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If we vote for Brexit what happens

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Comments

  • mwpt
    mwpt Posts: 2,502 Forumite
    Sixth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    Rinoa wrote: »
    Excellent news. We should have a clean break. Pointless leaving and then grudgingly accepting faux EU membership where virtually everything stays the same.

    You brexiteers can't even agree on what you want. So a large set of people are voting out of the EU, but you are not a single unified vote. Some want to stop migration almost completely, some don't want access to the EU market, some want to stay in the free trade zone, some want to keep free movement of people.

    It's just bizarre that we are basically handing our fates to a vote with absolutely no idea what we as a country will look like after the vote because the party campaigning for leave doesn't have a clue.

    If this was regular politics, that party would lose soundly.
  • mwpt
    mwpt Posts: 2,502 Forumite
    Sixth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    Conrad wrote: »
    EU's number 1 issue is high unemployment. Exits from the EU is merely an abstract future risk, and thus secondary to unemployment.


    No way will the French allow tariffs to cause their exports to us to be less competitive, especially with elections due.


    We will get a perfectly acceptable trade deal, no if's no buts, the last thing the EU needs is a self harming hampering of trade.

    So, they'll actively pursue a policy which sets incentives for other members to leave?
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    edited 10 June 2016 at 1:55PM
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    we have no significant shortage of labour as evidenced by low wage increases

    Net migration 330K

    Inflation 0.3%

    Wage growth 2% (So rising in real terms, ie above inflation, by 1.7%)

    Wage growth of inflation PLUS 1.7% is not "low"...

    And it's certainly not evidence that we don't have a shortage of labour.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    Conrad wrote: »


    Remain are treating adults like children by for example;


    + Conflating concern over MASS immigration with xenophobia / racism


    + By implying an independent state is somehow isolated / turning its back / pulling up the drawbridge - Sturgeons fave), when of course other independent nations are not isolated and are fully engaged with the world with no pulled-up drawbridge


    + Playing the Man, Boris, instead of debating the issues (last night)


    + Saying our long tradition of workers rights are only guaranteed thanks to Men in Brussels - the weakest of weak arguments (our rights are generally better than EU standards)

    I agree.

    I'd prefer to see a genuine positive argument for Remain, more along the lines of the economy probably. And I don't mean "we'll lose x, y and z if we leave", that's not positive.

    I'd love it if the EU came out and said "Yep, ok, we get the message. We need radical reform and not some token gestures. Lets work towards a more amicable relationship." and we could put the brakes on the referendum and see what comes out of that. I genuinely believe we weren't taken seriously during the negotiations by the EU top brass that a Leave vote could actually take place.

    Because to be honest I would rather stay in the single market and work with the EU on larger issues, moving back towards a free trade area of co-operating nations with absolute sovereignty. Rolling back Lisbon, Maastricht, and fundamentally changing the EU from what it is right now. It strikes me as the right idea badly executed.
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    mwpt wrote: »
    You brexiteers can't even agree on what you want. So a large set of people are voting out of the EU, but you are not a single unified vote. Some want to stop migration almost completely, some don't want access to the EU market, some want to stay in the free trade zone, some want to keep free movement of people.

    It's just bizarre that we are basically handing our fates to a vote with absolutely no idea what we as a country will look like after the vote because the party campaigning for leave doesn't have a clue.

    If this was regular politics, that party would lose soundly.

    It's a vote of no confidence in the EU project as it is and as it appears to want to continue. It doesn't have to be unified on any particular issue as long as it fits into the bracket of needing to leave to resolve it.

    That's the point of an in/out referendum.
  • Conrad
    Conrad Posts: 33,137 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 10 June 2016 at 2:02PM
    mwpt wrote: »
    So, they'll actively pursue a policy which sets incentives for other members to leave?




    They wont have a choice - no way will for example the French Govt with elections looming want trade hampered by tarrifs - you can imagine the British consumers response "poke it, lets all buy Chilean, Aussie and Californian wine", and there are hundreds of other examples such as the Germans selling us a million cars a year - of course they wont want that rich trade dented. Money talks. and the last thing the EU needs is loss of trade and additional economic decline (the bond markets that lend to the EU would not like tariffs one bit)


    We may get a slightly less good trade deal, but inconsequentially so, and then of course we can take back full control of our own economy, our waters and bloody well thrive in the world
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    edited 10 June 2016 at 2:11PM
    Conrad wrote: »
    They wont have a choice - no way will for example the French Govt with elections looming want trade hampered by tarrifs - you can imagine the British consumers response "poke it, lets all buy Chilean, Aussie and Californian wine", and there are hundreds of other examples such as the Germans selling us a million cars a year - of course they wont want that rich trade dented.


    We may get a slightly less good trade deal, but inconsequentially so, and then of course we can take back full control of our own economy and bloody well thrive in the world

    Incidentally by leaving the EU those wines would become cheaper as a result. So not only would French farming exports suffer because we could buy at world market prices with no CET, if they threw up tariff barriers it would be even more expensive yet again!

    It would be a bad policy two fold for the EU. There is almost nothing made in the EU that we cannot source elsewhere around the world apart from a desire for a particular brand (BMW, Siemens, Gucci, L'Oreal, etc...).

    If you need a car, American, Chinese, Japanese, etc..
    If you want wine, numerous places around the world.
    If you need sugar, the same.
    And this pattern is repeated over and over again with almost all trade goods.

    If you wanted a BMW, you would need to pay more for it. That's not going to go down well on the continent as sales will struggle if not fall, I know we keep saying it but it's so obvious. It's the reciprocal argument to the argument JP Morgan make about access to the EU market. If one is correct then the other is by definition correct too. Therefore it makes sense to have a deal between the two economic areas for mutual benefit. And if they're both incorrect, then there's no risk to leaving at all?
  • Conrad
    Conrad Posts: 33,137 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 10 June 2016 at 2:20PM
    What perplexes me with Remains is they don't seem to be able to imagine Camerons speech following a vote to leave - all the gloom and negativity, all the fear will have disappeared, it will all be a can-do approach and everything will kick into action and all those with concerns will wonder what an earth they were so worried about, indeed it will put a spring in their step as their minds suddenly open up to the boundless opportunities before us - our own seas to fish, a new global focus with meaningful robust trade deals, and still of course working with our neighbours
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    edited 10 June 2016 at 2:32PM
    mwpt wrote: »
    So, they'll actively pursue a policy which sets incentives for other members to leave?

    They should be asking themselves why that might happen, not what can they do to stop it!!!!

    Dear God. If there is a vote of no confidence from the UK people it sends a very clear message that they are getting it wrong on EU policy.

    The French and Irish said no to the EU Constitution, and they just ignored them anyway. The Dutch recently held a referendum on closer links with Ukraine, the EU as it stands has not changed its position on Ukraine despite this result. The Greeks held a referendum and an election and still got ignored.

    Time after time, vote after vote they have been told they are getting it wrong. Yet they press ahead. I'm genuinely shocked that the UK is the first to have this referendum because France, Ireland and Greece have all been disenfranchised when it comes to the EU.

    If only they would listen and fundamentally change their ideals so the continent can get on board and truly make it the best place in the world to live and work. Instead it's turned Greece into a basket case, and other countries are on the verge of following them.
  • Filo25
    Filo25 Posts: 2,140 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Conrad wrote: »
    What perplexes me with Remains is they don't seem to be able to imagine Camerons speech following a vote to leave - all the gloom and negativity, all the fear will have disappeared, it will all be a can-do approach and everything will kick into action and all those with concerns will wonder what an earth they were so worried about, indeed it will put a spring in their step as their minds suddenly open up to the boundless opportunities before us - our own seas to fish, a new global focus with meaningful robust trade deals, and still of course working with our neighbours

    I doubt it will be too "can do", he'll be off soon afterwards. ;)

    I know people on here seem to find it hard to believe but oddly enough I haven't been terrified to vote Remain by anything Cameron has said, and imagining whatever politician spin he puts on it afterwards isn't going to be changing my vote otherwise.

    Do you think if we vote to Remain, Boris and Gove are going to be saying the country is doomed, its all pointless and then resigning from politics?
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