If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

A very fair post, TrickyTree.

Too many people feel that the economy and indeed wider society as it stands doesn't work for them.

Personally I feel that story is a lot more than just immigration but its a powerful narrative which has found traction with a significant number, and it needs to be addressed.

Much of it feeds from the aftermath of the financial crisis, combined with ongoing trends in the global economy, unfortunately those issues aren't going away either, and austerity has restricted government's ability to respond to the challenges in a meaningful way.

It seems there's a common misconception that people who want to vote to Leave hate immigration, they're racist and/or xenophobic. Leading to the instant dismissal of their point of view by some.

My grandparents were migrants, my wife is a non-EU migrant and many of my friends of EU migrants. I can completely understand their (the Leavers) reasons for wanting to control immigration - not stop it, stopping it would absolutely be foolish (in my opinion not British) and that probably aligns with the perspectives of Britain First/BNP who I am deadly against.

It's not about keeping foreigners out for me. I've seen the living conditions of some EU migrants, it's quite frankly disgusting in some cases where predatory landlords take advantage of them, charging extortionate rent for something we wouldn't expect the council to put people in. This is down to a housing deficit which will only continue to grow as demand increases year on year. It's bad for us, it's bad for migrants and we should take control of the situation.

That said, if we left and went for an EEA option and retained free movement we absolutely must find a way of achieving decent living standards for all, not just UK citizens within that paradigm.

Filo25

Clapton, I have already said many times that I feel immigration has had an impact on House prices in London, I just don't share your belief that its the only thing driving them.

I have never denied there are winners and losers from large scale immigration, that is pretty much common sense.

Your view that it has brought no benefits whatsoever is laughable however, to even suggest that there is no upside in an aging country to bring in young, motivated, economically active people is clearly nonsense, I don't doubt there are people who believe it, but its still nonsense.

Filo25

Germany talking tough on post-Brexit negotiations already

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

No doubt the posturing from both sides would continue from both sides after a Brexit vote.

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

Germany talking tough on post-Brexit negotiations already

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

No doubt the posturing from both sides would continue from both sides after a Brexit vote.

Hmmm, he may say that now but when we suffer the EU will also suffer regardless of whether we are in or out. I guess he's found the money somewhere to prop up the dicey Southern European economies.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Clapton, I have already said many times that I feel immigration has had an impact on House prices in London, I just don't share your belief that its the only thing driving them.

Glad you agree that immigration has reduced the standard of housing in London.
I do NOT think that immigration is the ONLY factor although 45% (3-4 million) of the London population being foreign must have an emourmous effect


I have never denied there are winners and losers from large scale immigration, that is pretty much common sense.

Your view that it has brought no benefits whatsoever is laughable however, to even suggest that there is no upside in an aging country to bring in young, motivated, economically active people is clearly nonsense, I don't doubt there are people who believe it, but its still nonsense.[/QUOTE]

what do you see as the benefits ? what is clearly nonsense : what is their contribtuion to exports, to innovation, to increase in productivity, in high tech industry?
simply being young and willing to work for low wages is NOT self evidently a benefit.

given you belief they contribute would you welcome (say) a million young dynamic people each year or 2 million or unlimited?

we have no significant shortage of labour as evidenced by low wage increases : if a significant shortage developes in the future then we can welcome immigration at that time.

At the current time the inflow of cheap labour holds down wages and reduces any incentive fro businessess to improve productivity.
In addition, we have a worsening balance of payment problems due the continual increase in imports without a balancing increase in exports : whilst no-one cares at the moment there will be a day of reckoning

CLAPTON

CLAPTON wrote: »

Glad you agree that immigration has reduced the standard of housing in London.
I do NOT think that immigration is the ONLY factor although 45% (3-4 million) of the London population being foreign must have an emourmous effect

I have never denied there are winners and losers from large scale immigration, that is pretty much common sense.

Your view that it has brought no benefits whatsoever is laughable however, to even suggest that there is no upside in an aging country to bring in young, motivated, economically active people is clearly nonsense, I don't doubt there are people who believe it, but its still nonsense.

what do you see as the benefits ? what is clearly nonsense : what is their contribtuion to exports, to innovation, to increase in productivity, in high tech industry?
simply being young and willing to work for low wages is NOT self evidently a benefit.

given you belief they contribute would you welcome (say) a million young dynamic people each year or 2 million or unlimited?

we have no significant shortage of labour as evidenced by low wage increases : if a significant shortage developes in the future then we can welcome immigration at that time.

At the current time the inflow of cheap labour holds down wages and reduces any incentive fro businessess to improve productivity.
In addition, we have a worsening balance of payment problems due the continual increase in imports without a balancing increase in exports : whilst no-one cares at the moment there will be a day of reckoning[/QUOTE]

Rinoa

Filo25 wrote: »

Germany talking tough on post-Brexit negotiations already

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

No doubt the posturing from both sides would continue from both sides after a Brexit vote.

Excellent news. We should have a clean break. Pointless leaving and then grudgingly accepting faux EU membership where virtually everything stays the same.

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

Germany talking tough on post-Brexit negotiations already

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

No doubt the posturing from both sides would continue from both sides after a Brexit vote.

Sounds like someone's getting a bit twitchy about their power base being dismantled.

Good.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

Germany talking tough on post-Brexit negotiations already

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

No doubt the posturing from both sides would continue from both sides after a Brexit vote.

EU's number 1 issue is high unemployment. Exits from the EU is merely an abstract future risk, and thus secondary to unemployment.


No way will the French allow tariffs to cause their exports to us to be less competitive, especially with elections due.


We will get a perfectly acceptable trade deal, no if's no buts, the last thing the EU needs is a self harming hampering of trade.

Conrad

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It seems there's a common misconception that people who want to vote to Leave hate immigration, they're racist and/or xenophobic. Leading to the instant dismissal of their point of view by some.

My grandparents were migrants, my wife is a non-EU migrant and many of my friends of EU migrants.

Remain are treating adults like children by for example;


+ Conflating concern over MASS immigration with xenophobia / racism


+ By implying an independent state is somehow isolated / turning its back / pulling up the drawbridge - Sturgeons fave), when of course other independent nations are not isolated and are fully engaged with the world with no pulled-up drawbridge


+ Playing the Man, Boris, instead of debating the issues (last night)


+ Saying our long tradition of workers rights are only guaranteed thanks to Men in Brussels - the weakest of weak arguments (our rights are generally better than EU standards)