookmakers permit from 1979 to 2009. I went racing myself about 2-4 times a week (every weekend, most of my holidays, every bank holiday (obviously, as they are the best days) and also evening meetings (went into work early and left early). I also had two representatives who attended the racecourse when I couldn't make it, and also to sometimes double up when I had two (good) meetings on the same day.

I loved doing it, but in the end I just couldn't cope with so many things demanding on my time, not to mention denying me a normal social life. Although I did give up mainstream QS'ing first (I only lecture now, which I started after giving up the bookmaking).

mrginge

Bit confused by Corbyn and his heartfelt and genuine support for the EU. His concern about the erosion of workers rights would seem to suggest one of two things.

A. In the event of brexit, he thinks all laws relating to workers rights will simply cease to exist.
B. The Labour Party is incapable of winning a general election.

Could someone help me to understand what the point of Jeremy Corbyn actually is?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

These 800,000 jobs are linked to trade with the EU single market,

It's not 800K jobs linked to trade with the EU, it's 3 million that are directly linked, and then there are the millions of additional indirectly linked jobs within the economy that those 3 million employed people spending their money creates.

The moment the UK votes for Brexit a number of things will happen immediately.

1) Business investment/job creation will fall off a cliff because uncertainty = risk

2) Capital flight will accelerate and the pound will crash - The BOE will be forced to step in with emergency measures

3) Asset prices will fall - and the wealth effect on consumer spending will kick into reverse

4) The media will pick up on all of the above and panic the masses, who will slash discretionary spending within the economy.

Any of those things in isolation would be recessionary in nature - all of them at once is significantly recessionary - and none of them will wait for the outcome of trade talks.

And then the excitement really begins with....

5) Massive job cuts as the recession kicks in...

And with this as a backdrop the EU will see our negotiating position is much weaker than the Brexiteers believed and start to play hardball - and then the real downturn starts.

If we vote Brexit - things will get very ugly very quickly.

Mistermeaner

∆this

Whether correct or not there's a risk this could happen

There is no clear upside

Why roll the dice?


Stay

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's not 800K jobs linked to trade with the EU, it's 3 million that are directly linked, and then there are the millions of additional indirectly linked jobs within the economy that those 3 million employed people spending their money creates.

The moment the UK votes for Brexit a number of things will happen immediately.

1) Business investment/job creation will fall off a cliff because uncertainty = risk

2) Capital flight will accelerate and the pound will crash - The BOE will be forced to step in with emergency measures

3) Asset prices will fall - and the wealth effect on consumer spending will kick into reverse

4) The media will pick up on all of the above and panic the masses, who will slash discretionary spending within the economy.

Any of those things in isolation would be recessionary in nature - all of them at once is significantly recessionary - and none of them will wait for the outcome of trade talks.

And then the excitement really begins with....

5) Massive job cuts as the recession kicks in...

And with this as a backdrop the EU will see our negotiating position is much weaker than the Brexiteers believed and start to play hardball - and then the real downturn starts.

If we vote Brexit - things will get very ugly very quickly.

I can't get on board with that at all when the worst forecast that's out there (and they've had time to think about it) is less than 50% as bad as what you're predicting. And that forecast has been decried as an overreaction. People on here saying we should listen to the BoE - and they say a recession would last "up to a year".

I think in all honesty you're overstating a heck of a lot. I've always agreed that there will be an initial shock, and in that I also have to accept that there is a chance of a small recession for a period. But what you are suggesting quite literally is economic armageddon, especially when at the start of the 2008 financial crash (the worst in modern history) only 65K properties were repossessed, a quite vast difference to the 500,000 you're claiming. Then in 2009 there were 58k and in 2010 there were 49k according to Shelter.

(http://england.shelter.org.uk/campaigns_/why_we_campaign/housing_facts_and_figures/subsection/?section=repossession_arrears#hf_3)

By the end of 2008 the unemployment rate was 6.4%. By the end of 2009 it was 7.8% and by the end of 2010 it was 8%. Based on your figures of an additional 1.7m unemployed that would put our unemployment rate at 12.3%.

TrickyTree83

Mistermeaner wrote: »

∆this

Whether correct or not there's a risk this could happen

There is no clear upside

Why roll the dice?


Stay

A risk that those economic figures he put forward could happen?

It's more likely I'll win the lottery than an economic catastrophe on that scale occurs.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's not 800K jobs linked to trade with the EU, it's 3 million that are directly linked, and then there are the millions of additional indirectly linked jobs within the economy that those 3 million employed people spending their money creates.

The moment the UK votes for Brexit a number of things will happen immediately.

1) Business investment/job creation will fall off a cliff because uncertainty = risk

2) Capital flight will accelerate and the pound will crash - The BOE will be forced to step in with emergency measures

3) Asset prices will fall - and the wealth effect on consumer spending will kick into reverse

4) The media will pick up on all of the above and panic the masses, who will slash discretionary spending within the economy.

Any of those things in isolation would be recessionary in nature - all of them at once is significantly recessionary - and none of them will wait for the outcome of trade talks.

And then the excitement really begins with....

5) Massive job cuts as the recession kicks in...

And with this as a backdrop the EU will see our negotiating position is much weaker than the Brexiteers believed and start to play hardball - and then the real downturn starts.

If we vote Brexit - things will get very ugly very quickly.

how does this tie up with your 1000s of posts that say once we leave and cut immigration we are going to experience massive shortage of labour?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's more likely I'll win the lottery than an economic catastrophe on that scale occurs.

Far from it.

The Treasury projects 4 quarters of recession with a 3.6% fall in GDP and an additional 820K people losing their jobs - however I should point out that the Treasury initially severely underestimated the size of the 2008 recession.

Don't forget the 2008 recession was only 6 quarters long - and we lost around 6% of GDP - and that caused unemployment to soar to 2.7 million from a base of 800k in 2007.

Around 1.9 million additional unemployed.

From a fall of just 6% of GDP.

And that with the BOE able to slash interest rates from 5.75% to 0.5% which greatly mitigated the harm.

The base level of unemployment today is slightly under 1.5m.

We have not yet fully recovered form the last recession.

And base rates are at 0.5% without nearly as much room to drop them.

The chances of a similar event happening in the immediate aftermath of a Brexit vote, given the BOE toolbox is almost empty, given the fragile state of the World economy, and the weaker state of UK unemployment already.... Well.... Lets just say the chances are probably about the same as the 1 in 3 you'd have of winning a quid with a scratchcard. Not the 1 in many millions of winning a major jackpot.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Far from it.

The Treasury projects 4 quarters of recession with a 3.6% fall in GDP and an additional 820K people losing their jobs - however I should point out that the Treasury initially severely underestimated the size of the 2008 recession.

Don't forget the 2008 recession was only 6 quarters long - and we lost around 6% of GDP - and that caused unemployment to soar to 2.7 million from a base of 800k in 2007.

so the treasury forecast was wrong but you believe them when it suits your arguments

Around 1.9 million additional unemployed.

From a fall of just 6% of GDP.

with 6-700,000 less immigrants coming in that will limit any redundancies plus the huge jobs vacancies being created by the demographic time bomb

so a best no change
at worse a small level of temporary unemployment

[/QUOTE]

michaels

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Far from it.

The Treasury projects 4 quarters of recession with a 3.6% fall in GDP and an additional 820K people losing their jobs - however I should point out that the Treasury initially severely underestimated the size of the 2008 recession.

Don't forget the 2008 recession was only 6 quarters long - and we lost around 6% of GDP - and that caused unemployment to soar to 2.7 million from a base of 800k in 2007.

Around 1.9 million additional unemployed.

From a fall of just 6% of GDP.

And that with the BOE able to slash interest rates from 5.75% to 0.5% which greatly mitigated the harm.

The base level of unemployment today is slightly under 1.5m.

We have not yet fully recovered form the last recession.

And base rates are at 0.5% without nearly as much room to drop them.

The chances of a similar event happening in the immediate aftermath of a Brexit vote, given the BOE toolbox is almost empty, given the fragile state of the World economy, and the weaker state of UK unemployment already.... Well.... Lets just say the chances are probably about the same as the 1 in 3 you'd have of winning a quid with a scratchcard. Not the 1 in many millions of winning a major jackpot.

Seems odd unemployment is so much higher with record numbers in employment and record participation rates.....