If we vote for Brexit what happens

michaels

Filo25 wrote: »

Opinium for the Observer.

Remain 44 (+1)
Leave 42 (+1)

(YouGov, online)

Remain: 42% (-1)
Leave: 43% (+1)

At the GE there was masses of group-think in the polling - all polling companies agreed and all series of polls were consistent - all this was actually much too regular considering their should have been random fluctuation within the 95% confidence intervals.......and of course they all turned out to be wrong.

So in many ways it is refreshing to see such a wide divergence between different company polls and between polls by the same company taken at different times.

However for predicting the result or even detemining which campaign gambit is effective it is pretty much useless....

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

The EU meanwhile are desperately trying to control the numbers of migrants from Africa and the Middle East.

Why wouldn't people want a better life. Enjoy what we do........

Getting the genie back in the bottle isn't going to happen anytime soon.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

They need to recognise the lack of control of immigration is something which concerns the public.

And the public need to recognise that without immigration the economy is screwed, and then there is no money to pay for all the things they've been promised.

EU immigrants are net contributors, they subsidise the native born, they don't steal jobs, and they drive up wages for the majority of people. Without them our national debt (and taxes) will rise, our economy will wither, and our services, pensions, healthcare, and benefits will rapidly become unaffordable.

If you think the public are "concerned" now about the minor inconveniences they suffer because of moderate levels of EU immigration then "you ain't seen nothing yet".... As their reaction to the inevitable and severe economic consequences of cutting EU immigration would be far, far worse.

Try cutting their pensions, slashing their benefits, reducing their services, defunding the NHS, raising their taxes, plunging them into a prolonged economic depression with no realistic hope of recovery for a decade or more, and then watch what real "concern" looks like.

Actually, never mind, maybe that's exactly what this country needs to learn a lesson.

Let the uneducated, the narrow minded, and the little Englanders vote for their own demise.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

The EU meanwhile are desperately trying to control the numbers of migrants from Africa and the Middle East.

They might have shut off the Turkey route. Now they are talking about 'carrot and stick' with countries like Lebanon and African states.

Clearly they have 'targets' in mind.

Actually I would say that's as much an implementation of concern about the rule regarding migrants not being able to support themselves and their family.

I wouldn't imagine most migrants from the Middle East and North Africa are likely to be net contributors to the economy at least in their early time in an EU country.

If you change your benefit system in ways which restricts benefits to new migrants, then that will have a natural impact to both reduce immigration and also change the balance of immigration as well.

In terms of dealing with asylum seekers fleeing from dangerous countries that is more a moral than economic argument for each nation in any case.

Filo25

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And the public need to recognise that without immigration the economy is screwed, and then there is no money to pay for all the things they've been promised.

EU immigrants are net contributors, they subsidise the native born, they don't steal jobs, and they drive up wages for the majority of people. Without them our national debt (and taxes) will rise, our economy will wither, and our services, pensions, healthcare, and benefits will rapidly become unaffordable.

If you think the public are "concerned" now about the minor inconveniences they suffer because of moderate levels of EU immigration then "you ain't seen nothing yet".... As their reaction to the inevitable and severe economic consequences of cutting EU immigration would be far, far worse.

Try cutting their pensions, slashing their benefits, reducing their services, defunding the NHS, raising their taxes, plunging them into a prolonged economic depression with no realistic hope of recovery for a decade or more, and then watch what real "concern" looks like.

Actually, never mind, maybe that's exactly what this country needs to learn a lesson.

Let the uneducated, the narrow minded, and the little Englanders vote for their own demise.

Unfortunately it appears immigration as an issue has become so toxic for many that the government has given up even trying to make a positive case for the impact of immigrants on the economy, which is a shame as there is clearly one to be made.

zagubov

The EU immigrants are no threat to us or our economy. We're not full up, and we need more people to produce goods and services and contribute to our economy. We need a very good grip on people with recent criminal records coming here and we need to co-ordinate our police intelligence with their EU counterparts.

I was leaning towards leave but then I remembered the bunch of chinless oxygen thieves we've got supposedly running this country. Over half of us didn't vote for them and what with the House of Lords well over half of them weren't even democratically appointed at all.

If we think about it too much the EU starts to look a lot more democratic.

Sapphire

zagubov wrote: »

The EU immigrants are no threat to us or our economy. We're not full up, and we need more people to produce goods and services and contribute to our economy. We need a very good grip on people with recent criminal records coming here and we need to co-ordinate our police intelligence with their EU counterparts.

I was leaning towards leave but then I remembered the bunch of chinless oxygen thieves we've got supposedly running this country. Over half of us didn't vote for them and what with the House of Lords well over half of them weren't even democratically appointed at all.

If we think about it too much the EU starts to look a lot more democratic.

I believe in democracy and do not want to be ruled undemocratically by Germany, which does not know our people (or those of other European countries, come to think of it), and has its own interests as its aim. I do not think that either the economical or cultural implications of rule by the EU are favourable to the people of Europe – quite the opposite in fact, and likely to affect people in an increasingly detrimental way. Sure, we should have economic agreements, but I certainly do not believe in 'ever-closer political union' – as a sovereign nation we can make agreements with other countries as we have always done, without having issues decided upon in a way that can be detrimental to our people (while suiting other countries in Europe, depending on the issue). I think it is crazy to try and make a political union between countries that have completely different national characters and histories, and it seems that European countries are increasingly resistant to such a union.

I do, however, think that most of the prominent individuals in the Tory and Labour parties are thoroughly discredited. We need a new party that will be for British people, not for some pie-in-the-sky antiquated ideology, or for the global financial elites.

Now, Zagubov: please could you respond with one of your usual witty remarks. I always look forward to those.

Generali

Sapphire wrote: »

I believe in democracy and do not want to be ruled undemocratically by Germany, which does not know our people (or those of other European countries, come to think of it), and has its own interests as its aim. I do not think that either the economical or cultural implications of rule by the EU are favourable to the people of Europe – quite the opposite in fact, and likely to affect people in an increasingly detrimental way. Sure, we should have economic agreements, but I certainly do not believe in 'ever-closer political union' – as a sovereign nation we can make agreements with other countries as we have always done, without having issues decided upon in a way that can be detrimental to our people (while suiting other countries in Europe, depending on the issue). I think it is crazy to try and make a political union between countries that have completely different national characters and histories, and it seems that European countries are increasingly resistant to such a union.

I do, however, think that most of the prominent individuals in the Tory and Labour parties are thoroughly discredited. We need a new party that will be for British people, not for some pie-in-the-sky antiquated ideology, or for the global financial elites.

Now, Zagubov: please could you respond with one of your usual witty remarks. I always look forward to those.

At least you get to vote for your MEP. You aren't given a chance to vote for your Head of State or the House of Lords.

Arguing that you don't get to vote for German MPs is a bit like complaining that you can't vote for the MPs outside your constituency.

happylucky

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/11/david-cameron-a-vote-for-brexit-will-cost-pensioners-dear-if-fun/

DC's just played the state pension card.

Moby

Sapphire wrote: »

I believe in democracy and do not want to be ruled undemocratically by Germany, which does not know our people (or those of other European countries, come to think of it), and has its own interests as its aim. I do not think that either the economical or cultural implications of rule by the EU are favourable to the people of Europe – quite the opposite in fact, and likely to affect people in an increasingly detrimental way. Sure, we should have economic agreements, but I certainly do not believe in 'ever-closer political union' – as a sovereign nation we can make agreements with other countries as we have always done, without having issues decided upon in a way that can be detrimental to our people (while suiting other countries in Europe, depending on the issue). I think it is crazy to try and make a political union between countries that have completely different national characters and histories, and it seems that European countries are increasingly resistant to such a union.

I do, however, think that most of the prominent individuals in the Tory and Labour parties are thoroughly discredited. We need a new party that will be for British people, not for some pie-in-the-sky antiquated ideology, or for the global financial elites.

Now, Zagubov: please could you respond with one of your usual witty remarks. I always look forward to those.

Where does this fear of 'being ruled by Germany' come from? To me its indicative of an obsession with the past and a fear of the future. The whole reason the EU emerged was to look positively towards the future. Many in England however embraced the EU relucantly, probably seeing it as something they could get something out of, (free trade). You join a club with this attitude and its not a good start! To the French and the Germans however the EU was much more than that......it was the means by which the future would be different from the past! The devastation of war etc.

Now I have no love for many of the institutions of my country. I feel closer to the EU dream than I do to the institutions in the UK. I think we suffer the discrimination of still being a class ridden society. I think the way the Commons and Lords operates is designed often to keep the proles in their place through the use of ceremony, 'tradition' etc.I don't agree with having a monarchy for the same reason. Not a popular thing to say today of course:).....but I suck it up out of respect for the values of other people and because I can still have what I see as important represented....(the values I describe above re. the EU). If we as a country turn our back on those things through a Brexit I fail to see how this makes us more democratic. To me it will just turn us into a country that continually obsesses about its past glories and alienates itself from the wider world. The Farage dream of us re-gaining our commonwealth markets etc is a pipe dream. These nations have moved on to total independence and new markets. Their memory of the UK is often as their colonial master. We need to be more honest with ourselves and decide when we vote...... are we voting for positive reasons regarding or future or negative reasons regarding our past.........because to me it is the future that we need to make the decision on!