If we vote for Brexit what happens

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

it was you who said you disliked the english : I accept that it wasn't intended.
'little englander' is a racist, sterotyping phrase that is inappropriate

No it isn't..... it is a description of attitudes present in a section of the population. I choose to use it.

You KNOW that Corbyn / McDonnell/Abbot /Livingstone have been long term IRA supporters: you KNOW that that they consider the huge number of deaths in Soviet Union and China were worthwhile given the achievements.
You CHOOSE to support these people. It is totally fair to say you support these people. In fact you describe Corbyn as

This is a simple lie
.

OK you are in denial about his beliefs but if you choose tp post about politics it is totally fair to point put what his true beliefs are.
It is also appropriate to describe you as a fellow traveller.

You are lying about his beliefs because you are a bigot and continually stalk me on this forum. I find how you describe me as offensive in the extreme and I request that you stop trolling me.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/11/euro-2016-french-police-tactics-raise-fears-of-more-clashes-with-england-fans

'French riot police have charged with batons and fired teargas on England fans in the old port of Marseille, in the third day of violence ahead of Saturday evening’s tie with Russia.

After a relatively peaceful morning, violence erupted around 3pm. Around 60 riot police marched on fans as they congregated outside bars and hotels on the harbour.

It was unclear what sparked the tactic, but some fans responded by hurling bottles at the advancing police.'

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10310449/england-fans-criticised-as-marseille-cleans-up-after-second-night-of-violence-with-locals-and-police

'Labour MP Burnham said on Twitter: "As ever, the vast majority are let down by a minority.

"When you think of the terror threat and everything the French are dealing with, it makes behaviour of these England 'fans' even more embarrassing."

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

If we do vote for Brexit, it will be very interesting to see what direction future trade deals with both EU and non-EU countries go, will trade and the economy be the priority, or will slashing immigration drive decision, because there will certainly be times when those come into conflict.

I think most of the Conservatives in the Brexit camp would prioritise trade deals if it were up to them, but its a difficult balance to strike given that they know full well if they win then immigration will be the issue which won the vote for them.

In the event of a Brexit I would hope we make trade and the economy the priority, for me that is the opportunity. Before we invoke article 50 organise teams of trade negotiators. Identify areas where we will make concessions and areas that we cannot compromise on. Then negotiate with non-EU states prior to invoking article 50 so that the plans are already in place prior to coming out of the EU single market.

If any of this means conceding free movement, I would hope that we can negotiate that it's free movement of labour and not people. I think the section of Leave voters that are dead set against immigration would find that more palatable than a bog standard free movement of people situation that we have now. My own personal position - I'd be happy with a bog standard EEA set up. The rules in the EU will be made without us but if we were in and we object to every single rule we'd likely lose out in the voting at the table anyway. Plus you do have a veto on regulation within the EEA so I don't see that so called influence being such a massive loss.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

No rational person would ever enter a lottery where the maximum prize on offer is a few pence an hour on the wages of a fifth of entrants, but 1 in every 20 will lose their job, and 1 in every 50 will lose their house in the DIY Recession that will follow the lottery.

Yet that's exactly what the leave camp are offering.

If the latest polls are accurate I can only conclude around half of Britain are either deeply irrational or closet masochists.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No rational person would ever enter a lottery where the maximum prize on offer is a few pence an hour on the wages of a fifth of entrants, but 1 in every 20 will lose their job, and 1 in every 50 will lose their house in the DIY Recession that will follow the lottery.

Yet that's exactly what the leave camp are offering.

If the latest polls are accurate I can only conclude around half of Britain are either deeply irrational or closet masochists.

That's a deep recession you're talking about there. Where is the evidence for that? 500,000 repossessions and 1.7m job losses.

They are some large assumptions given that the jobs that Remain claim will be lost as a consequence of leaving the EU are only linked to EU exports. So if the trade terms never change - where are the job losses coming from? And then... if there's no significant job losses, where are the 500,000 repossessions coming from?

Edit: I had a quick look to see if I could find out how big this supposed recession would be.

1. The BoE seem to think it'll only last a year if it happens at all.
2. The shock and severe shock predictions from the government have a maximum (severe shock) job loss statistics of 800,000. That's some way off your figures. Also this forecast has been denounced as over the top.
(https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows)
3. Under "severe-shock" the projected fall in Sterling is 15%. Well that's significantly lower that the tariffs that would be imposed on us by the CET. So wouldn't exports to the EU become cheaper for the EU to buy if Sterling is worth less against the Euro?

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

No it isn't..... it is a description of attitudes present in a section of the population. I choose to use it.




This is a simple lie
.


You are lying about his beliefs because you are a bigot and continually stalk me on this forum. I find how you describe me as offensive in the extreme and I request that you stop trolling me.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/11/euro-2016-french-police-tactics-raise-fears-of-more-clashes-with-england-fans

'French riot police have charged with batons and fired teargas on England fans in the old port of Marseille, in the third day of violence ahead of Saturday evening’s tie with Russia.

After a relatively peaceful morning, violence erupted around 3pm. Around 60 riot police marched on fans as they congregated outside bars and hotels on the harbour.

It was unclear what sparked the tactic, but some fans responded by hurling bottles at the advancing police.'

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10310449/england-fans-criticised-as-marseille-cleans-up-after-second-night-of-violence-with-locals-and-police

'Labour MP Burnham said on Twitter: "As ever, the vast majority are let down by a minority.

"When you think of the terror threat and everything the French are dealing with, it makes behaviour of these England 'fans' even more embarrassing."

If you are in such total denial about Corbyn et al then it is for you to research the background : an adddict can only cure themselves.

however on an amusing note

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Englander

particularly nice is

Originally it applied to a wing of the Liberal Party opposed to expansion of the British Empire

yes I can see why you would have been in favour of expanding the Empire

and

It is particularly associated with opposition to the Second Boer War (1899–1902). For example, Arthur Ponsonby wrote of the Liberal leader Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman's opposition to the Boer War: "The impression one got of him from the Press in those days was… that he was an unpatriotic Little Englander".[2]

I'm sure you would have been passionate in support of the Boer war

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

They are some large assumptions given that the jobs that Remain claim will be lost as a consequence of leaving the EU are only linked to EU exports.

Nope - try again.

The jobs lost to trade with the EU are only the beginning.

First the jobs linked to trade with the EU go, then those newly unemployed people stop spending money, and then the jobs of a multitude of other people go as businesses cut back and start to fail because they have fewer consumers, and then the masses learn we're in a recession and people are losing their jobs so stop spending as much money, and then a whole lot of other jobs are lost as business cut back further, and so the vicious cycle continues...

Nothing happens in isolation.

A hit to one sector of the economy has contagion into many more sectors of the economy.

If we do end up out of the single market things will get very, very ugly much quicker than people realise.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nope - try again.

The jobs lost to trade with the EU are only the beginning.

First the jobs linked to trade with the EU go, then those newly unemployed people stop spending money, and then the jobs of a multitude of other people go as businesses cut back and start to fail because they have fewer consumers, and then the masses learn we're in a recession and people are losing their jobs so stop spending as much money, and then a whole lot of other jobs are lost as business cut back further, and so the vicious cycle continues...

Nothing happens in isolation.

A hit to one sector of the economy has contagion into many more sectors of the economy.

If we do end up out of the single market things will get very, very ugly much quicker than people realise.

so how did we survive a couple of years ago when unemployment was higher and all these horrifying effects were taking place?

presumably the awefulness of that period occured because we were part of the EU at the time.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nope - try again.

The jobs lost to trade with the EU are only the beginning.

First the jobs linked to trade with the EU go, then those newly unemployed people stop spending money, and then the jobs of a multitude of other people go as businesses cut back and start to fail because they have fewer consumers, and then the masses learn we're in a recession and people are losing their jobs so stop spending as much money, and then a whole lot of other jobs are lost as business cut back further, and so the vicious cycle continues...

Nothing happens in isolation.

A hit to one sector of the economy has contagion into many more sectors of the economy.

If we do end up out of the single market things will get very, very ugly much quicker than people realise.

You've ignored what I asked though, again.

These 800,000 jobs are linked to trade with the EU single market, if we vote to leave they're not going to disappear in a puff of smoke as soon as the government invoke article 50.

I'd like to refer you back to my original reply to you, if we could see some statistics to back up the 1.7m job losses and 500k repossessions claim it'd be great. Secondly I'd be interested to know what you thought about points 1, 2 and 3 in my edit.

chucknorris

gfplux wrote: »

Chuck, you are forgetting that currency traders are using this as a hedge. A bookmaker only balances his "book" with a small win for the house. Those odds reflect a lot of heavy money hedging the currency bet available in the market.
Nothing happens in isolation nowadays.

The "big" bookmakers might even be playing in the currency market as a way of hedging the money coming for remain. Who knows.

I'm not forgetting anything, I stand by everything I posted, I don't believe that the betting market has been distorted to that extent. By the way I was a bookmaker myself for about 30 years.

EDIT: Well done Wales!

Mistermeaner

I thought you were a QS ?