If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

Following a vote to leave, Cameron will resign instantly.
I don't see why he would want to hang around to preside over the biggest economic clusterf*ck ever.
I expect something like "The people have chosen to withdraw from the largest free trade zone in the world, I respect that and humbly hand over to Gove/IDS/Boris/Priti Patel and Co. to guide us forward".

Amber Rudd and other prominent remains will say 'we've heard the people and will be doing all we can to ensure strong stable Government and to work through the transition that will see Britain make the most of the global opportunities as well as being great neighbours to our friends in Europe'


All the gloom and doom will be gone and you lot will wonder what all the fuss was about

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

I just don't think good trade deals with the rest of the world are as quick and easy to do, as some appear to.

If they were the whole world would be one giant free trade zone.

You're underestimating our deep reach and soft power influence, our safe haven trust status, and wide spread military involvements, the fact we're a major aid and charity player, the fact so much trade is rendered in English law, we absolutely will pile up the trade deals (even without any we'd be fine - loads of trade happens without them). Look at the Commonwealth nations in ASEAN and in China's back yard - there's a world of leverage there for us


My biggest failing is in my inability to get folk such as yourself to recognise the great opportunities that await us, to lift your consciousness to a new reality.


An acceptable EU trade deal will be done rapidly - the markets wont want any rade disruption in the already shakey EU - and we're already totally aligned on rules anyway.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Net migration 330K

Inflation 0.3%

Wage growth 2% (So rising in real terms, ie above inflation, by 1.7%)

Wage growth of inflation PLUS 1.7% is not "low"...

And it's certainly not evidence that we don't have a shortage of labour.

No, current levels of real wage growth show no upwards pressure on wages:
when we see sustained pressure over a few year of so then it will be time to look for the reasons.

I note that low wage inflation over a number of years, is totally unrelated to high levels of immigration, but a small rise proves that the demographic time bomb has arrived and we need a few million more migrants asap.

and how much do we need to increase income tax by to get our infrastructure fit for purpose : a tax to pay for immigration?

michaels

Look at this completely made up article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36500747
It suggests that European countries were already exploring the possibility of the UK staying within the single market but without free movement as they can not afford the economic consequences of full brexit - just what every remain supporter has told us is impossible.....

mystic_trev

I couldn't watch anymore than 10 minutes of that most cringeworthy debate, last night, before switching off. All I could conclude from the little I saw, was that the Remainers seemed to be doing a great job for promoting Brexit......

Moby

Rinoa wrote: »

Excellent news. We should have a clean break. Pointless leaving and then grudgingly accepting faux EU membership where virtually everything stays the same.

It's not 'excellent news' at all to alienate your closet neighbours and turn them against you. Make no mistake as I said France and Germany will not co-operate once we Brexit ......they cannot afford to....because they will worry about a domino effect of other states leaving and will have to make an example of us. They will therefore have to be less co-operative than they would ideally like to be for the sake of their own economies. Brexit will be bad news all round as a result. The pound will sink 20% and the markets are already getting shaky....the closer and closer the polls get.

Moby

Conrad wrote: »

What perplexes me with Remains is they don't seem to be able to imagine Camerons speech following a vote to leave - all the gloom and negativity, all the fear will have disappeared, it will all be a can-do approach and everything will kick into action and all those with concerns will wonder what an earth they were so worried about, indeed it will put a spring in their step as their minds suddenly open up to the boundless opportunities before us - our own seas to fish, a new global focus with meaningful robust trade deals, and still of course working with our neighbours

Whatever you are smoking mate....it must be goooood stuff!

TrickyTree83

Moby wrote: »

It's not 'excellent news' at all to alienate your closet neighbours and turn them against you. Make no mistake as I said France and Germany will not co-operate once we Brexit ......they cannot afford to....because they will worry about a domino effect of other states leaving and will have to make an example of us. They will therefore have to be less co-operative than they would ideally like to be for the sake of their own economies. Brexit will be bad news all round as a result. The pound will sink 20% and the markets are already getting shaky....the closer and closer the polls get.

I would propose it's looking less and less likely that we would get a bad deal from the EU. Especially if back door business negotiations are ongoing between UK and rEU firms.

This free trade deal with a "free movement of labour" option rather than "free movement of people" seems to be a good idea, however this means that the EU top brass HAVE to accept they've taken themselves down the wrong road as Donald Tusk was saying earlier in the month (or was it May?). And that they shouldn't be trying to protect the EU from the domino effect but they should be addressing why this is even happening in the first place.

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

Look at this completely made up article:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36500747
It suggests that European countries were already exploring the possibility of the UK staying within the single market but without free movement as they can not afford the economic consequences of full brexit - just what every remain supporter has told us is impossible.....

I'm not sure I've ever said anything is impossible, however given that any one EU nation has a veto on potential trade deals, and we need to get it through parliament in the UK I also wouldn't like to bet on the outcome of any EU trade talks would be.

If we said now our deal would be similar to a Norway or Switzerland deal I wouldn't lose much sleep over the whole referendum, but I really have no real idea what the Brexit camp wants from negotiations, that's a big part of the uncertainty, do they want a relatively free trade UK and willing to pay some price in terms of immigration (both with EU and non-EU markets to achieve that).

Or is the primary idea to effectively close the borders to immigration (targets in the low 10s of thousands), and then do what we can in terms of trade within that scenario.

From what I've read on the subject, India for instance would like some liberalisation of the visa regime for their workers as part of a deal, is that a price we would be willing to pay? I honestly have no idea.

So we come back to the issue "Leave" is generally having with ABC1s, life isn't too bad now, why rock the boat when we still have no idea what we will get beyond economic risk and some platitudes about it all working out in the end because Britain is awesome.

Moby

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I would propose it's looking less and less likely that we would get a bad deal from the EU. Especially if back door business negotiations are ongoing between UK and rEU firms.

This free trade deal with a "free movement of labour" option rather than "free movement of people" seems to be a good idea, however this means that the EU top brass HAVE to accept they've taken themselves down the wrong road as Donald Tusk was saying earlier in the month (or was it May?). And that they shouldn't be trying to protect the EU from the domino effect but they should be addressing why this is even happening in the first place.

We'll see.....well hopefully not as far as I'm concerned! The risks outweigh the advantages.....you then look at the history of Europe and the Brexit will be a move towards the old ways of petty nationalism and the attendant bigotry that goes with it.